New study unveils 16,000 years of climate history in the tropical Andes

A new study that explores ancient temperatures and rainfall patterns in the tropical Andes of South America has revealed how 16,000 years of climate history in this part of the world was driven by carbon dioxide levels and ocean currents from global climate events.

Led by Brown University researchers, the study marks the first high-resolution temperature record covering the past 16,000 years in the tropical Andes and could help scientists predict and mitigate future climate impacts in tropical regions of the planet. The work is described in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.

"Usually when we study climate change in the past, we emphasize the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere because of the outsized role they play in affecting climates all over the globe," said Boyang Zhao, a scientist in Brown's Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences and the study's first author. "One of the biggest questions we are getting at is what are the driving factors behind temperature history in this part of the tropics, so that we can begin to potentially apply that data and knowledge to other tropical regions."

Along with future implications, the new study provides a unique look at the way distinct and distant parts of the world influence temperature and weather elsewhere, emphasizing how regional climates are connected to global climate changes.

"Our evidence here suggests that temperatures in this region of the world are more influenced by the Southern Hemisphere -- so places like Antarctica," Zhao said.

The study focused on an analysis of sediment samples from Laguna Llaviucu, a lake located in Ecuador's Cajas National Park. The measurements from the sediment samples showed that temperature variations in the tropical Andes closely aligned with climate events that saw the planet's temperatures rise and fall during the past 16,000 years.

Overall, the evidence showed that the main driver in these temperature fluctuations was the concentration of CO2. Researchers saw evidence that the tropical Andean temperatures track with Antarctic temperatures, which are mainly controlled by carbon dioxide concentrations. The findings showed that about 17,000 to 14,000 years ago, tropical Andean temperatures rose when carbon dioxide increased and that the temperatures remained relatively stable about 12,000 years ago when carbon dioxide levels remained relatively stable.

Zhao said that the findings support previous research identifying carbon dioxide as a key driver of global temperature changes since the last Ice Age.

The study also highlighted the role of ocean currents that move warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. During a cooling period known as the Antarctic Cold Reversal 14,500 years ago, the northward current was strengthened, causing it to transport more heat northward and cool sea surface temperatures in the south. The researchers found that this cooling effect extended to the tropical Andes.

To reconstruct past climate conditions, the researchers analyzed lipid biomarkers and hydrogen isotopes collected in 2009 from Laguna Llaviucu by scientist Mark Bush from the Florida Institute of Technology. Lipid biomarkers are chemical compounds that provide clues about past temperatures and rainfall patterns. The high-resolution data, combined with accurate dating techniques, allowed the team to create a detailed timeline of climate changes over the past 16,000 years.

According to the researchers, this is the first time organic biomarkers have been used to put together a quantitative climate history for tropical South America. It is traditionally difficult to reconstruct temperatures from the tropics.

The study also points out a number of regional differences in temperature patterns, like how the tropical Andes and Southeast Asia cooled during certain historical periods while other regions like Africa did not.The research also shows how local factors may help to counteract the global effects of rising CO2 levels by looking at differences between past temperature models and what the sediment data show.

The researchers from Brown plan to continue to explore past temperature patterns in this part of the world that historically lacks complete climate records.

"Mountain environments are some of the most sensitive regions on Earth to climate change," said James Russell, a professor of Earth, environmental, and planetary sciences at Brown who oversaw the new research. "In fact, in the near future, high tropical mountains, such as the Andes, are predicted to experience a rate of warming second only to the Arctic, which is the fastest warming part of the planet."

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Tiny plastic particles are found everywhere

It's not the first study on microplastics in Antarctica that researchers from the University of Basel and the Alfred-Wegener Institute (AWI) have conducted. But analysis of the data from an expedition in spring 2021 shows that environmental pollution from these tiny plastic particles is a bigger problem in the remote Weddell Sea than was previously known.

The total of 17 seawater samples all indicated higher concentrations of microplastics than in previous studies. "The reason for this is the type of sampling we conducted," says Clara Leistenschneider, doctoral candidate in the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Basel and lead author of the study.

The current study focused on particles measuring between 11 and 500 micrometers in size. The researchers collected them by pumping water into tanks, filtering it, and then analyzing it using infrared spectroscopy. Previous studies in the region had mostly collected microplastic particles out of the ocean using fine nets with a mesh size of around 300 micrometers. Smaller particles would simply pass through these plankton nets.

The results of the new study indicate that 98.3 percent of the plastic particles present in the water were smaller than 300 micrometers, meaning that they were not collected in previous samples. "Pollution in the Antarctic Ocean goes far beyond what was reported in past studies," Leistenschneider notes. The study appears in the journal Science of the Total Environment.

What role do ocean currents play?

The individual samples were polluted to different extents. The offshore samples, which were collected north of the continental slope and the Antarctic Slope Current, contained the highest concentrations of microplastics. The reasons for this are not conclusively known. It may be that the ice that tends to form near the coast retains the tiny plastic particles, and they are only released back into the water when the ice melts. It could also be the case that ocean currents play a role. "They might work like a barrier, reducing water exchange between the north and south," suggests Gunnar Gerdts from the AWI in Heligoland, Germany.

What is certainly true is that ocean currents are an important factor and the subject of many open questions in the field. So far the researchers have only examined water samples from the ocean surface, but not from lower depths. This is primarily due to limited time on the ship expeditions for taking samples and to equipment with insufficient pumping capacity. "It would nonetheless be revealing to analyze such data, since the deep currents differ greatly from the surface currents and thermohaline circulation leads to exchange with water masses from northern regions," Leistenschneider says.

It is also still unclear how the microplastics make their way to the Weddell Sea in the first place and whether they ever leave the region. The strong Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which flows all the way around the Antarctic Ocean at a latitude of about 60° south, might prevent their departure. The researchers are also not yet able to say conclusively where the microplastics originate. Possible sources include regional ship traffic from the tourism, fishing and research industries, as well as research stations on land. However, the microplastics might also make their way to Antarctica from other regions via ocean currents or atmospheric transport.

Research leads to awareness

Clara Leistenschneider plans to focus next on analyzing the sediment samples she collected during the same expedition. This should provide information about how microplastics are accumulating on the sea floor, which is home to unique and sensitive organisms and is a breeding ground for Antarctic icefish (Bovichtidae).

With the increase in tourism in the Antarctic Ocean, pollution may increase even more in the future, further impacting the environment and the food chain.

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Gloomy climate calculation: Scientists predict a collapse of the Atlantic ocean current to happen mid-century

Important ocean currents that redistribute heat, cold and precipitation between the tropics and the northernmost parts of the Atlantic region will shut down around the year 2060 if current greenhouse gas emissions persist. This is the conclusion based on new calculations from the University of Copenhagen that contradict the latest report from the IPCC.

Contrary to what we may imagine about the impact of climate change in Europe, a colder future may be in store. In a new study, researchers from the University of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institute and Department of Mathematical Sciences predict that the system of ocean currents which currently distributes cold and heat between the North Atlantic region and tropics will completely stop if we continue to emit the same levels of greenhouse gases as we do today.

Using advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data from the last 150 years, the researchers calculated that the ocean current, known as the Thermohaline Circulation or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), will collapse -- with 95 percent certainty -- between 2025 and 2095. This will most likely occur in 34 years, in 2057, and could result in major challenges, particularly warming in the tropics and increased storminess in the North Atlantic region.

"Shutting down the AMOC can have very serious consequences for Earth's climate, for example, by changing how heat and precipitation are distributed globally. While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the globe as a whole becomes warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this shutdown will contribute to an increased warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already given rise to challenging living conditions," says Professor Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute.

"Our result underscores the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible," says the researcher.

The calculations, just published in the scientific journal, Nature Communications, contradict the message of the latest IPCC report, which, based on climate model simulations, considers an abrupt change in the thermohaline circulation very unlikely during this century.

Early warning signals present

The researchers' prediction is based on observations of early warning signals that ocean currents exhibit as they become unstable. These Early Warning Signals for the Thermohaline Circulation have been reported previously, but only now has the development of advanced statistical methods made it possible to predict just when a collapse will occur.

The researchers analysed sea surface temperatures in a specific area of the North Atlantic from 1870 to present days. These sea surface temperatures are "fingerprints" testifying the strength of the AMOC, which has only been measured directly for the past 15 years.

"Using new and improved statistical tools, we've made calculations that provide a more robust estimate of when a collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation is most likely to occur, something we had not been able to do before," explains Professor Susanne Ditlevsen of UCPH's Department of Mathematical Sciences.

The thermohaline circulation has operated in its present mode since the last ice age, where the circulation was indeed collapsed. Abrupt climate jumps between the present state of the AMOC and the collapsed state has been observed to happen 25 times in connection with iceage climate. These are the famed Dansgaard-Oeschger events first observed in ice cores from the Greenlandic ice sheet. At those events climate changes were extreme with 10-15 degrees changes over a decade, while present days climate change is 1.5 degrees warming over a century.

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Deep ocean currents around Antarctica headed for collapse

The deep ocean circulation that forms around Antarctica could be headed for collapse, say scientists.

Such decline of this ocean circulation will stagnate the bottom of the oceans and generate further impacts affecting climate and marine ecosystems for centuries to come.

The results are detailed in a new study coordinated by Scientia Professor Matthew England, Deputy Director of the ARC Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS) at UNSW Sydney. The work, published today in Nature, includes lead author Dr. Qian Li -- formerly from UNSW and now at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) -- as well as co-authors from the Australian National University (ANU) and CSIRO.

Cold water that sinks near Antarctica drives the deepest flow of the overturning circulation -- a network of currents that spans the world's oceans. The overturning carries heat, carbon, oxygen and nutrients around the globe. This influences climate, sea level and the productivity of marine ecosystems.

"Our modelling shows that if global carbon emissions continue at the current rate, then the Antarctic overturning will slow by more than 40 per cent in the next 30 years -- and on a trajectory that looks headed towards collapse," says Prof England.

Modelling the deep ocean

About 250 trillion tonnes of cold, salty, oxygen-rich water sinks near Antarctica each year. This water then spreads northwards and carries oxygen into the deep Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

"If the oceans had lungs, this would be one of them," Prof England says.

The international team of scientists modelled the amount of Antarctic deep water produced under the IPCC 'high emissions scenario', until 2050.

The model captures detail of the ocean processes that previous models haven't been able to, including how predictions for meltwater from ice might influence the circulation.

This deep ocean current has remained in a relatively stable state for thousands of years, but with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, Antarctic overturning is predicted to slow down significantly over the next few decades.

Impacts of reduced Antarctic overturning

With a collapse of this deep ocean current, the oceans below 4000 metres would stagnate.

"This would trap nutrients in the deep ocean, reducing the nutrients available to support marine life near the ocean surface," says Prof England.

Co-author Dr Steve Rintoul of CSIRO and the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership says the model simulations show a slowing of the overturning, which then leads to rapid warming of the deep ocean.

"Direct measurements confirm that warming of the deep ocean is indeed already underway," says Dr Rintoul. The study found melting ice around Antarctica makes the nearby ocean waters less dense, which slows the Antarctic overturning circulation. The melt of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is expected to continue to accelerate as the planet warms.

"Our study shows that the melting of the ice sheets has a dramatic impact on the overturning circulation that regulates Earth's climate," says Dr Adele Morrison, also from ACEAS and the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences.

"We are talking about the possible long-term extinction of an iconic water mass," says Prof England.

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Researchers go 'outside the box' to delineate major ocean currents

For the first time University of Rochester researchers have quantified the energy of ocean currents larger than 1,000 kilometers. In the process, they and their collaborators have discovered that the most energetic is the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, some 9,000 kilometers in diameter.

The team, led by Hussein Aluie, associate professor of mechanical engineering, used the same coarse-graining technique developed by his lab to previously document energy transfer at the other end of the scale, during the "eddy-killing" that occurs when wind interacts with temporary, circular currents of water less than 260 kilometers in size.

These new results, reported in Nature Communications, show how the coarse-graining technique can provide a new window for understanding oceanic circulation in all its multiscale complexity, says lead author Benjamin Storer, a research associate in Aluie's Turbulence and Complex Flow Group. This gives researchers an opportunity to better understand how ocean currents function as a key moderator of the Earth's climate system.

The team also includes researchers from the University of Rome Tor Vergata, University of Liverpool, and Princeton University.

Traditionally, researchers interested in climate and oceanography have picked boxes in the ocean 500 to 1,000 square km in size. These box regions, which were assumed to represent the global ocean, were then analyzed using a technique called Fourier analysis, Aluie says.

"The problem is, when you pick a box, you are already limiting yourself to analyzing what's in that box," Aluie says. "You miss everything at a larger scale.

"What we are saying is, we don't need a box; we can think outside the box."

When the researchers use the coarse-graining technique to "blur" satellite images of global circulation patterns, for example, they find that "we gain more by settling for less," Aluie says. "It allows us to disentangle different-sized structures of ocean currents in a systematic way."

He draws an analogy to removing your eyeglasses, then looking at a very crisp, detailed image. It will appear to be blurred. But as you look through a succession of increasing stronger eyeglasses, you will often be able to detect various patterns at each step that would otherwise be hidden in the details.

In essence, that is what coarse graining allows the researchers to do: quantify various structures in ocean current and their energy "from the smallest, finest scales to the largest," Aluie says.

Aluie credits Storer for further developing and refining the code; it has been published so other researchers can use it.

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