Three proposals from researchers to meet EU climate goals

The EU countries have decided that the EU is to be climate neutral by 2050. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions must have been reduced by at least 55% compared to 1990. To meet this target, continued vigorous efforts are needed to reduce emissions, but that alone will not be enough. This is the conclusion of seven researchers from Sweden and Germany in an article in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. One of them is Mathias Fridahl, associate professor at the Department of Thematic Studies -- Environmental Change at Linköping University, Sweden.

"We have painted humanity into a corner. It's no longer possible to solve the climate crisis simply by reducing emissions. We also need to clean the atmosphere of carbon dioxide," says Mathias Fridahl.

The problem is that there are currently no incentives for companies and countries to invest in new technologies to remove carbon dioxide.

That is why a change in the EU's climate policy is needed. "There are many technologies that are quite well developed, but which aren't economically viable," says Mathias Fridahl.

He and his colleagues have three proposals that they believe could soon make a difference.

Anyone contributing to the removal of carbon dioxide should be able to get paid for it under the EU emissions trading scheme.

This should only apply to methods that have a long life span, that is, capture linked to the storage of carbon dioxide for thousands of years.

To get the trading scheme up and running, the researchers propose that the EU set up a central bank for carbon dioxide.

The bank would give investors a good price for the carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere.

In order to maintain the drive to continue reducing emissions at the same time, the proposal is that the bank strongly regulates how removal may be used to compensate for continued emissions.

The bank's financial muscle could come from revenues from carbon tariffs on goods from outside the Union.

To stimulate other measures with a shorter life span, the researchers propose an extension of the EU's land use regulation.

This sets out the measures to remove carbon dioxide that member states are allowed to be credited with when reporting their climate emissions.

Today, there is a limited amount of removal methods in forestry and agriculture.

The researchers contend that if the regulation were extended to more measures, it would encourage countries to invest resources in carbon removal.

The researchers also want the EU to identify which emissions will be very difficult or impossible to do anything about.

Greater clarity would reduce the risk of companies and member states postponing measures in the hope that their emissions will belong to the group that is difficult to tackle.

This would stimulate innovation and efforts to reduce emissions in parallel with initiatives to remove carbon dioxide.

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Without fully implementing net-zero pledges, the world will miss climate goals

Without more legally binding and well-planned net-zero policies, the world is highly likely to miss key climate targets.

In the new study, led by Imperial College London and published today in Science, researchers ranked 90% of global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions pledges as providing low confidence in their full implementation.

The researchers recommend nations make their targets legally binding and back them up with long-term plans and short-term implementation policies to increase the likelihood of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.

Lead researcher Professor Joeri Rogelj, director of research for the Grantham Institute at Imperial, said: "Climate policy is moving from setting ambitious targets to implementing them. However, our analysis shows most countries do not provide high confidence that they will deliver on their commitments. The world is still on a high-risk climate track, and we are far from delivering a safe climate future."

Assigning confidence

Climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement include keeping temperature rises well below 2°C above the average temperature before the industrial revolution and ideally below 1.5°C. The main way to achieve this is the reach 'net-zero' greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, where any remaining emissions are effectively offset.

Most countries have set net-zero goals and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) -- non-binding national plans proposing climate actions. Taking these plans at face value, and assuming they will all be fully implemented, gives the world a chance of keeping warming to 1.5-2 degrees C. But taking current policies only, with no implementation of net-zero pledges, means models predict temperature rises could be as much as 2.5-3 degrees C by 2100, with warming still increasing.

To reduce the uncertainty in which of these scenarios is likely to happen, the team, including researchers from the UK, Austria, USA, Netherlands, Germany, and Brazil, assigned a 'confidence' to each net-zero policy. They assessed 35 net zero targets, covering every country with more than 0.1% of current global greenhouse gas emissions.

The confidence assessment was based on three policy characteristics: whether the policy was legally binding, whether there was a credible policy plan guiding implementation, and whether short-term plans would already put emissions on a downward path over the next decade.

Based on this, policies were given 'higher', 'lower' or 'much lower' confidence of being fully implemented. Some regions scored highly, including the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand, but around 90% scored 'lower' or 'much lower' confidence, including China and the US, which together account for more than 35% of current emissions.

Modelling emissions

From this assessment, the team modelled five scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions and resulting temperatures. These were: considering only current policies (the most conservative scenario); only adding in policies that have a high confidence of being implemented; adding policies with high and low confidence; adding all policies regardless of confidence as if they are implemented; and a scenario where all policies are fully implemented and all NDCs are met (the most forgiving scenario).

The most conservative scenario had the largest uncertainty, with a range of 1.7-3°C and a median estimate of 2.6°C. The most optimistic scenario has a range of 1.6-2.1, with a median estimate of 1.7°C. This might suggest that, if all net-zero policies are fully implemented, the Paris Agreement goals are withing reach. However, with so many policies ranked in the low-confidence end of the scale, this would be wishful thinking in absence of further efforts.

Co-author Taryn Fransen, from the World Resources Institute in Washington DC, and the Energy and Resources Group at the University of California-Berkeley, said: "Climate change targets are by their nature ambitious -- there's no point in setting a target for a foregone conclusion. But implementation must follow."

Catalysing action

Only twelve out of 35 net zero policies are currently legally binding, and the researchers say increasing this number would help ensure the policies survive long-term and catalyse action. Countries also need clear implementation pathways for different sectors, outlining exactly what changes are needed and where the responsibility lies.

Co-author Dr Robin Lamboll, from the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial, said: "Making targets legally binding is crucial to ensure long-term plans are adopted. We need to see concrete legislation in order to trust that action will follow from promises."

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