But after reading it I got to thinking about a recent writing assignment I got from the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) on the demise of the classic Mayan civilization. One of the take home messages I got from talking with the SFI folks is that nothing is ever so simple as some of the press on this new climate record suggests. These researchers are experts at modeling complex adaptive systems of all kinds – from cells to civilizations. They love the stuff that gives the rest of us headaches: big messy complicated systems that change a lot and have way too many variables. It's like candy to them.
Their take on the demise of the Classic Maya civilization in the Central Maya Lowlands in the ninth century A.D. -- reported in the August 20, 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science -- is that while climate was important, it was not the only factor.
“There is no monolithic period of collapse, but a lot of variability,” co-author and President of the Santa Fe Institute Jerry Sabloff told me. “What we see are many variable patterns. The only way to explain the variability is to take a complex systems view.”
Sabloff and Arizona State University geographer B. L. Turner wove together a complex, data-rich history of Classic Maya agricultural practices and the demands on ecosystem services that stressed the environment and made it vulnerable for trouble when one particular drought hit.
In other words, maybe the drought wouldn't have done it if the Maya had managed some other things differently. Of course, the Classic Maya probably had limited ability to assess the long-term effects of their farming practices and likewise perhaps had no reason to believe the climate could change so dramatically. It was just bad luck, you might say.
Read more at Discovery News
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