Arctic could become 'ice-free' within a decade

The Arctic could see summer days with practically no sea ice as early as the next couple of years, according to a new study out of the University of Colorado Boulder.

The findings, published March 5 in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, suggest that the first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur over 10 years earlier than previous projections, which focused on when the region would be ice-free for a month or more. The trend remains consistent under all future emission scenarios.

By mid-century, the Arctic is likely to see an entire month without floating ice during September, when the region's sea ice coverage is at its minimum. At the end of the century, the ice-free season could last several months a year, depending on future emissions scenarios. For example, under a high-emissions, or business-as-usual, scenario, the planet's northernmost region could become consistently ice-free even in some winter months.

For scientists, an ice-free Arctic doesn't mean there would be zero ice in the water.

Instead, researchers say the Arctic is ice-free when the ocean has less than 1 million square kilometers (386,000 square miles) of ice. The threshold represents less than 20% of what the region's seasonal minimum ice cover was in the 1980s. In recent years, the Arctic Ocean had around 3.3 million square kilometers of sea ice area at its minimum in September.

Alexandra Jahn, associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and fellow at CU Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, set out to analyze existing literature on sea ice projections. She and her collaborators also analyzed sea ice coverage data from computational climate models to assess how the Arctic might change daily in the future.

They found that the first day when sea ice coverage dips below the 1-square-kilometer threshold would occur on average four years earlier than the monthly averages, but could occur up to 18 years earlier.

"When it comes to communicating what scientists expect to happen in the Arctic, it is important to predict when we might observe the first ice-free conditions in the Arctic, which will show up in the daily satellite data," Jahn said.

The team projected the Arctic Ocean could become ice-free for the first time on a late August or early September day between the 2020s to 2030s under all emissions scenarios.

Jahn said greenhouse gas emissions are the main contributors to sea ice loss. A decrease in snow and ice cover increases the amount of heat from sunlight absorbed by the ocean, exacerbating ice melt and warming in the Arctic.

Sea ice declines have significant impacts on Arctic animals that rely on sea ice for survival, including seals and polar bears. In addition, as the ocean warms up, researchers are concerned that non-native fish could move into the Arctic Ocean. The impact of these invasive species on local ecosystems remains unclear.

Sea ice loss also poses a risk to the communities living near the coastal region. Sea ice plays a significant role in buffering the impacts of ocean waves on the coastal land, Jahn said. As sea ice retreats, ocean waves would get bigger, causing coastal erosion.

While an ice-free Arctic is inevitable, Jahn said future emissions levels will still determine how often the conditions occur. Under an intermediate emissions scenario, a path the current society is on, the Arctic might become ice-free only during late summer and early fall from August to October. But under the highest emissions scenario, the Arctic could be ice-free for up to nine months by late this century.

"This would transform the Arctic into a completely different environment, from a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic. So even if ice-free conditions are unavoidable, we still need to keep our emissions as low as possible to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions," Jahn said.

The good news: Arctic sea ice is resilient and can return quickly if the atmosphere cools down.

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New research explains 'Atlantification' of the Arctic Ocean

New research by an international team of scientists explains what's behind a stalled trend in Arctic Ocean sea ice loss since 2007. The findings indicate that stronger declines in sea ice will occur when an atmospheric feature known as the Arctic dipole reverses itself in its recurring cycle.

The many environmental responses to the Arctic dipole are described in a paper published online today in the journal Science. This analysis helps explain how North Atlantic water influences Arctic Ocean climate. Scientists call it Atlantification.

The research is led by professor Igor Polyakov of the University of Alaska Fairbanks College of Natural Science and Mathematics. He is also affiliated with the International Arctic Research Center at UAF.

Co-authors include Andrey V. Pnyushkov, research assistant professor at the International Arctic Research Center; Uma S. Bhatt, atmospheric sciences professor at the UAF Geophysical Institute and UAF College of Natural Science and Mathematics; and researchers from Massachusetts, Washington state, Norway, and Germany.

"This is a multidisciplinary view on what's going on in the Arctic and beyond," Polyakov said of the new research. "Our analysis covered the atmosphere, ocean, ice, changing continents and changing biology in response to climate change."

A wealth of data, including direct instrumental observations, reanalysis products and satellite information going back several decades, shows that the Arctic dipole alternates in an approximately 15-year cycle and that the system is probably at the end of the present regime.

In the Arctic dipole's present "positive" regime, which scientists say has been in place since 2007, high pressure is centered over the Canadian sector of the Arctic and produces clockwise winds. Low pressure is centered over the Siberian Arctic and features counterclockwise winds.

This wind pattern drives upper ocean currents, with year-round effects on regional air temperatures, atmosphere-ice-ocean heat exchanges, sea-ice drift and exports, and ecological consequences.

The authors write that, "Water exchanges between the Nordic seas and the Arctic Ocean are critically important for the state of the Arctic climate system" and that sea ice decline is "a true indicator of climate change."

In analyzing oceanic responses to the wind pattern since 2007, the researchers found decreased flow from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait east of Greenland, along with increased Atlantic flow into the Barents Sea, located north of Norway and western Russia.

The new research refers to these alternating changes in the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea as a "switchgear mechanism" caused by the Arctic dipole regimes.

The researchers also found that counterclockwise winds from the low-pressure region under the current positive Arctic dipole regime drive freshwater from Siberian rivers into the Canadian sector of the Arctic Ocean.

This westward movement of freshwater from 2007 to 2021 helped slow the overall loss of sea ice in the Arctic compared to 1992 through 2006. The freshwater layer's depth increased, making it too thick and stable to mix with the heavier saltwater below. The thick layer of freshwater prevents the warmer saltwater from melting sea ice from the bottom.

The authors write that the switchgear mechanism regulating inflows of sub-Arctic waters has "profound" impacts on marine life. It can lead to potentially more suitable living conditions for sub-Arctic boreal species near the eastern part of the Eurasian Basin, relative to its western part.

"We are beyond the peak of the currently positive Arctic dipole regime, and at any moment it could switch back again," Polyakov said. "This could have significant climatological repercussions, including a potentially faster pace of sea-ice loss across the entire Arctic and sub-Arctic climate systems."

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Loss of Antarctic sea ice causes catastrophic breeding failure for emperor penguins

Emperor penguin colonies experienced unprecedented breeding failure in a region of Antarctica where there was total sea ice loss in 2022. The discovery supports predictions that over 90% of emperor penguin colonies will be quasi-extinct by the end of the century, based on current global warming trends.

In a new study published today in Communications Earth & Environment, researchers from British Antarctic Survey discussed the high probability that no chicks had survived from four of the five known emperor penguin colonies in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea. The scientists examined satellite images that showed the loss of sea ice at breeding sites, well before chicks would have developed waterproof feathers.

Emperor penguins are dependent on stable sea ice that is firmly attached to the shore ('land-fast' ice) for the majority of the year, from April through to January. Once they arrive at their chosen breeding site, penguins lay eggs in Antarctic winter from May to June. Eggs hatch after 65 days, but chicks do not fledge until summer, between December and January.

At the beginning of December 2022, the Antarctic sea ice extent had matched the previous all-time low set in 2021. The most extreme loss was seen in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea region, west of the Antarctic Peninsula where there was a 100% loss of sea ice in November 2022.

Lead author of the study, Dr Peter Fretwell, said:

"We have never seen emperor penguins fail to breed, at this scale, in a single season. The loss of sea ice in this region during the Antarctic summer made it very unlikely that displaced chicks would survive.

We know that emperor penguins are highly vulnerable in a warming climate -- and current scientific evidence suggests that extreme sea ice loss events like this will become more frequent and widespread.

Since 2016, Antarctica has seen the four years with the lowest sea ice extents in the 45-year satellite record, with the two lowest years in 2021/22 and 2022/23. Between 2018 and 2022, 30% of the 62 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica were affected by partial or total sea ice loss. Although it is difficult to immediately link specific extreme seasons to climate change, a longer-term decline in sea ice extent is expected from the current generation of climate models.

Understanding emperor penguin colonies

Emperor penguins have previously responded to incidents of sea ice loss by moving to more stable sites the following year. However, scientists say that this strategy won't work if sea ice habitat across an entire region is affected.

Emperor penguin populations have never been subject to large scale hunting, habitat loss, overfishing or other local anthropogenic interactions in the modern era. Unusually for a vertebrate species, climate change is considered the only major factor influencing their long-term population change. Recent efforts to predict emperor penguin population trends from forecasts of sea ice loss have painted a bleak picture, showing that if present rates of warming persist, over 90% of colonies will be quasi-extinct by the end of this century.

The five colonies of penguins studied were all discovered in the last 14 years using satellite imagery -- Rothschild Island, Verdi Inlet, Smyley Island, Bryan Peninsula and Pfrogner Point. All five colonies had been shown to return to the same location each year to breed, with only one previous instance of breeding failure at Bryan Peninsula in 2010.

Scientists now routinely use satellite imagery to discover and monitor emperor penguin colonies, as the brown stains of the birds' guano stands out clearly against the stark white of ice and snow. The team used images from the European Commission's Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite mission, which has continuously monitored the area in Antarctica since 2018.

The impact of Antarctic sea ice loss

Over the past seven years, sea ice around Antarctica has decreased significantly. By the end of December 2022, sea ice extent was the lowest experienced in the 45-year satellite record. In the Bellingshausen Sea, the home of the penguin colonies in this study, sea ice didn't start to re-form until late April 2023.

Since then, the deviation from the norm has intensified: as of 20 August 2023 the sea ice extent was 2.2 million km2 lower than the 1981-2022 median (17.9 million km2) significantly surpassing the record winter low on 20 August 2022 of 17.1 million km2. This missing area is larger than the size of Greenland, or around ten times the size of the United Kingdom.

Dr Caroline Holmes, a polar climate scientist at BAS, said:

"Right now, in August 2023, the sea ice extent in Antarctica is still far below all previous records for this time of year. In this period where oceans are freezing up, we're seeing areas that are still, remarkably, largely ice-free.

Year-to-year changes in sea ice extent are linked to natural atmospheric patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the strength of the southern hemisphere jet stream, and regional low-pressure systems.

We'll need years of targeted observations and modelling to know precisely how much the current conditions are being influenced by these phenomena and by natural ocean variability. However, the recent years of tumbling sea ice records and warming of the subsurface Southern Ocean point strongly to human-induced global warming exacerbating these extremes."

Climate models show a decline in Antarctic sea ice both under present and forecast human carbon dioxide emissions.

Dr Jeremy Wilkinson, a sea ice physicist at BAS, commented:

"This paper dramatically reveals the connection between sea ice loss and ecosystem annihilation. Climate change is melting sea ice at an alarming rate. It is likely to be absent from the Arctic in the 2030s -- and in the Antarctic, the four lowest sea ice extents recorded have been since 2016.

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