Climate change likely to uproot more Amazon trees

Tropical forests are crucial for sucking up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But they're also subject to intense storms that can cause "windthrow" -- the uprooting or breaking of trees. These downed trees decompose, potentially turning a forest from a carbon sink into a carbon source.

A new study finds that more extreme thunderstorms from climate change will likely cause a greater number of large windthrow events in the Amazon rainforest. This is one of the few ways that researchers have developed a link between storm conditions in the atmosphere and forest mortality on land, helping fill a major gap in models.

"Building this link between atmospheric dynamics and damage at the surface is very important across the board," said Jeff Chambers, a senior faculty scientist at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), and director of the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE)-Tropics project, which performed the research. "It's not just for the tropics. It's high-latitude, low-latitude, temperate-latitude, here in the U.S."

Researchers found that the Amazon will likely experience 43% more large blowdown events (of 25,000 square meters or more) by the end of the century. The area of the Amazon likely to see extreme storms that trigger large windthrows will also increase by about 50%. The study was published in the journal Nature Communications on Jan. 6.

"We want to know what these extreme storms and windthrows mean in terms of the carbon budget and carbon dynamics, and for carbon sinks in the forests," Chambers said. While downed trees slowly release carbon as they decompose, the open forest becomes host to new plants that pull carbon dioxide from the air. "It's a complicated system, and there are still a lot of pieces of the puzzle that we're working on. In order to answer the question more quantitatively, we need to build out the land-atmosphere links in Earth system models."

To find the link between air and land, researchers compared a map of more than 1,000 large windthrows with atmospheric data. They found that a measurement known as CAPE, the "convective available potential energy," was a good predictor of major blowdowns. CAPE measures the amount of energy available to move parcels of air vertically, and a high value of CAPE often leads to thunderstorms. More extreme storms can come with intense vertical winds, heavy rains or hail, and lightning, which interact with trees from the canopy down to the soil.

"Storms account for over half of the forest mortality in the Amazon," said Yanlei Feng, first author on the paper. "Climate change has a lot of impact on Amazon forests, but so far, a large fraction of the research focus has been on drought and fire. We hope our research brings more attention to extreme storms and improves our models to work under a changing environment from climate change."

While this study looked at a future with high carbon emissions (a scenario known as SSP-585), scientists could use projected CAPE data to explore windthrow impacts in different emissions scenarios. Researchers are now working to integrate the new forest-storm relationship into Earth system models. Better models will help scientists explore how forests will respond to a warmer future -- and whether they can continue to siphon carbon out of the atmosphere or will instead become a contributor.

"This was a very impactful climate change study for me," said Feng, who completed the research as a graduate student researcher in the NGEE-Tropics project at Berkeley Lab. She now studies carbon capture and storage at the Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford University. "I'm worried about the projected increase in forest disturbances in our study and I hope I can help limit climate change. So now I'm working on climate change solutions."

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Rwandan tree carbon stock mapped from above

As the first country, Rwanda can now present a national inventory based on a mapping of the carbon stock of each individual tree. Researchers at University of Copenhagen have developed a method to achieve this task in collaboration with Rwandan authorities and researchers.

"Large uncertainties exist for the current forest assessments internationally. By mapping the carbon stock of all individual trees, accuracy is greatly improved. Further, the way different countries make their inventories is not consistent due to different contexts, goals, and available datasets. We hope that this method will establish itself as a standard, thereby enabling better comparisons between countries," says PhD Researcher Maurice Mugabowindekwe, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resources Management (IGN), University of Copenhagen. He is first author on the scientific article presenting the new method. The article has been accepted for publication by Nature Climate Change, one of the most prominent journals for the field.

Maurice Mugabowindekwe being Rwandan himself is helpful during the work, but the choice of Rwanda for development of the method was scientifically based, he emphasizes:

"The country has a rich landscape variation including savannas, woodlands, sub-humid and humid forests, shrubland, agro-ecosystem mosaics, and urban tree ecosystems which are representative of most tropical countries. We wanted to prove the method for all these landscape types. Moreover, Rwanda is a signatory to several international agreements on forest preservation and climate change mitigation. For instance, Rwanda has pledged to restore about 80 % of its surface area by 2030 under the Bonn Challenge. So, it is highly relevant to have a reliable method for monitoring tree carbon."

First method for mapping individual trees

Preservation of natural forests and planting of new trees are recognized as vital routes to limiting climate change. However, large uncertainties regarding the carbon content of the trees have made it hard to assess the efficiency of concrete initiatives. The University of Copenhagen researchers have overcome this problem.

The new method benefits from databases which give the relationship between the extent of the crown and the total carbon content of an individual tree.

"Mapping individual trees and calculating their carbon stocks has traditionally been done in forestry, albeit at a much smaller scale. Basically, what we do equals scaling up these approaches from a very local to a national level," says Researcher Ankit Kariryaa, working 50:50 at IGN and at the Department of Computer Sciences (DIKU). Scientists from these two University of Copenhagen departments have developed the method with IGN as lead, in collaboration with other international scientists.

The new method will support Rwanda in verifying fulfilment of commitments under schemes such as the global forestry climate change mitigation scheme REDD+ or the African Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative, AFR 100.

Many trees are found outside forests

Manually mapping the trees of an entire country would be a huge endeavor and excessively costly. Thus, the new method constitutes a breakthrough since no other method would realistically be able to provide the same information at the level of individual trees.

"It is important to take a holistic approach and also include trees which are outside forests," says Ankit Kariryaa, noting that 72 % of the mapped trees were in farmlands and savannas, and 17 % in plantations.

At the same time, the relatively small proportion of trees which are found in natural forests -- 11 % of the total tree count -- comprise about 51 % of the national carbon stock of Rwanda. This is possible mainly because natural forests have a very high carbon content per tree volume, thanks to the very low human disturbance secured through national legislation.

"This suggests that conservation, regeneration, and sustainable management of natural forests is more effective at mitigating climate change than plantation," Maurice Mugabowindekwe comments.

Rainforest appears to be "a huge green blanket"

It is paramount that the computer can distinguish the individual trees. This is because the relationship between the extent of the crown and the total carbon content of a tree is very different depending on the size of a tree. One very large tree will have a much higher carbon content than a group of trees with the same joint crown extent. So, if the group was mistaken for one tree, the carbon content would be significantly overestimated. A deep neural network is used for detecting the individual trees.

"Especially for the rainforest, it is highly challenging to determine how many different trees are present in an image. At first glance, the forest just appears to be one huge green blanket. But by using methods from Machine Learning and Computer Vision, our system can also be applied to identify the individual trees in overstory of dense forests," explains Christian Igel, Professor of Machine Learning at DIKU.

Training the computer on verified samples is at the core of Machine Learning. In the Rwandan study, the computer was trained on a set of some 97,500 manually delineated tree crowns representing the full range of biogeographical conditions across the country.

The study used publicly available aerial and satellite images of Rwanda at 0.25 x 0.25 m resolution. These images were collected in June-August 2008 and 2009 and were provided by the Rwanda Land Management and Use Authority and the University of Rwanda. More than 350 million trees were mapped.

Applications beyond Rwanda

Nine researchers from University of Copenhagen visited Rwanda in July 2022 with a dual purpose of field work and presenting results from the first nation-wide mapping to the Rwandan authorities and other stakeholders in the country's forestry sector.

"The presentation was well received," reports Maurice Mugabowindekwe. He was immediately tasked by the Rwandan authorities with an updated mapping based on newer aerial images acquired in 2019. This work is now ongoing.

Further, the method has already been tested for a handful of countries besides Rwanda. These include Tanzania, Burundi, Uganda, and Kenya.

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Amazon deforestation threatens newly discovered fish species in Brazil

Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History researcher Murilo Pastana and his colleagues have discovered and described two new species of Amazonian fish -- one with striking red-orange fins and the other so small it is technically considered a miniature fish species -- in a paper published today, May 16, in the Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society.

Both species inhabit waters located at the bleeding edge of human encroachment into the Amazon rainforest roughly 25 miles north of the Brazilian city of Apuí. Pastana and his co-authors, Willian Ohara with the Federal University of Rondônia and Priscila Camelier with the Federal University of Bahia, said that ongoing deforestation in the region places these roughly inch-long fish, part of a group known colloquially as the South American darters, in imminent danger of extinction. In particular, the more colorful of the two species, Poecilocharax callipterus, is at risk because its known range is limited to a single stream comprising roughly 1.5 square miles of habitat.

"It was exciting to find new species," Pastana said. "But in the field, we saw the forest on fire, logging trucks carrying out huge trees, and cleared patches turned into cattle pasture. This made us feel a lot of urgency to document these species and publish this paper as quickly as possible."

As a Brazilian-born scientist, Pastana is passionate about preserving the country's biological heritage, and his hope is that naming and describing these species might motivate the Brazilian government to protect and conserve these newly discovered, endangered fishes.

The small subfamily to which these previously unknown fish species belong is also highly desirable in the aquarium hobbyist market. Pastana, whose work is supported by the Smithsonian's Sara E. and Bruce B. Collette Postdoctoral Fellowship in Systematic Ichthyology, said that the exotic aquarium fish trade could pose yet another threat to these two new species even as scientists are first formally identifying them and learning of their existence.

The expeditions that uncovered these new freshwater species took place between 2015 and 2016. Pastana said the broad goal of these forays into the Brazilian Amazon was to search out the still unknown biological treasures of the many waterways in the Madeira River Basin, the richest river basin in the world in terms of fish biodiversity according to a 2019 estimate.

"We went to sample places that have never been visited by scientists," Pastana said. "This area is really important because this is one of the frontiers where deforestation is moving north -- the border between new cities and native forest."

The Apuí region where these scientific surveys took place sits at number two on a recent list of Brazilian municipalities with the highest deforestation rates. Ironically, the same roads that facilitate the region's accelerating loss of habitat also facilitated access to formerly unreachable streams, ponds and tributaries for Pastana and his colleagues.

So, in 2015 and 2016 Pastana and others camped along a road called AM-174 and collected fish using nets, traps and other methods. All the specimens were photographed, cataloged and preserved for further study back at the Museum of Zoology, University of São Paulo.

One of these specimens has vivid red-orange fins and a distinctive dark spot just in front of its tail. This fish stood out immediately as a new species, Pastana said. The fish, which has now been named P. callipterus, inhabits the margins of what scientists call a black water stream, so named because its waters are stained the color of coffee by tannins leached from fallen leaves. Males of the species have even more intense coloration and sport dorsal fins that can exceed half their body length, which averages just over an inch. Despite targeted efforts to seek out this species in the surrounding area on the 2016 return trip, Pastana and his colleagues were only able to find P. callipterus in the stream in which it was first discovered.

Researchers encountered the second new species documented on these field expeditions among tangles of tree roots protruding from the banks of muddy watered streams -- distinct from the relatively translucent, if darkly stained, black water streams. Given the scientific name P. rhizophilus for its love (phil) of roots (rhiz), this species is an amber yellow with males possessing dark streaks in their dorsal and anal fins. But perhaps the most distinctive quality of this new species is that it is so small that scientists consider it to be miniature, a designation given to any fish that is less than about an inch long when mature, Pastana said. He added that lab study revealed that in these three-quarter-inch-long fish, parts of the skeleton that are typically bone are instead made of cartilage.

Genetic investigations confirmed the evolutionary relationship of these two new closely related species and their relatives, bringing the total number of species in their small sub-family (Crenuchinae) to five. This is the first addition of a new species to the group in 57 years.

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Beetle in the coconut: Fossil find sheds new light on Neotropical rainforests

Tiny beetles that feed on fruit from the palm family may have developed their taste for coconuts long ago, according to a Penn State-led team of scientists studying suspected insect damage in a 60-million-year-old fossil.

"We found this remarkable fossil coconut that has clear signs of insect tunneling," said L. Alejandro Giraldo, a graduate student in geosciences at Penn State. "After studying the damage in detail, we were able to pinpoint the insect culprit: a group of beetles commonly referred to as palm bruchines that today still eat lots of palm fruit -- coconuts included."

The findings represent the earliest fossil evidence of seed beetles feeding on palm fruit and shed new light on the Neotropical rainforests that emerged in modern day South America following the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event 66 million years ago that wiped out the dinosaurs and reshaped life on Earth, the scientists said.

"These were the first Neotropical forests as we know them today," said Giraldo, whose adviser is Peter Wilf, professor of geosciences at Penn State. "We know these forests had similar plants compared to today, and the next step is knowing what was happening to these forests -- for example how insects were interacting with the plants."

Previous studies have focused on insect damage to fossil leaves, the most abundant plant parts found in the fossil record, the scientists said. Examples of insect damage to fruit and seeds are less common, but scientists found six suspected insect holes on a coconut fossil from a site in modern day Colombia.

The fossil contained damage to the outer and inner layers of the fruit, revealing a three-dimensional path that suggests the holes had a biological origin -- like from larvae eating their way through the coconut, the scientists said.

The team analyzed the number, position and size of the holes and the scar tissue left behind and compared that with damaged caused by modern insects, especially those that feed on plants from the palm family. The damage was consistent with a sub-group of modern beetles called palm bruchines, the scientists reported in the journal Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology.

"There are thousands of different insect species that can feed on seeds, but not many of them feed on palm seeds, so that was the way to start," Giraldo said. "After that it was doing a lot of detective work, really digging into the literature and studying different morphological features in terms of how this damage occurs. And it paid off."

This kind of relationship between specific plants and insects -- called specialized interactions -- plays an important role in creating and maintaining plant diversity in modern Neotropical rainforests. By eating and destroying seeds, these highly specialized insects help prevent any one group of plants from dominating the landscape.

The findings suggest that palm bruchines have consistently eaten palm fruits for at least 60 million years and that the specialized interactions that define modern-day Neotropical rainforests have occurred through geological time, the scientists said.

"This is something that we see 60 million years ago, and it's something that is still occurring today," Giraldo said. "Our contribution is that we pinpoint this specific group of insects as the culprit, and that group is still living today and attacks the same coconuts and same palms as it did in the past."

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Amazon rainforest is losing resilience: New evidence from satellite data analysis

The Amazon rainforest is likely losing resilience, data analysis from high-resolution satellite images suggests. This is due to stress from a combination of logging and burning -- the influence of human-caused climate change is not clearly determinable so far, but will likely matter greatly in the future. For about three quarters of the forest, the ability to recover from perturbation has been decreasing since the early 2000s, which the scientists see as a warning sign. The new evidence is derived from advanced statistical analysis of satellite data of changes in vegetation biomass and productivity.

"Reduced resilience -- the ability to recover from perturbations like droughts or fires -- can mean an increased risk of dieback of the Amazon rainforest. That we see such a resilience loss in observations is worrying," says Niklas Boers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Technical University of Munich, who conducted the study jointly with researchers from the University of Exeter, UK.

"The Amazon rainforest is a home to a unique host of biodiversity, strongly influences rainfall all over South America by way of its enormous evapotranspiration, and stores huge amounts of carbon that could be released as greenhouse gases in the case of even partial dieback, in turn contributing to further global warming," Boers explains. "This is why the rainforest is of global relevance."

"When the tipping itself will be observable, it would be too late"

The Amazon is considered a potential tipping element in the Earth system and a number of studies revealed its vulnerability. "However, computer simulation studies of its future yield quite a range of results," says Boers. "We've therefore been looking into specific observational data for signs of resilience changes during the last decades. We see continuously decreasing rainforest resilience since the early 2000s, but we cannot tell when a potential transition from rainforest to savanna might happen. When it will be observable, it would likely be too late to stop it." The research is part of the project 'Tipping Points in the Earth System' (TiPES) funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 programme.

The team from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Global Systems Institute of the University of Exeter used stability indicators that had previously already been applied to the Greenland ice sheet and the Atlantic overturning circulation. These statistical indicators aim at predicting the approach of a system towards an abrupt change by identifying a critical slowing down of the system's dynamics, for instance its reaction to weather variability. The analysis of two satellite data sets, representing biomass and the greenness of the forest, revealed the critical slowing down. This critical slowing down can be seen as a weakening of the restoring forces that usually bring the system back to its equilibrium after perturbations.

"A system might seem stable if one is considering only its mean state"

While a system might seem stable if one is considering only its mean state, taking a closer look at the data with innovative statistical methods can reveal resilience loss," says Chris Boulton from the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute. "Previous studies based on computer simulations indicated that large parts of the Amazon can be committed to dieback before showing a strong change in the mean state. Our observational analysis now shows that in many areas destabilization indeed seems to be underway already."

To try and determine causes for the loss of resilience that the scientists find in the data, they explored the relation to rainfall in a given area in the Amazon, culminating in three 'once in a century' drought events in the region. Drier areas turn out to be more at risk than wetter ones. "This is alarming, as the IPCC models project an overall drying of the Amazon region in response to anthropogenic global warming," says Boers. Another factor is the distance of an area to roads and settlements from where people can access the forest. The data confirms that areas close to human land-use are more threatened.

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Amazon Rainforest birds’ bodies transform due to climate change

The most pristine parts of the Amazon rainforest devoid of direct human contact are being impacted by human-induced climate change, according to new research by LSU scientists. New analyses of data collected over the past four decades show that not only has the number of sensitive resident birds throughout the Amazon rainforest declined, but the body size and wing length have changed for most studied species. These physical changes in the birds track increasingly hot and dry conditions in the dry season, from June to November.

"Even in the middle of this pristine Amazon rainforest, we are seeing the global effects of climate change caused by people, including us," said Vitek Jirinec, LSU alumnus (Ph.D. '21), associate ecologist at the Integral Ecology Research Center and lead author to this study published in the journal Science Advances.

Birds in the Amazon rainforest have become smaller and their wings have become longer over several generations, indicating a response to the shifting environmental conditions that may include new physiological or nutritional challenges.

This is the first study to discover these changes in non-migratory birds' body size and shape, which eliminates other factors that may have influenced these physiological changes. Jirinec and colleagues studied data collected on more than 15,000 individual birds that were captured, measured, weighed, marked with a leg band and released, over 40 years of field work in the world's largest rainforest. The data reveal that nearly all of the birds' bodies have reduced in mass, or become lighter, since the 1980s. Most of the bird species lost on average about 2 percent of their body weight every decade. For an average bird species that weighed about 30 grams in the 1980s, the population now averages about 27.6 grams. How significant is this?

"These birds don't vary that much in size. They are fairly fine-tuned, so when everyone in the population is a couple of grams smaller, it's significant," said co-author Philip Stouffer, who is the Lee F. Mason Professor in the LSU School of Renewable Natural Resources.

The data set covers a large range of the rainforest so the changes in the birds' bodies and wings across communities are not tied to one specific site, which means that the phenomenon is pervasive.

"This is undoubtedly happening all over and probably not just with birds," Stouffer said. "If you look out your window, and consider what you're seeing out there, the conditions are not what they were 40 years ago and it's very likely plants and animals are responding to those changes as well. We have this idea that the things we see are fixed in time, but if these birds aren't fixed in time, that may not be true."

The scientists investigated 77 species of rainforest birds that live from the cool, dark forest floor to the warmer, sunlit midstory. They discovered that the birds that reside in the highest section of the midstory and are the most exposed to heat and drier conditions, had the most dramatic change in body weight and wing size. These birds also tend to fly more than the birds that live on the forest floor. The idea is that these birds have adapted to a hotter, drier climate by reducing their wing loading therefore becoming more energy efficient in flight. Think of a fighter jet with a heavy body and short wings that requires a lot of energy to fly fast compared to a glider plane with a slim body and long wings that can soar with less energy. If a bird has a higher wing loading, it needs to flap its wings faster to stay aloft, which requires more energy and produces more metabolic heat. Reducing body weight and increasing wing length leads to more efficient resource use while also keeping cooler in a warming climate.

LSU alumnus Ryan Burner (Ph.D. '19) conducted much of the analysis that revealed the variation among the groups of birds over the years. Burner, who is now a research wildlife biologist at the U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, is the second author of this study.

The question of the future capacity of Amazonian birds to deal with increasingly hotter and drier surroundings, especially in the dry season, remains unanswered. The same question can be asked for a lot of places and species that live at the edges of even more environmental extremes.

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Early modern human from Southeast Asia adapted to a rainforest environment

Traditional assumptions have often seen tropical rainforests as a barrier to early Homo sapiens. However, growing proof shows that humans adapted to and lived in tropical rainforest habitats of Southeast Asia. Some researchers also suggest that, in the past, other human species, like Homo erectus and Homo floresiensis, became extinct because they could not adapt to this environment as our species did. However, we know very little about the ecological adaptation of fossil humans, including what they were eating.

Zinc isotopes reveal what kind of food was primarily eaten

In this study, researchers analysed the zinc stable isotope ratios from animal and human teeth from two sites in the Huà Pan Province of Laos: Tam Pà Ling and the nearby site of Nam Lot. "The site of Tam Pà Ling is particularly important for palaeoanthropology and archaeology of Southeast Asia because it holds the oldest and most abundant fossil record of our species in this region," explains Fabrice Demeter, researcher at the University of Copenhagen. However, there is little archaeological evidence, like stone tools, hearth features, plant remains, cut marks on bones, in Tam Pà Ling: only teeth and bones. This makes isotopic approaches the only way to gain insight into past dietary reliance.

Nitrogen isotope analysis, in particular, can help scientists learn if past humans were eating animals or plants. However, the collagen in bones and teeth needed to do these analyses is not easily conservable. In tropical regions like the one at Tam Pà Ling this problem is even more acute. "New methods -- such as zinc isotope analysis of enamel -- can now overcome these limitations and allow us to investigate teeth from regions and periods we could not study before," says study leader Thomas Tütken, professor at the Johannes Gutenberg University's Institute of Geosciences. "With zinc stable isotope ratios, we can now study Tam Pà Ling and learn what kind of food our earliest ancestors in this region were eating."

First study that reveals the whole diet of fossil humans from Southeast Asia

The fossil human studied in this research dates from the Late Pleistocene, more precisely from 46,000 to 63,000 years ago. With it, various mammals from both sites, including water buffaloes, rhinos, wild boars, deer, bears, orangutans, macaques, and leopards, were also analysed. All these different animals show various eating behaviours, making for an ideal background to determine what exactly humans were eating at the time. The more diverse the animal remains found at a particular site are, the more information the researchers can use to understand the diet of prehistoric humans.

When we compare the zinc isotope values from the fossil Homo sapiens of Tam Pà Ling to that of the animals, it strongly suggests that its diet contained both plants and animals. This omnivorous diet also differs from most nitrogen isotope data of humans in other regions of the world for that time period, where a meat-rich diet is almost consistently discerned. "Another kind of analysis performed in this study -- stable carbon isotopes analysis -- indicates that the food consumed came strictly from forested environments," says Élise Dufour, researcher at the National Natural History Museum of Paris. "The results are the oldest direct evidence for subsistence strategies for Late Pleistocene humans in tropical rainforests."

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Rainforest model offers glimpse into future of the Amazon

 Tropical forests may be more resilient to predicted temperature increases under global climate change than previously thought, a study published in the journal Nature Plants suggests. The results could help make climate prediction models more accurate, according to the authors -- an international team led by scientists in the University of Arizona Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology.

The group studied data from the rainforest habitat at UArizona's Biosphere 2 and compared them to measurements taken at natural tropical forest sites. Due to being encased under a glass dome, the tropical forest at Biosphere 2 is possibly the hottest tropical forest in the world, with temperatures reaching up to 40 degrees Celsius, about 6 C higher than maximum temperatures currently experienced by natural tropical forests and in the range of what scientists expect them to experience in the year 2100, absent major climate change mitigation.

At Biosphere 2, when the effects of warming and drying were separated, the authors observed that, just as in natural forests, photosynthesis declined as the air dried, but when the air was wet, the trees continued to photosynthesize steadily at ever higher temperatures, right up to a forest-roasting 38 C.

"No previous studies of tropical forests looked at changes in temperature much beyond to what they experience today," said Scott Saleska, a professor in the UArizona Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and senior author of the paper. "Biosphere 2 gave us a unique opportunity to look at what might happen when these forests get the full global warming treatment."

The paper's lead author, Marielle Smith -- a postdoctoral research associate at Michigan State University who pursued the research while she was a doctoral student in Saleska's lab at UArizona -- noted that "previous studies suggest that tropical forests are already approaching the limit of what they can tolerate in terms of temperature, provoking concern about the impacts of future warming."

"But when we looked at the rainforest in Biosphere 2, we saw that, under some conditions, the trees there were functioning well beyond temperatures currently deemed to be the limit, and even higher than those predicted for the Amazon basin by 2100," she said.

Smith and her co-authors wanted to know why. Biologists have long known that plants' ability to actively conduct photosynthesis, or turn carbon dioxide and water into biomolecules using sunlight, declines above a certain temperature threshold. However, the reason for this limit is not always clear.

That is because as temperature increases, the relative humidity goes down, and photosynthesis can decline due to the temperature increase, the decline in water content or both. Similar to an assembly line in a factory, where productivity could be affected by a shortage of supplies entering the production process or by an excessively hot working environment directly impacting the physical performance of workers, the productivity of forests could be limited by a shortage of raw materials -- in this case, atmospheric water vapor, or humidity -- or by high temperatures wreaking havoc with the biochemical machinery itself.

Understanding the reason for photosynthetic decline at higher temperatures is important because while the latter mechanism -- direct susceptibility to temperature -- would imply that tropical forests are highly vulnerable to future warming trends, the former would indicate some degree of resilience, especially under future elevated levels of carbon dioxide.

The problem is that in the natural world, higher temperatures and lower water content almost always go hand-in-hand, so their effects cannot easily be separated. In Biosphere 2, however, the climate can be adjusted in ways not possible in the natural world.

"The enclosed environment at Biosphere 2 allowed us to maintain high humidity despite high temperatures by adding water vapor via misters and trapping humidity inside the glass enclosure, which is something that would not happen in a natural tropical forest," Smith explained.

This finding can be understood in terms of basic plant behavior: When there is less moisture in the air, plants react by limiting the opening of their stomata -- microscopically small openings in their leaves -- to take in carbon dioxide, one of the raw materials for synthesis. The longer the stomata remain open, the more carbon dioxide can enter the leaf, but that comes at a price: The drier the air surrounding the plant, the more water escapes through the openings, forcing the plant to strike a balance between carbon uptake and water loss.

The reduction in photosynthetic productivity that previous studies had observed in the face of warmer temperatures, therefore, is likely due to plants limiting the time they keep their stomata open when confronted with drier air, in an effort to preserve water. This, in turn, limits how much carbon dioxide can enter the leaf, which may be behind the drop in photosynthetic productivity rather than the alternative scenario, in which heat damages the photosynthetic apparatus directly.

To assess the sensitivity of tropical forests to future warming, the authors compared the response of photosynthesis to high temperatures in the Biosphere 2 tropical forest to that of natural tropical forest sites in Mexico and in the Brazilian Amazon. So-called eddy flux towers reaching up to nearly 200 feet high, taller than the forest canopy, allow researchers to measure the exchange of carbon dioxide between the forests and the atmosphere.

"Flux towers allow us to measure the exchange of carbon dioxide between the forests and the atmosphere that we used to calculate total forest photosynthesis," Smith said. "When we looked very closely at the flux tower data, we could tell that it was the same mechanism that was causing declines in real-world photosynthesis during warm periods as in Biosphere 2; it was the decline in water vapor, not the increase in temperature."

"We interpret these findings such that in the presence of high humidity, the stomata in the leaves can remain open longer without losing as much water," said Tyeen Taylor, a co-author of the paper and postdoctoral research associate at the University of Michigan.

The authors discuss how heightened carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has the potential to have the same effect, because when more carbon dioxide is available, plants can keep their stomata opening times shorter, too, thereby limiting their water loss.

The authors point out that while their findings suggest that tropical forests may be more resilient to future warming than previously thought, that does not mean that tropical forests are not vulnerable to future climate change, as photosynthesis is not the only aspect of forest health.

"For example, reproduction could be affected independently, growth could be affected independently, herbivore and pathogen susceptibility could increase," Smith said. "There are many other reasons not to say, 'tropical forests are out of the woods.'"

The authors pointed out that Amazon forests are facing great threats from fires, deforestation and habitat destruction, and while the study may point to some resilience to coping with a warming world, "that hardly means these forests are safe, any more than slowing down as you run a red light is safe," Saleska said.

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Long-living tropical trees play outsized role in carbon storage

A group of trees that grow fast, live long lives and reproduce slowly account for the bulk of the biomass -- and carbon storage -- in some tropical rainforests, a team of scientists says in a paper published this week in the journal Science. The finding that these trees, called long-lived pioneers, play a much larger role in carbon storage than previously thought may have implications in efforts to preserve forests as a strategy to fight climate change.

"People have been arguing about whether these long-lived pioneers contribute much to carbon storage over the long term," said Caroline Farrior, an assistant professor of integrative biology at The University of Texas at Austin and a primary investigator on the study. "We were surprised to find that they do."

It is unclear the extent to which tropical rainforests can help soak up excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere produced by burning fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the new study provides insights about the role of different species of trees in carbon storage.

Using more than 30 years' worth of data collected from a tropical rainforest in Panama, the team has uncovered some key traits of trees that, when integrated into computer models related to climate change, will improve the models' accuracy. With the team's improved model, the scientists plan to begin answering questions about what drives forest composition over time and what factors affect carbon storage.

Most existing Earth system models used to forecast global climate decades from now, including those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, represent the trees in a forest as all basically the same.

"This analysis shows that that is not good enough for tropical forests and provides a way forward," Farrior said. "We show that the variation in tropical forest species's growth, survival and reproduction is important for predicting forest carbon storage."

The project was led by Nadja Rüger, research fellow at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig.

In addition to the finding about long-lived pioneers, the team found the composition of a tropical forest over time depends on how each tree species balances two different sets of trade-offs: growth versus survival (for example, one type of tree might grow fast but die young) and stature versus reproduction (another might grow tall but reproduce leisurely). Plotting every species as a point on a graph based on where they fall along these two different axes allowed the scientists to have a more sophisticated and accurate model than prior ones, which usually focused exclusively on the first of these two trade-offs or parametrized the groups by different means.

"To really appreciate that there is this second trade-off between stature and reproduction, and that it's important in old-growth forests, is a big deal biologically," Farrior said.

The team also discovered that the nearly 300 unique tree species that live on Barro Colorado Island, which sits in the middle of the Panama Canal, can be represented in their computer model by just five functional groups and still produce accurate forecasts of tree composition and forest biomass over time.

It's not possible to directly verify the forecasts of a forest model in future decades. So the researchers did the next best thing: They seeded their model with forest composition data collected at their site in Panama during the 1980s and then ran the model forward to show that it accurately represents the changes that occurred from then until now. This is called "hindcasting."

Next, they plan to explore how a warming world might benefit trees with certain traits over others, shifting forest composition and the potential of forests to store carbon.

Read more at Science Daily

Traces of ancient rainforest in Antarctica point to a warmer prehistoric world

Antarctica

Researchers have found evidence of rainforests near the South Pole 90 million years ago, suggesting the climate was exceptionally warm at the time.

A team from the UK and Germany discovered forest soil from the Cretaceous period within 900 km of the South Pole. Their analysis of the preserved roots, pollen and spores shows that the world at that time was a lot warmer than previously thought.

The discovery and analysis were carried out by an international team of researchers led by geoscientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Germany and including Imperial College London researchers. Their findings are published today in Nature.

Co-author Professor Tina van de Flierdt, from the Department of Earth Science & Engineering at Imperial, said: "The preservation of this 90-million-year-old forest is exceptional, but even more surprising is the world it reveals. Even during months of darkness, swampy temperate rainforests were able to grow close to the South Pole, revealing an even warmer climate than we expected."

The work also suggests that the carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere were higher than expected during the mid-Cretaceous period, 115-80 million years ago, challenging climate models of the period.

The mid-Cretaceous was the heyday of the dinosaurs but was also the warmest period in the past 140 million years, with temperatures in the tropics as high as 35 degrees Celsius and sea level 170 metres higher than today.

However, little was known about the environment south of the Antarctic Circle at this time. Now, researchers have discovered evidence of a temperate rainforest in the region, such as would be found in New Zealand today. This was despite a four-month polar night, meaning for a third of every year there was no life-giving sunlight at all.

The presence of the forest suggests average temperatures were around 12 degrees Celsius and that there was unlikely to be an ice cap at the South Pole at the time.

The evidence for the Antarctic forest comes from a core of sediment drilled into the seabed near the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica. One section of the core, that would have originally been deposited on land, caught the researchers' attention with its strange colour.

The team CT-scanned the section of the core and discovered a dense network of fossil roots, which was so well preserved that they could make out individual cell structures. The sample also contained countless traces of pollen and spores from plants, including the first remnants of flowering plants ever found at these high Antarctic latitudes.

To reconstruct the environment of this preserved forest, the team assessed the climatic conditions under which the plants' modern descendants live, as well as analysing temperature and precipitation indicators within the sample.

They found that the annual mean air temperature was around 12 degrees Celsius; roughly two degrees warmer than the mean temperature in Germany today. Average summer temperatures were around 19 degrees Celsius; water temperatures in the rivers and swamps reached up to 20 degrees; and the amount and intensity of rainfall in West Antarctica were similar to those in today's Wales.

To get these conditions, the researchers conclude that 90 million years ago the Antarctic continent was covered with dense vegetation, there were no land-ice masses on the scale of an ice sheet in the South Pole region, and the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was far higher than previously assumed for the Cretaceous.

Read more at Science Daily

Nine climate tipping points now 'active,' warn scientists

More than half of the climate tipping points identified a decade ago are now "active," a group of leading scientists have warned.

This threatens the loss of the Amazon rainforest and the great ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, which are currently undergoing measurable and unprecedented changes much earlier than expected.

This "cascade" of changes sparked by global warming could threaten the existence of human civilisations.

Evidence is mounting that these events are more likely and more interconnected than was previously thought, leading to a possible domino effect.

In an article in the journal Nature, the scientists call for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent key tipping points, warning of a worst-case scenario of a "hothouse," less habitable planet.

"A decade ago we identified a suite of potential tipping points in the Earth system, now we see evidence that over half of them have been activated," said lead author Professor Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.

"The growing threat of rapid, irreversible changes means it is no longer responsible to wait and see. The situation is urgent and we need an emergency response."

Co-author Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said: "It is not only human pressures on Earth that continue rising to unprecedented levels.

"It is also that as science advances, we must admit that we have underestimated the risks of unleashing irreversible changes, where the planet self-amplifies global warming.

"This is what we now start seeing, already at 1°C global warming.

"Scientifically, this provides strong evidence for declaring a state of planetary emergency, to unleash world action that accelerates the path towards a world that can continue evolving on a stable planet."

In the commentary, the authors propose a formal way to calculate a planetary emergency as risk multiplied by urgency.

Tipping point risks are now much higher than earlier estimates, while urgency relates to how fast it takes to act to reduce risk.

Exiting the fossil fuel economy is unlikely before 2050, but with temperature already at 1.1°C above pre-industrial temperature, it is likely Earth will cross the 1.5°C guardrail by 2040. The authors conclude this alone defines an emergency.

Nine active tipping points:

1. Arctic sea ice
2. Greenland ice sheet
3. Boreal forests
4. Permafrost
5. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
6. Amazon rainforest
7. Warm-water corals
8. West Antarctic Ice Sheet
9. Parts of East Antarctica

The collapse of major ice sheets on Greenland, West Antarctica and part of East Antarctica would commit the world to around 10 metres of irreversible sea-level rise.

Reducing emissions could slow this process, allowing more time for low-lying populations to move.

The rainforests, permafrost and boreal forests are examples of biosphere tipping points that if crossed result in the release of additional greenhouse gases amplifying warming.

Despite most countries having signed the Paris Agreement, pledging to keep global warming well below 2°C, current national emissions pledges -- even if they are met -- would lead to 3°C of warming.

Although future tipping points and the interplay between them is difficult to predict, the scientists argue: "If damaging tipping cascades can occur and a global tipping cannot be ruled out, then this is an existential threat to civilization.

"No amount of economic cost-benefit analysis is going to help us. We need to change our approach to the climate problem."

Professor Lenton added: "We might already have crossed the threshold for a cascade of inter-related tipping points.

"However, the rate at which they progress, and therefore the risk they pose, can be reduced by cutting our emissions."

Read more at Science Daily