Extremely hot days are warming twice as fast as average summer days in North-West Europe

New study analysed data on near-surface air temperatures recorded for North-West Europe over the past 60 years. The findings show that the maximum temperature of the hottest days is increasing at twice the rate of the maximum temperature of average summer days. The results highlight the need for urgent action by policy makers to adapt essential infrastructure to the impacts of climate change.

New research led by the University of Oxford has found that climate change is causing the hottest days in North-West Europe to warm at double the rate of average summer days. The difference in trends is most pronounced for England, Wales, and Northern France. Worryingly, while current climate models accurately predict the rate of warming for average days, they underestimate the rate at which the hottest days are warming compared to observations.

According to lead researcher Dr Matthew Patterson, from the University of Oxford's Department of Physics, the results indicate that extreme heat events -- such as the UK's record-breaking heatwave last summer -- are likely to become more regular. Dr Patterson said: 'These findings underline the fact that the UK and neighbouring countries are already experiencing the effects of climate change, and that last year's heatwave was not a fluke. Policy makers urgently need to adapt their infrastructure and health systems to cope with the impacts of higher temperatures.'

For the study, published today in Geographical Research Letters, Dr Patterson analysed data from the past 60 years (1960-2021) recording the maximum daily temperature, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Although the maximum recorded temperature varied between years, the overall trend clearly showed that the hottest days for North-West Europe had warmed at twice the rate of average summer days. For England and Wales, the average summer day increased by approximately 0.26°C per decade, whilst the hottest day increased by around 0.58°C per decade. However, this faster warming of the hottest days was not observed to this extent elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere.

The reason causing this faster warming of the hottest days relative to average summer days is not yet understood. According to Dr Patterson, this may be due to the hottest summer days in North-West Europe often being linked to hot air transported north from over Spain. Because Spain is warming faster than North-West Europe, this means that air carried in from this region is ever more extreme relative to the ambient air in North-West Europe. The hottest days of 2022, for instance, were driven by a plume of hot air carried north from Spain and the Sahara. However, further research is needed to verify this.

Dr Patterson added: 'Understanding the warming rate of the hottest days will be important if we are to improve climate model simulation of extreme events and make accurate predictions about the future intensity of such events. If our models underestimate the rise in extreme temperatures over the coming decades, we will underestimate the impacts this will have.'

Extreme heat has significant negative impacts on many different aspects of society, including energy and transport infrastructure, and agriculture. It also exacerbates conditions including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, putting a strain on health services.

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Rhino conservation in Nepal creates a burden for communities, infrastructure and other species, study warns

Efforts to conserve rhinos in Nepal have put a burden on communities, infrastructure and other wildlife in Nepal, a new study warns.

Successful anti-poaching and conservation campaigns in the country has resulted in increases in tourist numbers and rhino populations, but also increased incidences of human and animal casualties.

Locals from the area reported being proud to share spaces with rhinos, and wanting to live together with them, but were aware of the dangers. People who faced crop loss or fatality were overwhelmingly negative about living with rhinos; however, they still ‘strongly’ supported conservation legislation. They reported widescale dissatisfaction with the official compensation scheme for losses suffered.

The study, by Michelle Szydlowski, from the University of Exeter, is published in the Journal of Ecotourism and is the result of observations in Sauraha, Nepal. It describes the “disconnect” of people, especially tourists, wanting to “save” wild animals but also having a lack of consideration of their behaviour. The same people fail to consider the cost to other species who have to adapt to live with the rhinos.

Dr Szydlowski, who has worked in rhino conservation and elephant health and welfare in Nepal for the past decade, said: “Hand reared individuals bring in tourists, and while tourism may provide much-needed community income, it also creates a burden on existing infrastructure and may further commodify wildlife or encourage the conversion of wild habitats into tourist housing, restaurants, and shops.

“Nepal’s success in protecting native rhinos has led to increases in human-rhino conflict and changing perspectives on who has the greatest claim to anthropocentric spaces. As rhino and human populations continue to grow, there is a need to reconsider the impacts of tourism.

“The rhinos have moved beyond their physical and species boundaries to exist alongside humans in shared landscapes. Perhaps it is time to re-examine this parallel existence and find new ways to truly coexist within such communities.”

Dr Szydlowski interviewed members of the local community near Chitwan National Park, nature guides, tourists, National Trust for Nature Conservation (NTNC) staff, and government employees. She also collected information about the animals and how they had been cared for and kept in touch with interviewees for a year afterwards.

The presence of human infrastructure has not deterred rhinos – whether human-reared or wild - from using the farms, gardens, or streets of town as quick passageways. Locals post videos of passing rhinos on social media, hoping to encourage tourists to visit their shops and hotels.

Mostly wild rhinos pay little attention to shop or hotel guests as they pass through town, and most are not considered dangerous. Locals said males made a noise when they didn’t want to interact, but wild females, particularly with young, were more unpredictable.

Injuries and fatalities from wild rhino occur when humans enter the rhinos’ habitat, not the other way around. Since 1998, rhinos have been responsible for 55 human fatalities and 180 injuries in the area.

Indigenous human populations which once lived within the area now were forcibly relocated when governmental focus shifted toward wildlife conservation. These populations now face the greatest number of fatalities from negative encounters with wildlife.

Dr Szydlowski said: “Zones have been set aside for local use, they rarely produce enough to support the number of people living there, nor are local people involved in decision making or land-use planning. People living there reported feeling that they were ‘less important’ than local wildlife, and experience increasing competition with wildlife for land, forest products, and funding.

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