Showing posts with label Warming Climate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warming Climate. Show all posts

Aug 8, 2024

New report on Great Barrier Reef shows coral cover increases before onset of serious bleaching, cyclones

Coral cover has increased in all three regions on the Great Barrier Reef and is at regional highs in two of the three regions, according to a report by the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS). But the results come with a note of caution.

Most of the underwater surveys contributing to these findings published today, were conducted before and during the recent mass bleaching event, one of the most extensive and serious on record, and have not yet captured how many corals survived or died following the bleaching.    

Surveys in the Central region were also completed before the passage of tropical Cyclone Jasper in December 2023.    

AIMS' Long-Term Monitoring Program (LTMP) leader Dr Mike Emslie said coral cover increases were a positive sign but did not reflect the potentially destructive consequences of the 2024 mass bleaching event. 

"We saw evidence of early onset mortality, particularly in the Southern region, but the full picture of mortality was not yet apparent during this year's surveys," he said.

"While bleached corals are very stressed, they are still alive and are recorded as live coral on our surveys. 

"Some types of corals can remain bleached for months, remaining on a knife edge between survival and death. This is why returning and repeating surveys of the reefs in this vast, complex and dynamic system is so important. This year's results serve as a very important reference against which to measure the impacts of the summer's events."

The next (LTMP) survey season recommences in September and will capture impacts on coral cover from this summer's mass bleaching event and the cyclones, with a full assessment complete by mid-2025.  

"Climate change remains the greatest threat to the Reef because it drives these mass bleaching events. This most recent one was the fifth such event since 2016. These more frequent and extensive marine heatwaves will lead to shortened 'windows' for coral recovery. Recent gains, while encouraging, can be lost in a short amount of time," Dr Emslie said.

Surveys were conducted at 94 Reefs spread through the Northern, Central and Southern Great Barrier Reef between August 2023 and June 2024.    

The Report recorded the following average hard coral coverage:    

  •     Northern region (north of Cooktown) -- 39.5%, up from 35.8% last year;    
  •     Central region (Cooktown to Proserpine) -- 34%, up from 30.7%;   
  •     Southern region (south of Proserpine) -- 39.1%, up from 34%.   


The AIMS report finds that small rises in coral cover this year bring the Northern and Central regions to their highest levels in 38 years of monitoring.  

The surveys also found that crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks have persisted on some reefs in the Southern region.    

The long term monitoring team surveyed reefs off Townsville after the passage of tropical Cyclone Kirrily in late January, finding evidence of storm damage and declines in hard coral cover ranging from 6% to 10% at Kelso, John Brewer, Helix and Chicken Reefs. Other reefs appear to have escaped with little impact.    

AIMS Research Program Director Dr David Wachenfeld said the regional increases in coral cover are encouraging, showing the Reef's capacity for recovery after reaching their lowest levels within the last 15 years. However, climate change and other disturbances mean this recovery is fragile and Reef resilience is not limitless.    

"In many ways the Reef has had some lucky escapes in recent years. The 2020 and 2022 mass bleaching events had levels of heat stress that were not as intense as the 2016 and 2017 events or the 2024 event. Coupled with very few other events causing widespread coral death, that has led to the levels of coral cover increase we have seen," he said.   

"But the frequency and intensity of bleaching events is unprecedented, and that is only forecast to escalate under climate change, alongside the persistent threat of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks and tropical cyclones."    

Aerial surveys undertaken by AIMS and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority in February and March found bleached corals in the shallows of 73% of reefs surveyed across all three regions.  

In recent weeks, AIMS scientists in separate monitoring programs observed substantial mortality in reefs that were particularly hard hit by the 2024 event.  

"We are only one large scale disturbance event away from a reversal of the recent recovery. The 2024 bleaching event could be that event -- almost half of the 3000 or so reefs that make up the marine park experienced more heat stress than ever recorded," Dr Wachenfeld said.    

"We still don't know how much mortality this event has caused. Our monitoring over the next 12 months will help us to understand how this bleaching event stacks up against the others in the last decade." 

AIMS CEO Professor Selina Stead said AIMS was prioritising research to develop scientific solutions to boost reef resilience under a warming climate.   

"Climate change is increasing pressure on reef systems around the world," she said.  "The 2024 bleaching event was part of the fourth global bleaching event, announced in April.

"These vitally important ecosystems that millions rely upon need strong greenhouse gas emissions reduction, science-based management of local pressures, and input from multiple fields of research if they are to endure.

"At AIMS we are developing a toolbox of interventions to help reefs adapt to and recover from the effects of climate change."

Read more at Science Daily

Jul 30, 2024

NASA data shows July 22, 2024 was Earth's hottest day on record

July 22, 2024, was the hottest day on record, according to a NASA analysis of global daily temperature data. July 21 and 23 of this year also exceeded the previous daily record, set in July 2023. These record-breaking temperatures are part of a long-term warming trend driven by human activities, primarily the emission of greenhouse gases. As part of its mission to expand our understanding of Earth, NASA collects critical long-term observations of our changing planet.

"In a year that has been the hottest on record to date, these past two weeks have been particularly brutal," said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.

"Through our over two dozen Earth-observing satellites and over 60 years of data, NASA is providing critical analyses of how our planet is changing and how local communities can prepare, adapt, and stay safe. We are proud to be part of the Biden-Harris Administration efforts to protect communities from extreme heat."

This preliminary finding comes from data analyses from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and Goddard Earth Observing System Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) systems, which combine millions of global observations from instruments on land, sea, air, and satellites using atmospheric models.

GEOS-FP provides rapid, near-real time weather data, while the MERRA-2 climate reanalysis takes longer but ensures the use of best quality observations.

These models are run by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

Daily global average temperature values from MERRA-2 for the years 1980-2022 are shown in white, values for the year 2023 are shown in pink, and values from 2024 through June are shown in red.

Daily global temperature values from July 1 to 23, 2024, from GEOS-FP are shown in purple.

The results agree with an independent analysis from the European Union's Copernicus Earth Observation Programme.

While the analyses have small differences, they show broad agreement in the change in temperature over time and hottest days.

Read more at Science Daily

Apr 24, 2024

Asian monsoon lofts ozone-depleting substances to stratosphere

Powerful monsoon winds, strengthened by a warming climate, are lofting unexpectedly large quantities of ozone-depleting substances high into the atmosphere over East Asia, new research shows.

The study, led by the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) and NASA, found that the East Asian Monsoon delivers more than twice the concentration of very short-lived ozone-depleting substances into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere than previously reported.

The research team drew on airborne observations taken during a major 2022 Asian field campaign: the Asian Summer Monsoon Chemistry and Climate Impact Project (ACCLIP). The findings raise questions about the pace of the recovery of the ozone layer, which shields Earth from the Sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation.

"It was a real surprise to fly through a plume with all those very short-lived ozone-depleting substances," said NSF NCAR scientist Laura Pan, the lead author of the study. "These chemicals may have a significant impact on what will happen with the ozone layer, and it's critical to quantify them."

The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. It was funded by NSF, NASA, and NOAA, and co-authored by a large team of international scientists.

The role of monsoons

For thousands of years, people have viewed the Asian summer monsoon as important because of its impacts on local communities. Recently, however, scientists analyzing satellite observations have begun discovering that monsoon storms and winds play an additional role: carrying pollutants high in the atmosphere, where they can influence the world's climate system.

ACCLIP investigated the chemical content of air that was borne by the two primary monsoons in the region -- the South and the East Asian Monsoon -- from Earth's surface to as high up as the stratosphere. Once at that altitude, the chemicals can have far-reaching climate impacts because air in the stratosphere spreads out globally and remains for months to years, unlike the lower atmosphere where air masses turn over weekly.

The ACCLIP observations revealed that the East Asian Monsoon delivered higher levels of pollutants to the upper atmosphere than the South Asian Monsoon during 2022. The scientists measured carbon monoxide levels of up to 320 parts per billion -- a remarkably high level to be found at an altitude of 15 kilometers (about 9 miles). Carbon monoxide is often a sign of industrial pollution, and the measurements indicated that the East Asian Monsoon was closely aligned with emissions of pollutants at the surface.

Pan, Elliot Atlas of the University of Miami, and their co-authors looked into a class of chemicals known as very short-lived organic chlorine compounds, which can destroy ozone but persist only for a relatively short time in the atmosphere (months to years). In contrast, ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) remain in the atmosphere for decades to centuries or more and are therefore viewed as a far more significant threat to the ozone layer.

For that reason, the landmark 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer focused on phasing out CFCs and other long-lived substances. The international treaty and subsequent revisions have enabled stratospheric ozone to begin recovering. A 2022 United Nations assessment concluded that the ozone layer, including an ozone hole over the Antarctic, will be largely restored over the next several decades.

The Montreal Protocol, however, did not limit the continued manufacture and use of very short-lived ozone-depleting substances. Emissions of these chemicals have soared in South and East Asia, including highly industrialized regions of East China.

In an unfortunate coincidence, those regions lie directly under the East Asian Monsoon, which, of the world's eight regional monsoons, is the one that is predicted to strengthen the most with global warming.

The combination of the monsoon's powerful updrafts occurring in the same region as the increasing emissions of short-lived chlorine compounds has resulted in the unexpectedly high quantity of the chemicals being swept into the stratosphere.

The analysis of the aircraft measurements by Pan and her co-authors revealed high levels of five short-lived chlorine compounds: dichloromethane (CH2Cl2), chloroform (CHCl3), 1,2-dichloroethane (C2H4Cl2), tetrachloroethene (C2Cl4), and 1,2-dichloropropane (C3H6Cl2).

Pan said more research is needed to analyze the potential implications for ozone recovery. The paper also notes that scientists will need to incorporate the new findings into climate models, as stratospheric ozone has complex effects on Earth's temperature.

Read more at Science Daily

Mar 26, 2024

Climate change will see Australia's soil emit CO2 and add to global warming

New Curtin University research has shown the warming climate will turn Australia's soil into a net emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2), unless action is taken.

Soil helps to keep the planet cool by absorbing carbon, however as the climate gets warmer its ability to retain carbon decreases -- and in some instances can start to release some carbon back into the air.

A global research team -- led by Professor Raphael Viscarra Rossel from Curtin's School of Molecular and Life Sciences -- predicted the changes in the amount of carbon in Australia's soil between now and the year 2100.

To do so, the team ran simulations using three different paths for society: an eco-focused 'sustainable' scenario, a 'middle-of-the-road' scenario and another which predicted a continued reliance on 'fossil-fuelled development'.

It found Australian soil will be a net emitter and could account for 8.3 per cent of Australia's total current emissions under the 'sustainable' scenario and more than 14 per cent by 2045 under the 'middle-of-the-road' and 'fossil-fuelled' scenarios.

By 2100, soil emissions under both scenarios are predicted to account for an even higher proportion of total emissions, but the predictions are more uncertain.

While some areas with arable farmland could continue to store carbon, the study found it would not be enough to offset the amounts of carbon lost from the soil in areas which are more sensitive to warmer weather, such as coastal regions and Australia's vast rangelands.

Australian soil holds an estimated 28 gigatons of carbon, 70 per cent of which is stored in these rangelands.

"Unless farming methods are further improved so farmland soils can continue to store carbon, any gains and benefit will likely decrease by 2045 and worsen in time, if the Earth continues to warm at its current rate," Professor Viscarra Rossel said.

"This means Australia's soil could release even more carbon into the air instead of storing it, which will in turn make climate change worse.

"If emissions continue at the current rate, the Earth's temperature is expected to reach 2 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures sometime this century, which is predicted to have dire consequences and

potentially catastrophic impacts for the planet."

Professor Viscarra Rossel said more sustainable pathways and improved management and conservation of soils were essential for Australia to meet its emissions reduction goals.

"Ensuring Australia's rangeland soils can maintain their carbon stocks is imperative: capturing and storing additional carbon will require interdisciplinary science, innovation, cultural awareness and effective policies" Professor Viscarra Rossel said.

"It will be challenging, given the rangelands' drier and more variable climate, its relatively sparse vegetation and other factors such as bushfires -- however, only a slight change over such large areas will make a positive difference.

Read more at Science Daily

Feb 23, 2024

Cooler, wetter parts of Pacific Northwest likely to see more fires, new simulations predict

Forests in the coolest, wettest parts of the western Pacific Northwest are likely to see the biggest increases in burn probability, fire size and number of blazes as the climate continues to get warmer and drier, according to new modeling led by an Oregon State University scientist.

Understanding how fire regimes may change under future climate scenarios is critical for developing adaptation strategies, said the study's lead author, Alex Dye.

Findings were published today in JGR Biogeosciences.

Dye, a faculty research associate in the OSU College of Forestry, and collaborators with the U.S. Forest Service conducted novel, comprehensive wildfire simulations for more than 23 million acres of forest land west of the Cascade Range crest in Oregon and Washington.

The simulations showed that by the 30-year period beginning in 2035, Washington's North Cascades region, the Olympic Mountains, the Puget Lowlands and the western Oregon Cascades could see at least twice as much fire activity as was observed during the prior 30 years, Dye said.

To a lesser degree, that trend holds for the western Washington Cascades and the Oregon Coast Range, he added.

Forests in all of the affected areas are linchpins of multiple socio-ecological systems in the Northwest, Dye said, meaning more fire will likely put pressure on everything from drinking water sources and timber resources to biodiversity and carbon stocks.

"The moist, highly productive forests of the Northwest don't get fire as often as other parts of the West, like California or eastern Oregon," Dye said.

"But fire does naturally occur in the PNW 'Westside' as we call it -- the fire regimes are actually quite complex in this region. It can be challenging to assess fire probability in an environment where there isn't a lot of empirical information about the fire history to build models."

The comparative infrequency of fire also means it's easy for the general public to think of the Westside as not a high-risk area, and it also means the region is generally not a focal point of studies such as the one he just completed, Dye said.

But recent big blazes such as those that occurred in the Northwest around Labor Day 2020 showed what can happen when severe fire strikes Westside areas.

"And what if fires like that were to start happening more frequently in the near future?" Dye said.

"What if that once every 200 years became once every 50 years, or once every 25 years as climate change brings hotter and drier conditions to the region?"

Climate is just one factor influencing wildfire, he noted, but it is an important one.

He sees the findings as a crucial planning tool to help the Northwest prepare for a rapid acceleration of fire over the next few decades.

"Describing the possibilities of how, when and where climate change could affect fire regimes helps bracket everyone's expectations," he said.

"Particularly important among our findings are new insights into the possibility of shifts towards more frequent and large fires, especially those greater than 40,000 hectares as well as shifts toward more fires burning at the beginning of fall when extreme weather has the potential to increase fire spread."

Forty thousand hectares is just under 99,000 acres.

Read more at Science Daily

Feb 7, 2024

In a warming world, climate scientists consider category 6 hurricanes

For more than 50 years, the National Hurricane Center has used the Saffir-Simpson Windscale to communicate the risk of property damage; it labels a hurricane on a scale from Category 1 (wind speeds between 74 -- 95 mph) to Category 5 (wind speeds of 158 mph or greater).

But as increasing ocean temperatures contribute to ever more intense and destructive hurricanes, climate scientists Michael Wehner of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and James Kossin of the First Street Foundation wondered whether the open-ended Category 5 is sufficient to communicate the risk of hurricane damage in a warming climate.

So they investigated and detailed their extensive research in a new article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), where they also introduce a hypothetical Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which would encompass storms with wind speeds greater than 192 mph.

"Our motivation is to reconsider how the open-endedness of the Saffir-Simpson Scale can lead to underestimation of risk, and, in particular, how this underestimation becomes increasingly problematic in a warming world," said Wehner, who has spent his career studying the behavior of extreme weather events in a changing climate and to what extent human influence has contributed to individual events.

According to Wehner, anthropogenic global warming has significantly increased surface ocean and tropospheric air temperatures in regions where hurricanes, tropical cyclones, and typhoons form and propagate, providing additional heat energy for storm intensification.

When the team performed a historical data analysis of hurricanes from 1980 to 2021, they found five storms that would have been classified as Category 6, and all of them occurred in the last nine years of record.

They determined a hypothetical upper bound for Category 5 hurricanes by looking at the expanding range of wind speeds between the lower-category storms.

Hurricanes, tropical storms, and typhoons are essentially the same weather phenomenon; their name difference is purely geographical: storms in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Oceans are called hurricanes, events in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are called typhoons, and occurrences in the South Pacific and Indian Oceans are called tropical cyclones.

In addition to studying the past, the researchers analyzed simulations to explore how warming climates would impact hurricane intensification.

Their models showed that with two degrees Celsius of global warming above pre-industrial levels, the risk of Category 6 storms increases by up to 50% near the Philippines and doubles in the Gulf of Mexico and that the highest risk of these storms is in Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and the Gulf of Mexico.

"Even under the relatively low global warming targets of the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global warming to just 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures by the end of this century, the increased chances of Category 6 storms are substantial in these simulations," said Wehner.

Read more at Science Daily

Jan 19, 2024

Butterflies could lose spots as climate warms

Female Meadow Brown butterflies have fewer spots if they develop in warmer weather -- so climate change could make them less spotty, new research shows.

University of Exeter scientists found females that developed at 11°C had six spots on average, while those developing 15°C had just three.

The findings challenge long-held scientific views about why these butterflies have varying numbers of spots.

"Meadow Browns always have large 'eyespots' on their forewings, probably for startling predators," said Professor Richard ffrench-Constant, from the Centre for Ecology and Conservation on Exeter's Penryn Campus in Cornwall.

"They also have smaller spots on their hindwings, probably useful for camouflage when the butterfly is at rest.

"Our findings show that fewer of these hindwing spots appear when females experience higher temperatures during their pupal stage (in a chrysalis before emerging as a butterfly).

"This suggests the butterflies adapt their camouflage based on the conditions. For example, with fewer spots they may be harder to spot on dry, brown grass that would be more common in hot weather.

"We did not observe such a strong effect in males, possibly because their spots are important for sexual selection (attracting females)."

Since the classic work of biologist EB Ford, eyespot variation in the Meadow Brown butterfly has been used as an example of "genetic polymorphism" (the co-existence of multiple genetic forms in a single population).

However, the new study shows the eyespot variation is caused by thermal plasticity (the ability to react to changing temperatures).

"This is a family story for me, as my father collected butterflies for EB Ford here in Cornwall," Professor ffrench-Constant said.

"In the new study, we looked at current Cornish populations -- collecting males and females from the same field every day throughout the flight season -- and historical collections from Eton and Buckingham."

The researchers predict that spotting will decrease year on year as our climate warms.

Professor ffrench-Constant added: "This is an unexpected consequence of climate change. We tend to think about species moving north, rather than changing appearance."

Read more at Science Daily

May 29, 2023

Global flash droughts expected to increase in a warming climate

The rapid development of unexpected drought, called flash drought, can severely impact agricultural and ecological systems with ripple effects that extend even further. Researchers at the University of Oklahoma are assessing how our warming climate will affect the frequency of flash droughts and the risk to croplands globally.

Jordan Christian, a postdoctoral researcher, is the lead author of the study, "Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a warming climate," published today in Nature Communications Earth and Environment.

"In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations," Christian said. "We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage."

Radiative forcing describes the imbalance of radiation where more radiation enters Earth's atmosphere than leaves it. Like burning fossil fuels, these activities are among the most significant contributors to climate warming. The changing climate is expected to increase severe weather events from storms, flash flooding, flash droughts and more.

"Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America and Europe," Christian said.

"CMIP6 models projected a 1.5 times increase in the annual risk of flash droughts over croplands across North America by 2100, from the 2015 baseline of a 32% yearly risk in 2015 to 49% in 2100, while Europe is expected to have the largest increase in the most extreme emissions scenario (32% to 53%), a 1.7 times increase in annual risk," he said.

Read more at Science Daily

Mar 25, 2022

Rapid glacial advance reconstructed during the time of Norse occupation in Greenland

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second largest ice body in the world, and it has the potential to contribute significantly to global sea-level rise in a warming global climate. Understanding the long-term record of the Greenland Ice Sheet, including both records of glacial advance and retreat, is critical in validating approaches that model future ice-sheet scenarios. However, this reconstruction can be extremely challenging. A new study published Thursday in the journal Geology reconstructed the advance of one of the largest tidewater glaciers in Greenland to provide a better understanding of long-term glacial dynamics.

"In the news, we're very used to hearing about glacial retreat, and that's because in a warming climate scenario -- which is what we're in at the moment -- we generally document ice masses retreating. However, we also want to understand how glaciers react if there is a climate cooling and subsequent advance. To do this, we need to reconstruct glacier geometry from the past," said Danni Pearce, co-lead author of the study.

An interdisciplinary team of researchers studied the advance of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS) -- the largest tidewater glacier in southwest Greenland -- during a period of cooling when the Norse had settlements in Greenland. Differing from glaciers that are strictly on land, tidewater glaciers extend and flow all the way to the ocean or a sea, where they can then calve and break up into icebergs.

Reconstructing the advance of glaciers can be exceptionally difficult, because the glacier typically destroys or reworks everything in its path as it advances forward. The research team undertook multiple field seasons in Greenland, traveling on foot to remote sites -- many of which hadn't been visited since the 1930s -- to try and uncover the record of KNS advance.

"When we went out into the field, we had absolutely no idea whether the evidence would be there or not, so I was incredibly nervous. Though we did a huge amount of planning beforehand, until you go out into the field you don't know what you're going to find," said James Lea, the other co-lead author of the study.

By traveling on foot, the research team was able to more closely examine and explore sites that otherwise may have been missed if traveling by helicopter. The team's planning paid off, and the sedimentary sequences they studied and sampled held the clues they were looking for to date and track the advance of the glacier.

The research team found that during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries CE, KNS advanced at least 15 km, at a rate of ~115 m/yr. This rate of advance is comparable to modern rates of glacial retreat observed over the past ~200 years, indicating that when climate is cooler glaciers can advance equally as fast as they are currently retreating. The glacier reached its maximum extent by 1761 CE during the Little Ice Age, culminating in a total advance of ~20 km. Since then, KNS has retreated ~23 km to its present position.

The period when the glacier was advancing coincided with when the Norse were present in Greenland. Prior to its maximum extent during the Little Ice Age, the researchers found that KNS advanced to a location within only 5 km of a Norse farmstead.

"Even though KNS was rapidly coming down the fjord, it did not seem to affect the Norse, which we found really unusual," said Pearce. "So the team started to think about the surrounding environment and the amount of iceberg production in the fjord during that time. At the moment, the fjord is completely filled with icebergs, making boat access challenging, and we know from historical record that it has been like this for the last 200 years while the glacier has been retreating. However, for KNS to advance at 115 m/yr, it needed to hang onto its ice and could not have been producing a lot of icebergs. So we actually think that the fjord would have looked very different with few icebergs, which allowed the Norse far more easy access to this site for farming, hunting, and fishing."

In the 1930s, archaeologists who visited the site hypothesized that conditions in the fjord must have been different from the present day in order for the Norse to have occupied the site, and this current research study provides data to support these long-held ideas.

"So we have this counterintuitive notion that climate cooling and glacier advance might have actually helped the Norse in this specific circumstance and allowed them to navigate more of the fjord more easily," said Lea.

The Norse left Greenland during the fifteenth century CE, and these results are consistent with the idea that a cooling climate was likely not the cause of their exodus; rather, a combination of economic factors likely led the Norse to abandon Greenland.

The results from this research reconstructing rapid glacial advance are also shown to be consistent with the ways ice sheet models work, which brings confidence to the projections from these models. Having accurate models and projections are crucial in understanding and preparing for future scenarios of continued retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet and associated sea-level rise.

"Melt from Greenland not only impacts sea-level change but also the ecology around the ice sheets, fisheries, the biological productivity of the oceans -- how much algae is growing. And also because the types of glaciers we're looking at produce icebergs these can cause hazards to shipping and trade, especially if the Northwest Passage opens up as it is expected to," said James Lea.

Read more at Science Daily