Life from a drop of rain: New research suggests rainwater helped form the first protocell walls

One of the major unanswered questions about the origin of life is how droplets of RNA floating around the primordial soup turned into the membrane-protected packets of life we call cells.

A new paper by engineers from the University of Chicago's Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering (UChicago PME), the University of Houston's Chemical Engineering Department, and biologists from the UChicago Chemistry Department, have proposed a solution.

In the paper, published today in Science Advances, UChicago PME postdoctoral researcher Aman Agrawal and his co-authors -- including UChicago PME Dean Emeritus Matthew Tirrell and Nobel Prize-winning biologist Jack Szostak -- show how rainwater could have helped create a meshy wall around protocells 3.8 billion years ago, a critical step in the transition from tiny beads of RNA to every bacterium, plant, animal, and human that ever lived.

"This is a distinctive and novel observation," Tirrell said.

The research looks at "coacervate droplets" -- naturally occurring compartments of complex molecules like proteins, lipids, and RNA. The droplets, which behave like drops of cooking oil in water, have long been eyed as a candidate for the first protocells. But there was a problem. It wasn't that these droplets couldn't exchange molecules between each other, a key step in evolution, the problem was that they did it too well, and too fast.

Any droplet containing a new, potentially useful pre-life mutation of RNA would exchange this RNA with the other RNA droplets within minutes, meaning they would quickly all be the same. There would be no differentiation and no competition -- meaning no evolution.

And that means no life.

"If molecules continually exchange between droplets or between cells, then all the cells after a short while will look alike, and there will be no evolution because you are ending up with identical clones," Agrawal said.

Engineering a solution

Life is by nature interdisciplinary, so Szostak, the director of UChicago's Chicago Center for the Origins of Life, said it was natural to collaborate with both UChicago PME, UChicago's interdisciplinary school of molecular engineering, and the chemical engineering department at the University of Houston.

"Engineers have been studying the physical chemistry of these types of complexes -- and polymer chemistry more generally -- for a long time. It makes sense that there's expertise in the engineering school," Szostak said. "When we're looking at something like the origin of life, it's so complicated and there are so many parts that we need people to get involved who have any kind of relevant experience."

In the early 2000s, Szostak started looking at RNA as the first biological material to develop. It solved a problem that had long stymied researchers looking at DNA or proteins as the earliest molecules of life.

"It's like a chicken-egg problem. What came first?" Agrawal said. "DNA is the molecule which encodes information, but it cannot do any function. Proteins are the molecules which perform functions, but they don't encode any heritable information."

Researchers like Szostak theorized that RNA came first, "taking care of everything" in Agrawal's words, with proteins and DNA slowly evolving from it.

"RNA is a molecule which, like DNA, can encode information, but it also folds like proteins so that it can perform functions such as catalysis as well," Agrawal said.

RNA was a likely candidate for the first biological material. Coacervate droplets were likely candidates for the first protocells. Coacervate droplets containing early forms of RNA seemed a natural next step.

That is until Szostak poured cold water on this theory, publishing a paper in 2014 showing that RNA in coacervate droplets exchanged too rapidly.

"You can make all kinds of droplets of different types of coacervates, but they don't maintain their separate identity. They tend to exchange their RNA content too rapidly. That's been a long-standing problem," Szostak said. "What we showed in this new paper is that you can overcome at least part of that problem by transferring these coacervate droplets into distilled water -- for example, rainwater or freshwater of any type -- and they get a sort of tough skin around the droplets that restricts them from exchanging RNA content."

'A spontaneous combustion of ideas'

Agrawal started transferring coacervate droplets into distilled water during his PhD research at the University of Houston, studying their behavior under an electric field. At this point, the research had nothing to do with the origin of life, just studying the fascinating material from an engineering perspective.

"Engineers, particularly Chemical and Materials, have good knowledge of how to manipulate material properties such as interfacial tension, role of charged polymers, salt, pH control, etc.," said University of Houston Prof. Alamgir Karim, Agrawal's former thesis advisor and a senior co-author of the new paper. "These are all key aspects of the world popularly known as 'complex fluids' -- think shampoo and liquid soap."

Agrawal wanted to study other fundamental properties of coacervates during his PhD. It wasn't Karim's area of study, but Karim had worked decades earlier at the University of Minnesota under one of the world's top experts -- Tirrell, who later became founding dean of the UChicago Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering.

During a lunch with Agrawal and Karim, Tirrell brought up how the research into the effects of distilled water on coacervate droplets might relate to the origin of life on Earth. Tirrell asked where distilled water would have existed 3.8 billion years ago.

"I spontaneously said 'rainwater!' His eyes lit up and he was very excited at the suggestion," Karim said. "So, you can say it was a spontaneous combustion of ideas or ideation!"

Tirrell brought Agrawal's distilled water research to Szostak, who had recently joined the University of Chicago to lead what was then called the Origins of Life Initiative. He posed the same question he had asked Karim.

"I said to him, 'Where do you think distilled water could come from in a prebiotic world?'" Tirrell recalled. "And Jack said exactly what I hoped he would say, which was rain."

Working with RNA samples from Szostak, Agrawal found that transferring coacervate droplets into distilled water increased the time scale of RNA exchange -- from mere minutes to several days. This was long enough for mutation, competition, and evolution.

"If you have protocell populations that are unstable, they will exchange their genetic material with each other and become clones. There is no possibility of Darwinian evolution," Agrawal said. "But if they stabilize against exchange so that they store their genetic information well enough, at least for several days so that the mutations can happen in their genetic sequences, then a population can evolve."

Rain, checked

Initially, Agrawal experimented with deionized water, which is purified under lab conditions. "This prompted the reviewers of the journal who then asked what would happen if the prebiotic rainwater was very acidic," he said.

Commercial lab water is free from all contaminants, has no salt, and lives with a neutral pH perfectly balanced between base and acid. In short, it's about as far from real-world conditions as a material can get. They needed to work with a material more like actual rain.

What's more like rain than rain?

"We simply collected water from rain in Houston and tested the stability of our droplets in it, just to make sure what we are reporting is accurate," Agrawal said.

In tests with the actual rainwater and with lab water modified to mimic the acidity of rainwater, they found the same results. The meshy walls formed, creating the conditions that could have led to life.

The chemical composition of the rain falling over Houston in the 2020s is not the rain that would have fallen 750 million years after the Earth formed, and the same can be said for the model protocell system Agrawal tested. The new paper proves that this approach of building a meshy wall around protocells is possible and can work together to compartmentalize the molecules of life, putting researchers closer than ever to finding the right set of chemical and environmental conditions that allow protocells to evolve.

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Mountains vulnerable to extreme rain from climate change

As the world warms, extreme weather events grow -- and they also change. Researchers at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) found that climate change is shifting snowfall to rainfall on mountains across the Northern Hemisphere. Those surges of liquid water bring a distinct set of dangers, including floods, landslides, and soil erosion.

"One quarter of the global population lives in or downstream from mountainous regions," said Mohammed Ombadi, first author of the paper published today in Nature. "They are going to be directly affected by this risk."

Scientists already expect climate change to increase the volume of water falling during extreme events (which typically take place over a few hours to a day), but this study is the first time researchers have looked at whether that extreme precipitation comes as rain or snow. They found that the fraction of water falling as snow decreased in mountainous regions, falling instead as rain -- making mountains particularly susceptible to extreme rain hazards. They even put a number to it: For every 1 degree Celsius increase in the global temperature, researchers expect an average of 15% more rain at high elevations.

"This increase in rainfall extremes is not only something that is going to happen from now until the end of the 21st century -- we're already seeing it," Ombadi said. "That same rate was also evident in the data from 1950 to 2019. Rainfall extremes in mountains have already been increasing, and will continue to change with that 15% rate."

While all the mountain ranges in the Northern Hemisphere are seeing the shift from snow to rain, those at greatest risk of extreme rainfall events are the North American Pacific mountain ranges (the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and coastal ranges from Canada to Southern California), the Himalayas, and high-latitude regions. Researchers are still working to understand why those areas are at higher risk than other mountain ranges such as the Rockies or the Alps.

"We think that North American Pacific mountain ranges are more susceptible to the risk of rainfall extremes than other mountain ranges because a significant portion of snowfall in this region typically occurs at temperatures just below zero degrees Celsius," Ombadi said. "The slightest change in air temperature will shift this snowfall to rainfall. This is unlike other mountain ranges where snowfall may occur at very low temperatures below zero degrees."

Ombadi hopes that fellow climate scientists will incorporate the distinction between snowfall and rainfall to improve global climate models, and that civil engineers and planners will use the data to better prepare for intense rain events.

"We need to factor these results into how we design and build the infrastructure in these mountainous regions, so that they can withstand the negative consequences of increases in rainfall extremes," Ombadi said.

Meanwhile, countries continue efforts to meet targets established by the Paris Agreement that would limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

"Our findings revealed a linear relationship between the level of warming and the increase in extreme rainfall: For instance, 1 degree of warming causes 15% more rain, while 3 degrees leads to a 45% increase in rainfall," Ombadi said. "There are many technologies in progress that could help us reduce greenhouse gas emissions and how much the planet warms. To me, this study shows the need to invest in those clean solutions, and also start preparing for the consequences of warming now."

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New look at climate data shows substantially wetter rain and snow days ahead

A key source of information underpinning the upcoming National Climate Assessment suggests that heavy precipitation days historically experienced once in a century by Americans could in the future be experienced on several occasions in a lifetime.

Scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego and the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) report that extremely intense days of rain or snow will be more frequent by the end of this century than previously thought -- as often as once every 30 or 40 years in the Pacific Northwest and southeastern United States.

The conclusions come from analyzing a 30-terabyte data set that models temperature and precipitation at scales roughly the size of urban ZIP codes: six kilometers (3.9 miles). Researchers developed the data set, called Localized Constructed Analogs Version 2 (LOCA2), to provide climate information that is useful for local planners. In contrast, most of the existing advanced climate models look at regions that range from 50 to 250 kilometers (30 to 400 miles).

"With this data set, we're able to look at the impacts of actual weather pattern changes across the United States at an extremely granular level," said Dan Feldman, staff scientist at Berkeley Lab and the project's principal investigator. "We see that there is a lot more extreme weather that is likely to happen in the future -- and by looking at actual weather patterns, we show that changes in extreme precipitation will actually be more extreme than previously estimated. Land use managers and planners should expect more extremes, but location matters."

The LOCA2 data set updates a similar analysis conducted in 2016 in advance of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA), which was released in 2018 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The NCA is intended to assist the U.S. government with planning for, mitigating, and adapting to changes in climate that will affect the country. The Fifth NCA is expected to be issued later this year.

LOCA2 projections cover the lower 48 states of the United States, southern Canada, and northern Mexico. The data set draws on more than 70 years of weather data and incorporates 27 updated climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the latest iteration of an international effort to simulate climate that includes the "coupling" of natural systems such as the ocean and atmosphere to understand how they will act in concert as climate changes.

"We've spent a lot of effort improving the representation of extreme wet days, which is important for understanding both the likelihood of flooding and the availability of water for agricultural, commercial, and residential use," said David Pierce, a scientist at Scripps Oceanography and the developer of LOCA and LOCA2.

The LOCA2 climate projections are available through the end of the century down to the daily level, and for three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as SSPs, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The three scenarios are a medium level of emissions that is slightly less than current levels (SSP 245), medium-high (SSP 370), and high, where emissions greatly increase (SSP 585). The data set is freely available for planners and decision makers to use.

The projection reinforces what climate scientists have long predicted: Future weather events will become more extreme in a warming world. LOCA2 finds that the heaviest days of rain and snowfall across much of North America will likely release 20 to 30 percent more moisture than they do now. Much of the increased precipitation will occur in winter, potentially exacerbating flooding in regions such as the upper Midwest and the west coast.

"The big picture is clear: it's getting warmer and wetter," Feldman said. "This research translates that bigger picture into more practical data for infrastructure and operations planning. With this more detailed look at local impacts, we can help local officials make better-informed decisions, such as how long to make an airport runway, how much resilience to include for constructing buildings or bridges, or where to put crops or culverts."

The improved set of LOCA2 data was created by better identifying and preserving extreme weather events in the past, training models to more accurately reflect extremes in simulations of the future.

"We undertook a Herculean effort of personnel and computer time not just to produce a bunch of numbers, but to produce local projections that are relevant and useful," Feldman said. "We do so by recognizing how heat waves and storms have occurred and will occur at the local level, and projecting those forward."

Seasonal and regional predictions

While the data varies at the local level, researchers found substantial trends across the area covered by LOCA2 at the end of the century.

Across most seasons, a major part of North America will see roughly the same or fewer number of days with precipitation, roughly the same or fewer number of days with light and medium amounts of precipitation, and a large increase in the number of days with the most extreme precipitation (the top 1 percent and 0.1 percent of storms).

"People will be more affected by the really rare and most extreme events, because those are showing the biggest increase," said Pierce, who is the lead author of the paper on extreme precipitation published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology. "The wettest day you would expect to see in five years, or 50 years, or 500 years -- those extreme events are going to be substantially wetter, and that's a really big issue, because it has implications for flooding and run-off."

Southern Canada and most of the United States will see increases in extreme precipitation days that occur primarily in winter. The wettest days of precipitation will increase by 20-30 percent, depending on the emissions scenario and how extreme the storm is.

Arizona, New Mexico, and northern Mexico can expect increases in extreme precipitation days that occur primarily in autumn. The wettest days of precipitation increase by 10-30 percent, depending on which emissions scenarios come to be and how extreme the storms are. While the region becomes drier overall, the number of days with extreme precipitation events still goes up, meaning the precipitation that does come will often do so in larger storms.

"It's quite interesting that you see the same kind of pattern of fewer low- and medium- precipitation days and more extreme precipitation days across pretty much the entire country," Pierce said. Knowing the changing character of precipitation and the frequency of extreme events is useful in two ways, Pierce added. "One is for building new infrastructure in the future, and one is for understanding impacts upon existing facilities already there."

Read more at Science Daily

Study reveals new clues about how 'Earth's thermostat' controls climate

Rocks, rain and carbon dioxide help control Earth's climate over thousands of years -- like a thermostat -- through a process called weathering. A new study led by Penn State scientists may improve our understanding of how this thermostat responds as temperatures change.

"Life has been on this planet for billions of years, so we know Earth's temperature has remained consistent enough for there to be liquid water and to support life," said Susan Brantley, Evan Pugh University Professor and Barnes Professor of Geosciences at Penn State. "The idea is that silicate rock weathering is this thermostat, but no one has ever really agreed on its temperature sensitivity."

Because many factors go into weathering, it has been challenging to use results of laboratory experiments alone to create global estimates of how weathering responds to temperature changes, the scientists said.

The team combined laboratory measurements and soil analysis from 45 soil sites around the world and many watersheds to better understand weathering of the major rock types on Earth and used those findings to create a global estimate for how weathering responds to temperature.

"When you do experiments in the laboratory versus taking samples from soil or a river, you get different values," Brantley said. "So what we tried to do in this research is look across those different spatial scales and figure out how we can make sense of all this data geochemists around the world been accumulating about weathering on the planet. And this study is a model for how we can do that."

Weathering represents part of a balancing act of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere. Volcanoes have emitted large amounts of carbon dioxide through Earth's history, but instead of turning the planet into a hot house, the greenhouse gas is slowly removed via weathering.

Rain takes the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and creates a weak acid that falls to Earth and wears away silicate rocks the surface. The byproducts are carried by streams and rivers to the ocean where the carbon is eventually locked away in sedimentary rocks, the scientists said.

"It has long been hypothesized that the balance between carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere from volcanoes and being pulled out by weathering over millions of years holds the temperature of the planet relatively constant," Brantley said. "The key is when there is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the planet gets hotter, weathering goes faster and pulls more carbon dioxide out. And when the planet is cooler, weathering slows down."

But much remains unknown about how sensitive weathering is to changing temperatures, partly because of the long spatial and time scales involved.

"In a soil profile, you are seeing a picture of soil where the camera shutter was open for sometimes a million years -- there are integrated processes happening for a million years and you're trying to compare that with a two-year flask experiment," Brantley said.

Brantley said the field of critical zone science -- which examines landscapes from the tallest vegetation to the deepest groundwater -- has helped scientists better understand the complex interactions that influence weathering.

For example, rocks must fracture for water to get in cracks and start breaking down the materials. For that to happen, the rock must have large, exposed surface areas, and that is less likely to happen in regions where soil is deeper.

"It's only when you start crossing spatial and time scales that you start seeing what's really important," Brantley said. "Surface area is really important. You can measure all the rate constants you want for that solution in the lab, but until you can tell me how does surface area form out there in the natural system, you are never going to be able to predict the real system."

The scientists reported in the journal Science that temperature sensitivity measurements in the laboratory were lower than estimates from soils and rivers in their study. Using observations from the lab and field sites, they upscaled their findings to estimate the global temperature dependance of weathering.

Their model may be helpful for understanding how weathering will respond to future climate change, and in evaluating human-made attempts to increase weathering to draw more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere -- like carbon sequestration.

"One idea has been to enhance weathering by digging up a lot of rock, grinding it, transporting it and putting it out in the fields to let weathering happen," Brantley said. "And that will work -- it's already working. The problem is, it's a very slow process."

Though warming may speed up weathering, pulling all the carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere that humans have added could take thousands or hundreds of thousands of years, the scientists said.

Read more at Science Daily

Climate change to produce more rainbows

Climate change will increase opportunities to see rainbows, according to a new study led by researchers at the University of Hawai'i (UH) at Manoa. The study's authors estimate that by 2100, the average land location on Earth will experience about 5% more days with rainbows than at the beginning of the 21st century. Northern latitudes and very high elevations, where warming is predicted to lead to less snow and more rain, will experience the greatest gains in rainbow occurrence. However, places with reduced rainfall under climate change -- such as the Mediterranean -- are projected to lose rainbow days.

Rainbows are produced when water droplets refract sunlight. Sunlight and rainfall are therefore essential ingredients for rainbows. Human activities such as burning fossil fuels are warming the atmosphere, which changes patterns and amounts of rainfall and cloud cover.

"Living in Hawai'i, I felt grateful that stunning, ephemeral rainbows were a part of my daily life," said the lead author of the study, Kimberly Carlson, who is now at New York University's Department of Environmental Studies. "I wondered how climate change might affect such rainbow viewing opportunities."

Camilo Mora, at the UH Manoa Geography and Environment department, was intrigued by the question and pitched it as the focus of a project for one of his graduate courses.

According to Mora, "We often study how climate change directly affects people's health and livelihoods, for instance via the occurrence of heat stroke during climate change-enhanced heat waves."

However, few researchers have examined how climate change might affect the aesthetic qualities of our environment, and no one had bothered to map rainbow occurrences, much less under climate change.

To answer this question, a team including students at UH Manoa looked at photographs uploaded to Flickr, a social media platform where people share photographs. They sorted through tens of thousands of photos taken around the world, labeled with the word "rainbow," to identify rainbows generated from the refraction of light by rain droplets.

Amanda Wong, then an undergraduate student in Global Environmental Science in the UH Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) and a co-author on the paper, noted, "We had to sort through photos of rainbow artwork, rainbow flags, rainbow trout, rainbow eucalyptus, and rainbow foods to find the real rainbows."

Then, the scientists trained a rainbow prediction model based on rainbow photo locations and maps of precipitation, cloud cover, and sun angle. Finally, they applied their model to predict present day and future rainbow occurrences over global land areas. The model suggests that islands are rainbow hotspots.

"Islands are the best places to view rainbows," according to Steven Businger, professor of Atmospheric Sciences in SOEST. "This is because island terrain lifts the air during daily sea breezes, producing localized showers surrounded by clear skies that let the sun in to produce majestic rainbows."

The Hawaiian Islands, recently dubbed the "rainbow capital of the world," are predicted to experience a few more days with rainbows per year. The authors stopped short of discussing how changes in rainbow occurrence might affect human wellbeing. However, rainbows are an important part of human culture throughout history and around the world and are aesthetically pleasing.

"Climate change will generate pervasive changes across all aspects of the human experience on Earth. Shifts in intangible parts of our environment -- such as sound and light -- are part of these changes and deserve more attention from researchers," said Carlson.

Read more at Science Daily

Bay Area storms get wetter in a warming world

The December 2014 North American Storm Complex was a powerful winter storm, referred to by some as California's "Storm of the Decade." Fueled by an atmospheric river originating over the tropical waters of the Pacific Ocean, the storm dropped 8 inches of rainfall in 24 hours, sported wind gusts of 139 miles per hour, and left 150,000 households without power across the San Francisco Bay Area.

Writing in Weather and Climate Extremes this week, researchers described the potential impacts of climate change on extreme storms in the San Francisco Bay area, among them the December 2014 North American Storm Complex.

Re-simulating five of the most powerful storms that have hit the area, they determined that under future conditions some of these extreme events would deliver 26-37% more rain, even more than is predicted simply by accounting for air's ability to carry more water in warmer conditions.

However, they found these increases would not occur with every storm, only those that include an atmospheric river accompanied by an extratropical cyclone.

The research -- funded by the City and County of San Francisco and in partnership with agencies including the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, Port of San Francisco, and San Francisco International Airport -- will help the region plan its future infrastructure with mitigation and sustainability in mind.

"Having this level of detail is a game changer," said Dennis Herrera, General Manager of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, which was the lead City agency on the study. "This groundbreaking data will help us develop tools to allow our port, airport, utilities, and the City as a whole to adapt to our changing climate and increasingly extreme storms."

These first-of-their-kind forecasts for the city were made possible by the Stampede2 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) and the Cori system at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) -- two of the most powerful supercomputers in the world, supported by the National Science Foundation and Department of Energy respectively.

Hindcasting With the Future in Mind

Certain facets of our future climate are well established -- higher temperatures, rising seas, species loss. But how will greater greenhouse gas concentrations and warmer air and oceans effect extreme weather, like hurricanes, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall? And where precisely will these changes be the greatest and under what conditions?

Forecasting the natural hazards of the future is the mission of Christina Patricola, Assistant Professor of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences at Iowa State University and lead author on the Weather and Climate Extremes paper. Her research helps quantify and understand the risks we face from natural hazards in the future.

Using supercomputers allowed Patricola to model the region with 3 kilometer resolution. Scientists believe this level of detail is needed to capture the dynamics of storm systems like hurricanes and atmospheric rivers, and to predict their impact on an urban area.

For each of the historical storms, Patricola and her collaborators ran 10-member ensembles -- independent, slightly different simulations -- with 3 kilometer resolution, a process called 'hindcasting' (as opposed to forecasting). They then adjusted the greenhouse gas concentrations and sea-surface temperatures to predict how these historical storms would look in the projected future climates of 2050 and 2100.

Patricola calls these "storyline" experiments: computer models that are meant to be instructive for thinking about how historically-impactful storm events could look in a warmer world. Focusing on events that were known to be impactful to city operations provides a useful context for understanding the potential impacts of events if they occurred under future climate conditions.

The study doesn't address changes in the frequency of extreme storms in the future and therefore can't address how precipitation will change overall, she said. (Another pressing question for California planners.) But they can help decision-makers understand trends in the intensity of the worst-case-scenario storms and make informed choices.

On the West Coast, much of the precipitation that falls is associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport a substantial amount of moisture in a narrow band, Patricola explained. Some of the storms they looked at featured ARs alone. Others had ARs at the same time as low-pressure systems known as extratropical cyclones (ETCs).

"We found something very interesting," she said. "Precipitation increased substantially for events with an atmospheric river and a cyclone together, whereas precipitation changes were weak or negative when there was only an atmospheric river."

The difference, she believes, lies in the lifting mechanism. In general, heavy precipitation requires moist air to ascend. While the AR-only storms showed a future increase in atmospheric moisture, the storms with an AR and ETC showed a future increase in atmospheric moisture and rising air. Additional investigations will explore this relationship.

High Performance Climate Science

Patricola has used TACC supercomputers for climate and weather modeling since 2010, when she was a graduate student at Cornell University working with leading climate scientist, Kerry Cook (now at The University of Texas at Austin). She recalls that her first models had a horizontal resolution of 90 km -- 30 times less resolved than today -- and were considered state-of-the-art at the time.

"It was a very big help to have the resource from TACC and NERSC for these simulations," she said. "We're interested in extreme precipitation totals and hourly rainfall rates. We had to go to a high resolution of 3 km to make these predictions. And as we increase resolution, the computational expense goes up."

Patricola has used the methodology she developed to understand other phenomena, like how tropical cyclones may change in the future. She and collaborator Michael Wehner reported on these changes in a 2018 Nature paper. "If a hurricane like Katrina happened at the end of the 21st century, what could it be like? More rainfall, higher winds? Our method can be used for any type of weather system that can be hindcasted."

In the next phase of the San Francisco project, Patricola will work with city staff and their collaborators to understand what the weather changes mean in terms of city operations.

Read more at Science Daily

Researchers discover source of super-fast electron 'rain'

UCLA scientists have discovered a new source of super-fast, energetic electrons raining down on Earth, a phenomenon that contributes to the colorful aurora borealis but also poses hazards to satellites, spacecraft and astronauts.

The researchers observed unexpected, rapid "electron precipitation" from low-Earth orbit using the ELFIN mission, a pair of tiny satellites built and operated on the UCLA campus by undergraduate and graduate students guided by a small team of staff mentors.

By combining the ELFIN data with more distant observations from NASA's THEMIS spacecraft, the scientists determined that the sudden downpour was caused by whistler waves, a type of electromagnetic wave that ripples through plasma in space and affects electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere, causing them to "spill over" into the atmosphere.

Their findings, published March 25 in the journal Nature Communications, demonstrate that whistler waves are responsible for far more electron rain than current theories and space weather models predict.

"ELFIN is the first satellite to measure these super-fast electrons," said Xiaojia Zhang, lead author and a researcher in UCLA's department of Earth, planetary and space sciences. "The mission is yielding new insights due to its unique vantage point in the chain of events that produces them."

Central to that chain of events is the near-Earth space environment, which is filled with charged particles orbiting in giant rings around the planet, called Van Allen radiation belts. Electrons in these belts travel in Slinky-like spirals that literally bounce between the Earth's north and south poles. Under certain conditions, whistler waves are generated within the radiation belts, energizing and speeding up the electrons. This effectively stretches out the electrons' travel path so much that they fall out of the belts and precipitate into the atmosphere, creating the electron rain.

One can imagine the Van Allen belts as a large reservoir filled with water -- or, in this case, electrons, said Vassilis Angelopolous, a UCLA professor of space physics and ELFIN's principal investigator. As the reservoir fills, water periodically spirals down into a relief drain to keep the basin from overflowing. But when large waves occur in the reservoir, the sloshing water spills over the edge, faster and in greater volume than the relief drainage. ELFIN, which is downstream of both flows, is able to properly measure the contributions from each.

The low-altitude electron rain measurements by ELFIN, combined with the THEMIS observations of whistler waves in space and sophisticated computer modeling, allowed the team to understand in detail the process by which the waves cause rapid torrents of electrons to flow into the atmosphere.

The findings are particularly important because current theories and space weather models, while accounting for other sources of electrons entering the atmosphere, do not predict this extra whistler wave-induced electron flow, which can affect Earth's atmospheric chemistry, pose risks to spacecraft and damage low-orbiting satellites.

The researchers further showed that this type of radiation-belt electron loss to the atmosphere can increase significantly during geomagnetic storms, disturbances caused by enhanced solar activity that can affect near-Earth space and Earth's magnetic environment.

"Although space is commonly thought to be separate from our upper atmosphere, the two are inextricably linked," Angelopoulos said. "Understanding how they're linked can benefit satellites and astronauts passing through the region, which are increasingly important for commerce, telecommunications and space tourism."

Read more at Science Daily

On ancient Earth, it never rained but it poured

Today, we are experiencing the dramatic impacts that even a small increase in global temperatures can have on a planet's climate. Now, imagine an Earth 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than today. Earth likely experienced these temperatures at various times in the distant past and will experience them again hundreds of millions of years from now as the sun continues to brighten.

Little is known about how the atmosphere and climate behaved during these so-called hothouse periods. In a new study, researchers from Harvard University found that during these epochs of extreme heat, Earth may have experienced cycles of dryness followed by massive rain storms hundreds of miles wide that could dump more than a foot of rain in a matter of hours.

"If you were to look at a large patch of the deep tropics today, it's always raining somewhere," said Jacob Seeley, a Postdoctoral Fellow in Environmental Science and Engineering at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) and the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at Harvard and first author of the paper. "But we found that in extremely warm climates, there could be multiple days with no rain anywhere over a huge part of the ocean. Then, suddenly, a massive rainstorm would erupt over almost the entire domain, dumping a tremendous amount of rain. Then it would be quiet for a couple of days and repeat."

"This episodic cycle of deluges is a new and completely unexpected atmospheric state" said Robin Wordsworth, the Gordon McKay Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering at SEAS and senior author of the study.

The research not only sheds light on Earth's distant past and far-flung future but may also help to understand the climates of exoplanets orbiting distant stars.

The research is published in Nature.

In an atmospheric model, Seeley and Wordsworth cranked up Earth's sea surface temperature to a scalding 130 degrees Fahrenheit, either by adding more CO2 -- about 64-times the amount currently in the atmosphere -- or by increasing the brightness of the sun by about 10 percent.

At those temperatures, surprising things start happening in the atmosphere. When the air near the surface becomes extremely warm, absorption of sunlight by atmospheric water vapor heats the air above the surface and forms what's known as an "inhibition layer," a barrier that prevents convective clouds from rising into the upper atmosphere and forming rain clouds.

Instead, all that evaporation gets stuck in the near-surface atmosphere.

At the same time, clouds form in the upper atmosphere, above the inhibition layer, as heat is lost to space. The rain produced in those upper-level clouds evaporates before reaching the surface, returning all that water to the system.

"It's like charging a massive battery," said Seeley. "You have a ton of cooling high in the atmosphere and a ton of evaporation and heating near the surface, separated by this barrier. If something can break through that barrier and allow the surface heat and humidity to break into the cool upper atmosphere, it's going to cause an enormous rainstorm."

That's exactly what happens. After several days, the evaporative cooling from the upper atmosphere's rainstorms erodes the barrier, triggering an hours-long deluge. In one simulation, the researchers observed more rainfall in a six-hour period than some tropical cyclones drop in the U.S. across several days.

After the storm, the clouds dissipate, and precipitation stops for several days as the atmospheric battery recharges and the cycle continues.

"Our research goes to show that there are still a lot of surprises in the climate system," said Seeley. "Although a 30-degree increase in sea surface temperatures is way more than is being predicted for human-caused climate change, pushing atmospheric models into unfamiliar territory can reveal glimpses of what the Earth is capable of."

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How quickly does the climate recover?

Climate change is causing temperatures to rise and is also increasing the likelihood of storms, heavy rain, and flooding -- the recent flood disaster in the Ahr valley in Germany is just one such example. What we need to ask ourselves in this connection is how quickly the climate can recover from the warming caused by an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Professor Philip Pogge von Strandmann of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU), Germany, set out to investigate this aspect by considering the significant rise in global temperatures of five to eight degrees Celsius that took place 56 million years ago -- the fastest natural period of global warming that has impacted on our climate, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). It was most likely triggered by a volcanic eruption that released huge amounts of carbon dioxide or CO2 into the atmosphere. We know that the higher the temperature, the faster rock will weather, and, in addition, if there is a lot of CO2 in the atmosphere, some of it will react with water, forming carbonic acid -- the very acid that promotes and accelerates the weathering process. Because of the weathering process, this atmospheric carbon will eventually find its way into the seas via rivers, where it binds CO2 as carbonate and form a persistent ocean-based reservoir of carbon dioxide. "Our theory was that if rock weathers faster due to the increased temperatures, it also helps convert a lot of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into insoluble carbonate in seawater -- meaning that, over the long term, CO2 levels would end up falling again and the climate would ultimately recover," explained Pogge von Strandmann. This effect could have helped to keep the Earth's climate fairly stable over billions of years and it could have even prevented the total extinction of all life on the planet.

Weathering of rocks contributes to climate stabilization

In order to test this theory, Professor Philip Pogge von Strandmann and his team decided to analyze the weathering processes that occurred during the warming event 56 million years ago. Their findings indicate that the theory may well be correct. "Rock weathering during that time increased by 50 percent as a result of global warming; erosion -- the physical part of weathering -- actually tripled. Another consequence of the rise in temperature was that evaporation, rainfall, and storms also increased, which then led to even more erosion. As a result of this increased rock weathering, the climate stabilized, but it took between 20,000 and 50,000 years for this to happen," said Pogge von Strandmann, summarizing the team's findings.

But how did the researchers come to these conclusions? After all, these weathering processes took place 56 million years ago. The answer lies in the rocks themselves. When rocks dissolve, they release lithium -- the isotopes lithium-6 and lithium-7 to be precise -- which escapes into any surrounding water. The proportion of the isotopes lithium-6 and lithium-7 present in water is determined by the type of weathering, in other words, the amount of erosion produced by weathering. Clay, which is found at the bottom of the sea, mainly stores lithium-6, while lithium-7 remains in the water. The research team conducted two types of scientific investigation: They examined marine carbonates that were formed 56 million years ago -- a type of rock that absorbs chemical components from water. They also investigated clay minerals from Denmark and Svalbard, which also formed during this period, looking at the relative proportions of lithium isotopes in these two different kinds of minerals. The researchers were able to use the data obtained to draw conclusions about weathering and climate 56 million years ago. Their results have been published in the journal Science Advances.

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Raindrops also keep fallin' on exoplanets

One day, humankind may step foot on another habitable planet. That planet may look very different from Earth, but one thing will feel familiar -- the rain.

In a recent paper, Harvard researchers found that raindrops are remarkably similar across different planetary environments, even planets as drastically different as Earth and Jupiter. Understanding the behavior of raindrops on other planets is key to not only revealing the ancient climate on planets like Mars but identifying potentially habitable planets outside our solar system.

"The lifecycle of clouds is really important when we think about planet habitability," said Kaitlyn Loftus, a graduate student in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and lead author of the paper. "But clouds and precipitation are really complicated and too complex to model completely. We're looking for simpler ways to understand how clouds evolve, and a first step is whether cloud droplets evaporate in the atmosphere or make it to the surface as rain."

"The humble raindrop is a vital component of the precipitation cycle for all planets," said Robin Wordsworth, Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) and senior author of the paper. "If we understand how individual raindrops behave, we can better represent rainfall in complex climate models."

An essential aspect of raindrop behavior, at least to climate modelers, is whether or not the raindrop makes it to the surface of the planet because water in the atmosphere plays a big role in planetary climate. To that end, size matters. Too big and the drop will break apart due to insufficient surface tension, regardless of whether it's water, methane or superheated, liquid iron as on an exoplanet called WASP-76b. Too small and the drop will evaporate before hitting the surface.

Loftus and Wordsworth identified a Goldilocks zone for raindrop size using just three properties: drop shape, falling speed, and evaporation speed.

Drop shapes are the same across different rain materials and primarily depend on how heavy the drop is. While many of us may picture a traditional tear-shaped droplet, raindrops are actually spherical when small, becoming squashed as they grow larger until they transition into a shape like the top of a hamburger bun. Falling speed depends on this shape as well as gravity and the thickness of the surrounding air.

Evaporation speed is more complicated, influenced by atmospheric composition, pressure, temperature, relative humidity and more.

By taking all of these properties into account, Loftus and Wordsworth found that across a wide range of planetary conditions, the math of raindrop falling means only a very small fraction of the possible drop sizes in a cloud can reach the surface.

"We can use this behavior to guide us as we model cloud cycles on exoplanets," said Loftus.

"The insights we gain from thinking about raindrops and clouds in diverse environments are key to understanding exoplanet habitability," said Wordsworth. "In the long term, they can also help us gain a deeper understanding of the climate of Earth itself."

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California's rainy season starting nearly a month later than it did 60 years ago

 The start of California's annual rainy season has been pushed back from November to December, prolonging the state's increasingly destructive wildfire season by nearly a month, according to new research. The study cannot confirm the shift is connected to climate change, but the results are consistent with climate models that predict drier autumns for California in a warming climate, according to the authors.

Wildfires can occur at any time in California, but fires typically burn from May through October, when the state is in its dry season. The start of the rainy season, historically in November, ends wildfire season as plants become too moist to burn.

California's rainy season has been starting progressively later in recent decades and climate scientists have projected it will get shorter as the climate warms. In the new study, researchers analyzed rainfall and weather data in California over the past six decades. The results show the official onset of California's rainy season is 27 days later than it was in the 1960s and the rain that does fall is being concentrated during the months of January and February.

"What we've shown is that it will not happen in the future, it's happening already," said Jelena Luković, a climate scientist at the University of Belgrade in Serbia and lead author of the new study. "The onset of the rainy season has been progressively delayed since the 1960s, and as a result the precipitation season has become shorter and sharper in California."

The new study in AGU's journal Geophysical Research Letters, which publishes high-impact, short-format reports with immediate implications spanning all Earth and space sciences, is the first to quantify just how much later the rainy season now begins.

The results suggest California's wildfire season, which has been getting progressively worse due to human-caused climate change, will last even longer in the years to come and Californians can expect to see more fires flaring up in the month of November. 2020 was California's worst wildfire season on record, with nearly 10,000 fires burning more than 4.2 million acres of land.

An extended dry season means there is more overlap between wildfire season and the influx of Santa Ana winds that bring hot, dry weather to California in the fall. These winds can fan the flames of wildfires and increase the risk of late-season fires getting out of hand.

"It's not just a matter of making the vegetation drier and keeping all else equal," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Los Angeles who was not involved in the study. "You're also increasing the number of opportunities for extremely dry vegetation and extremely strong offshore winds to coincide."

The delay in the start of the rainy season is likely due to changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns that bring precipitation to the West Coast, according to the study authors. They found the atmospheric circulation pattern that dominates California during the summer is extending into fall across the north Pacific Ocean. This change is bringing more rain to the states of Washington and Oregon and leaving California high and dry.

The changes mean Californians will need to better plan how they manage water resources and energy production -- a longer dry season means more irrigation is needed for crops in an already water-stressed state.

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Climate change in antiquity: Mass emigration due to water scarcity

 The absence of monsoon rains at the source of the Nile was the cause of migrations and the demise of entire settlements in the late Roman province of Egypt. This demographic development has been compared with environmental data for the first time by professor of ancient history, Sabine Huebner of the University of Basel -- leading to a discovery of climate change and its consequences.

The oasis-like Faiyum region, roughly 130 km south-west of Cairo, was the breadbasket of the Roman Empire. Yet at the end of the third century CE, numerous formerly thriving settlements there declined and were ultimately abandoned by their inhabitants. Previous excavations and contemporary papyri have shown that problems with field irrigation were the cause. Attempts by local farmers to adapt to the dryness and desertification of the farmland -- for example, by changing their agricultural practices -- are also documented.

Volcanic eruption and monsoon rains

Basel professor of ancient history Sabine R. Huebner has now shown in the US journal Studies in Late Antiquity that changing environmental conditions were behind this development. Existing climate data indicates that the monsoon rains at the headwaters of the Nile in the Ethiopian Highlands suddenly and permanently weakened. The result was lower high-water levels of the river in summer. Evidence supporting this has been found in geological sediment from the Nile Delta, Faiyum and the Ethiopian Highlands, which provides long-term climate data on the monsoons and the water level of the Nile.

A powerful tropical volcanic eruption around 266 CE, which in the following year brought a below-average flood of the Nile, presumably also played a role. Major eruptions are known from sulfuric acid deposits in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, and can be dated to within three years. Particles hurled up into the stratosphere lead to a cooling of the climate, disrupting the local monsoon system.

New insights into climate, environment, and society

In the third century CE, the entire Roman Empire was hit by crises that are relatively well documented in the province of Egypt by more than 26,000 preserved papyri (documents written on sheets of papyrus). In the Faiyum region, these include records of inhabitants who switched to growing vines instead of grain or to sheep farming due to the scarcity of water. Others accused their neighbors of water theft or turned to the Roman authorities for tax relief. These and other adaptive strategies of the population delayed the death of their villages for several decades.

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Climate change will alter the position of the Earth's tropical rain belt

 Future climate change will cause a regionally uneven shifting of the tropical rain belt -- a narrow band of heavy precipitation near the equator -- according to researchers at the University of California, Irvine and other institutions. This development may threaten food security for billions of people.

In a study published today in Nature Climate Change, the interdisciplinary team of environmental engineers, Earth system scientists and data science experts stressed that not all parts of the tropics will be affected equally. For instance, the rain belt will move north in parts of the Eastern Hemisphere but will move south in areas in the Western Hemisphere.

According to the study, a northward shift of the tropical rain belt over the eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean will result in future increases of drought stress in southeastern Africa and Madagascar, in addition to intensified flooding in southern India. A southward creeping of the rain belt over the eastern Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean will cause greater drought stress in Central America.

"Our work shows that climate change will cause the position of Earth's tropical rain belt to move in opposite directions in two longitudinal sectors that cover almost two thirds of the globe, a process that will have cascading effects on water availability and food production around the world," said lead author Antonios Mamalakis, who recently received a Ph.D. in civil & environmental engineering in the Henry Samueli School of Engineering at UCI and is currently a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.

The team made the assessment by examining computer simulations from 27 state-of-the-art climate models and measuring the tropical rain belt's response to a future scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise through the end of the current century.

Mamalakis said the sweeping shift detected in his work was disguised in previous modelling studies that provided a global average of the influence of climate change on the tropical rain belt. Only by isolating the response in the Eastern and Western Hemisphere zones was his team able to highlight the drastic alterations to come over future decades.

Co-author James Randerson, UCI's Ralph J. & Carol M. Cicerone Chair in Earth System Science, explained that climate change causes the atmosphere to heat up by different amounts over Asia and the North Atlantic Ocean.

"In Asia, projected reductions in aerosol emissions, glacier melting in the Himalayas and loss of snow cover in northern areas brought on by climate change will cause the atmosphere to heat up faster than in other regions," he said. "We know that the rain belt shifts toward this heating, and that its northward movement in the Eastern Hemisphere is consistent with these expected impacts of climate change."

He added that the weakening of the Gulf Stream current and deep-water formation in the North Atlantic is likely to have the opposite effect, causing a southward shift in the tropical rain belt across the Western Hemisphere.

"The complexity of the Earth system is daunting, with dependencies and feedback loops across many processes and scales," said corresponding author Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, UCI Distinguished Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering and the Henry Samueli Endowed Chair in Engineering. "This study combines the engineering approach of system's thinking with data analytics and climate science to reveal subtle and previously unrecognized manifestations of global warming on regional precipitation dynamics and extremes."

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Ground-breaking discovery finally proves rain really can move mountains

 

Paro Taktsang temple complex in Bhutan

A pioneering technique which captures precisely how mountains bend to the will of raindrops has helped to solve a long-standing scientific enigma.

The dramatic effect rainfall has on the evolution of mountainous landscapes is widely debated among geologists, but new research led by the University of Bristol and published today in Science Advances, clearly calculates its impact, furthering our understanding of how peaks and valleys have developed over millions of years.

Its findings, which focused on the mightiest of mountain ranges -- the Himalaya -- also pave the way for forecasting the possible impact of climate change on landscapes and, in turn, human life.

Lead author Dr Byron Adams, Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellow at the university's Cabot Institute for the Environment, said: "It may seem intuitive that more rain can shape mountains by making rivers cut down into rocks faster. But scientists have also believed rain can erode a landscape quickly enough to essentially 'suck' the rocks out of the Earth, effectively pulling mountains up very quickly.

"Both these theories have been debated for decades because the measurements required to prove them are so painstakingly complicated. That's what makes this discovery such an exciting breakthrough, as it strongly supports the notion that atmospheric and solid earth processes are intimately connected."

While there is no shortage of scientific models aiming to explain how the Earth works, the greater challenge can be making enough good observations to test which are most accurate.

The study was based in the central and eastern Himalaya of Bhutan and Nepal, because this region of the world has become one of the most sampled landscapes for erosion rate studies. Dr Adams, together with collaborators from Arizona State University (ASU) and Louisiana State University, used cosmic clocks within sand grains to measure the speed at which rivers erode the rocks beneath them.

"When a cosmic particle from outer space reaches Earth, it is likely to hit sand grains on hillslopes as they are transported toward rivers. When this happens, some atoms within each grain of sand can transform into a rare element. By counting how many atoms of this element are present in a bag of sand, we can calculate how long the sand has been there, and therefore how quickly the landscape has been eroding," Dr Adams said.

"Once we have erosion rates from all over the mountain range, we can compare them with variations in river steepness and rainfall. However, such a comparison is hugely problematic because each data point is very difficult to produce and the statistical interpretation of all the data together is complicated."

Dr Adams overcame this challenge by combining regression techniques with numerical models of how rivers erode.

"We tested a wide variety of numerical models to reproduce the observed erosion rate pattern across Bhutan and Nepal. Ultimately only one model was able to accurately predict the measured erosion rates," Dr Adams said.

"This model allows us for the first time to quantify how rainfall affects erosion rates in rugged terrain."

Research collaborator Professor Kelin Whipple, Professor of Geology at ASU, said: "Our findings show how critical it is to account for rainfall when assessing patterns of tectonic activity using topography, and also provide an essential step forward in addressing how much the slip rate on tectonic faults may be controlled by climate-driven erosion at the surface."

The study findings also carry important implications for land use management, infrastructure maintenance, and hazards in the Himalaya.

In the Himalaya, there is the ever-present risk that high erosion rates can drastically increase sedimentation behind dams, jeopardising critical hydropower projects. The findings also suggest greater rainfall can undermine hillslopes, increasing the risk of debris flows or landslides, some of which may be large enough to dam the river creating a new hazard -- lake outburst floods.

Dr Adams added: "Our data and analysis provides an effective tool for estimating patterns of erosion in mountainous landscapes such as the Himalaya, and thus, can provide invaluable insight into the hazards that influence the hundreds of millions of people who live within and at the foot of these mountains."

The research was funded by the Royal Society, the UK Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) of the US.

Building on this important research, Dr Adams is currently exploring how landscapes respond after large volcanic eruptions.

"This new frontier of landscape evolution modelling is also shedding new light on volcanic processes. With our cutting-edge techniques to measure erosion rates and rock properties, we will be able to better understand how rivers and volcanoes have influenced each other in the past," Dr Adams said.

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Climate change will cause more extreme wet and dry seasons

The world can expect more rainfall as the climate changes, but it can also expect more water to evaporate, complicating efforts to manage reservoirs and irrigate crops in a growing world, according to a Clemson University researcher whose latest work has been published in the journal Nature Communications.

Ashok Mishra, who is the corresponding author on the new article, said that previous studies have focused mostly on how climate change will affect precipitation. But the key contribution of the new study is that it also examined the magnitude and variability of precipitation and evaporation and how much water will be available during the wettest and driest months of the year.

Researchers found that dry seasons will become drier, and wet seasons will become wetter, said Mishra, who is the Dean's Associate Professor in the Glenn Department of Civil Engineering.

Most of the Eastern United States, including all of South Carolina, has high precipitation that it is well distributed throughout the year, researchers found. The region and others like it can expect greater precipitation and evaporation in both wet and dry seasons, according to the study. The amount of water available will vary more widely than it does now, researchers found.

The greatest concern for such regions will be more flooding, Mishra said in an interview.

The regions that will be hardest hit by climate change are the ones that already get slammed with rain during wet seasons and struggle with drought during dry seasons, researchers found. They include much of India and its neighbors to the east, including Bangladesh and Myanmar, along with an inland swath of Brazil, two sections running east-west across Africa, and northern Australia, according to the study.

"The regions which already have more drought and flooding relative to other regions will further see an increase in these events," Mishra said.

As part of the study, researchers divided the world into nine land regions, or regimes. They looked at annual precipitation and how it fluctuates through the seasons for each region from 1971-2000.

Researchers then used that data to predict future water availability during each region's three wettest months and three driest months. They evaluated three scenarios based on multiple global climate models.

The best case scenario for relatively stable water availability during wet and dry seasons is that the global temperature will stabilize at 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, according to the study.

But researchers also looked at what would happen if the temperature were to rise to 3.5 degrees Celsius or 5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

The higher the temperature, the more variation in water availability, researchers found.

Mishra said that his message to the world is that water is a very important resource.

"The availability of this resource is an issue everybody is facing," he said. "We need to take precautions to optimally use how much water we have. As the climate changes and population increases, we should be preparing for the future by improving the technology to efficiently use water for crops."

Jesus M. de la Garza, chair of the Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, congratulated Mishra on publication of the research.

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Exoplanet where it rains iron discovered

Researchers using ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) have observed an extreme planet where they suspect it rains iron. The ultra-hot giant exoplanet has a day side where temperatures climb above 2400 degrees Celsius, high enough to vaporise metals. Strong winds carry iron vapour to the cooler night side where it condenses into iron droplets.

"One could say that this planet gets rainy in the evening, except it rains iron," says David Ehrenreich, a professor at the University of Geneva in Switzerland. He led a study, published today in the journal Nature, of this exotic exoplanet. Known as WASP-76b, it is located some 640 light-years away in the constellation of Pisces.

This strange phenomenon happens because the 'iron rain' planet only ever shows one face, its day side, to its parent star, its cooler night side remaining in perpetual darkness. Like the Moon on its orbit around the Earth, WASP-76b is 'tidally locked': it takes as long to rotate around its axis as it does to go around the star.

On its day side, it receives thousands of times more radiation from its parent star than the Earth does from the Sun. It's so hot that molecules separate into atoms, and metals like iron evaporate into the atmosphere. The extreme temperature difference between the day and night sides results in vigorous winds that bring the iron vapour from the ultra-hot day side to the cooler night side, where temperatures decrease to around 1500 degrees Celsius.

Not only does WASP-76b have different day-night temperatures, it also has distinct day-night chemistry, according to the new study. Using the new ESPRESSO instrument on ESO's VLT in the Chilean Atacama Desert, the astronomers identified for the first time chemical variations on an ultra-hot gas giant planet. They detected a strong signature of iron vapour at the evening border that separates the planet's day side from its night side. "Surprisingly, however, we do not see the iron vapour in the morning," says Ehrenreich. The reason, he says, is that "it is raining iron on the night side of this extreme exoplanet."

"The observations show that iron vapour is abundant in the atmosphere of the hot day side of WASP-76b," adds María Rosa Zapatero Osorio, an astrophysicist at the Centre for Astrobiology in Madrid, Spain, and the chair of the ESPRESSO science team. "A fraction of this iron is injected into the night side owing to the planet's rotation and atmospheric winds. There, the iron encounters much cooler environments, condenses and rains down."

This result was obtained from the very first science observations done with ESPRESSO, in September 2018, by the scientific consortium who built the instrument: a team from Portugal, Italy, Switzerland, Spain and ESO.

ESPRESSO -- the Echelle SPectrograph for Rocky Exoplanets and Stable Spectroscopic Observations -- was originally designed to hunt for Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars. However, it has proven to be much more versatile. "We soon realised that the remarkable collecting power of the VLT and the extreme stability of ESPRESSO made it a prime machine to study exoplanet atmospheres," says Pedro Figueira, ESPRESSO instrument scientist at ESO in Chile.

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Downpours of torrential rain more frequent with global warming

The frequency of downpours of heavy rain -- which can lead to flash floods, devastation, and outbreaks of waterborne disease -- has increased across the globe in the past 50 years, research led by the Global Institute for Water Security at the University of Saskatchewan (USask) has found.

The number of extreme downpours increased steadily between 1964 and 2013 -- a period when global warming also intensified, according to research published in the journal Water Resources Research.

The frequency of 'extreme precipitation events' increased in parts of Canada, most of Europe, the Midwest and northeast region of the U.S., northern Australia, western Russia and parts of China, (see maps and graphics).

"By introducing a new approach to analyzing extremes, using thousands of rain records, we reveal a clear increase in the frequency extreme rain events over the recent 50 years when global warming accelerated," said Simon Papalexiou, a hydro-climatologist in USask's College of Engineering, and an expert in hydroclimatic extremes and random processes.

Papalexiou, who led the research, added: "This upward trend is highly unlikely to be explained by natural climatic variability. The probability of this happening is less than 0.3 per cent under the model assumptions used."

The USask study of over 8,700 daily rain records from 100,000 stations monitoring rain worldwide found the frequency of torrential rain between 1964 and 2013 increased as the decades progressed.

Between 2004 and 2013, there were seven per cent more extreme bouts of heavy rain overall than expected globally. In Europe and Asia, there were 8.6 per cent more 'extreme rain events' overall, during this decade.

Global warming can lead to increased precipitation because more heat in the atmosphere leads to more atmospheric water which, in turn, leads to rain.

Torrents of rain not only lead to flooding, but can threaten public health, overwhelming sewage treatment plants and increasing microbial contaminants of water. More than half a million deaths were caused by rain-induced floods between 1980 and 2009.

Heavy rain can also cause landslides, damage crops, collapse buildings and bridges, wreck homes, and lead to chaos on roads and to transport, with huge financial losses.

Co-author Alberto Montanari, professor of hydraulic works and hydrology at the University of Bologna and president of the European Geoscience Union, said:

"Our results are in line with the assumption that the atmosphere retains more water under global warming. The fact that the frequency, rather the magnitude, of extreme precipitation is significantly increasing has relevant implications for climate adaptation. Human systems need to increase their capability to react to frequent shocks."

The researchers screened data for quality and consistency, selecting the most robust and complete records from the 100,000 stations worldwide monitoring precipitation. Regions in South America and Africa were excluded from the study, as records for the study period were not complete or robust.

Papalexiou said planning for more frequent 'extreme' rain should be a priority for governments, local authorities and emergency services.

"If global warming progresses as climate model projections predict, we had better plan strategies for dealing with frequent heavy rain right now," said Papalexiou. "Our study of records from around the globe shows that potentially devastating bouts of extreme rain are increasing decade by decade.

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