How salt from the Caribbean affects our climate

The distribution of salt by ocean currents plays a crucial role in regulating the global climate. This is what researchers from Dalhousie University in Canada, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) and MARUM -- Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen have found in a new study. They studied natural climate anomalies, including the so-called Little Ice Age. This cold period from the 15th to the mid-19th century led to poor harvests, famine and disease in Europe. Although the Little Ice Age is one of the most studied periods in recent history, the underlying climatic mechanisms remain controversial.

"Looking at recent, natural climate anomalies helps to understand the processes and mechanisms that human-induced global warming may trigger," says Dr Anastasia Zhuravleva, lead author of the study. She was a PhD student at GEOMAR and received the Annette Barthelt Prize for her dissertation in 2019. She then worked as a post-doctoral researcher at GEOMAR and Dalhousie University, where the study was completed.

"Researchers often consider an increase in sea ice extent and desalination in the subpolar North Atlantic as possible triggers for past cold periods, but processes in the tropical Atlantic appear to be equally important," says Dr Zhuravleva. "In fact, in contrast to the northern and mid-latitudes, there is little information on these recent climate events from the subtropical-tropical Atlantic and their impact on regions in the Northern Hemisphere," adds Dr Henning Bauch, paleoclimatologist at AWI and GEOMAR, co-initiator and co-author of the study. "This is where our research comes in."

So, what happened in the tropical Atlantic during historical climate anomalies, and how might potential changes there have affected ocean circulation and climate much further north? To answer these questions, the team worked on a sediment profile from the southern Caribbean and reconstructed the salinity and temperature of the surface water over the last 1700 years. Among other things, the researchers determined the isotopic and elemental composition of the calcareous shells of plankton.

The results show a cooling of about 1°C during the Little Ice Age. "It is a significant temperature change for this region," says Dr Mahyar Mohtadi, co-author of the study and head of the Low Latitude Climate Variability group at MARUM. "Particularly noteworthy is the occurrence of another pronounced cooling for the 8th-9th centuries. Colder temperatures in the otherwise warm tropical ocean led to lower regional rainfall, which coincided with severe droughts in the Yucatan Peninsula and the decline of the Classic Maya culture."

In addition, the researchers found that the cold climate anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic and Europe were accompanied by weaker ocean circulation and increased salinity in the Caribbean. "Advection, or the movement of tropical salt to high northern latitudes, is essential for maintaining high surface densities in the subpolar North Atlantic. This is a prerequisite for the overall stability of the large-scale ocean circulation, including the transfer of warm Gulf Stream water, which is responsible for our mild temperatures in Europe," says Dr Bauch.

The data on the historical past thus allow a reconstruction of the connection across the North Atlantic. Initial cooling can be caused by volcanic eruptions, low solar activity and feedbacks between sea ice and the ocean in the north. The new study provides evidence that a decrease in salt movement to high northern latitudes will amplify and prolong these climate events. Conversely, the slow movement of positive salinity anomalies from the tropics will eventually increase the density at the surface of the subpolar North Atlantic. This may favour the northward transport of heat by ocean currents, resulting in milder temperatures over Europe and North America.

"Such a salinity feedback is known from models and has been assumed for the Little Ice Age. However, in the absence of tropical ocean data, these assumptions have been based on less direct precipitation records," says Dr Zhuravleva.

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The unexpected contribution of medieval monks to volcanology

By observing the night sky, medieval monks unwittingly recorded some of history's largest volcanic eruptions. An international team of researchers, led by the University of Geneva (UNIGE), drew on readings of 12th and 13th century European and Middle Eastern chronicles, along with ice core and tree ring data, to accurately date some of the biggest volcanic eruptions the world has ever seen. Their results, reported in the journal Nature, uncover new information about one of the most volcanically active periods in Earth's history, which some think helped to trigger the Little Ice Age, a long interval of cooling that saw the advance of European glaciers.

It took the researchers almost five years to examine hundreds of annals and chronicles from across Europe and the Middle East, in search of references to total lunar eclipses and their colouration. Total lunar eclipses occur when the moon passes into the Earth's shadow. Typically, the moon remains visible as a reddish orb because it is still bathed in sunlight bent round the Earth by its atmosphere. But after a very large volcanic eruption, there can be so much dust in the stratosphere -- the middle part of the atmosphere starting roughly where commercial aircraft fly -- that the eclipsed moon almost disappears.

Medieval chroniclers recorded and described all kinds of historical events, including the deeds of kings and popes, important battles, and natural disasters and famines. Just as noteworthy were the celestial phenomena that might foretell such calamities. Mindful of the Book of Revelation, a vision of the end times that speaks of a blood-red moon, the monks were especially careful to take note of the moon's coloration. Of the 64 total lunar eclipses that occurred in Europe between 1100 and 1300, the chroniclers had faithfully documented 51. In five of these cases, they also reported that the moon was exceptionally dark.

The contribution of Japanese scribes

Asked what made him connect the monks' records of the brightness and colour of the eclipsed moon with volcanic gloom, the lead author of the work, Sébastien Guillet, senior research associate at the Institute for environmental sciences at the UNIGE, said: "I was listening to Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon album when I realised that the darkest lunar eclipses all occurred within a year or so of major volcanic eruptions. Since we know the exact days of the eclipses, it opened the possibility of using the sightings to narrow down when the eruptions must have happened."

The researchers found that scribes in Japan took equal note of lunar eclipses. One of the best known, Fujiwara no Teika, wrote of an unprecedented dark eclipse observed on 2 December 1229: 'the old folk had never seen it like this time, with the location of the disk of the Moon not visible, just as if it had disappeared during the eclipse... It was truly something to fear.' The stratospheric dust from large volcanic eruptions was not only responsible for the vanishing moon. It also cooled summer temperatures by limiting the sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. This in turn could bring ruin to agricultural crops.

Cross-checking text and data

"We know from previous work that strong tropical eruptions can induce global cooling on the order of roughly 1°C over a few years," said Markus Stoffel, full professor at the Institute for environmental sciences at the UNIGE and last author of the study, a specialist in converting measurements of tree rings into climate data, who co-designed the study. "They can also lead to rainfall anomalies with droughts in one place and floods in another."

Despite these effects, people at the time could not have imagined that the poor harvests or the unusual lunar eclipses had anything to do with volcanoes -- the eruptions themselves were all but one undocumented. "We only knew about these eruptions because they left traces in the ice of Antarctica and Greenland," said co-author Clive Oppenheimer, professor at the Department of Geography at the University of Cambridge. "By putting together the information from ice cores and the descriptions from medieval texts we can now make better estimates of when and where some of the biggest eruptions of this period occurred."

Climate and society affected

To make the most of this integration, Sébastien Guillet worked with climate modellers to compute the most likely timing of the eruptions. "Knowing the season when the volcanoes erupted is essential, as it influences the spread of the volcanic dust and the cooling and other climate anomalies associated with these eruptions," he said.

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