Biofluorescent fish discovered in the Arctic

For the first time, scientists have documented biofluorescence in an Arctic fish species. The study, led by researchers at the American Museum of Natural History who spent hours in the icy waters off of Greenland where the red-and-green-glowing snailfish was found, is published today in the American Museum Novitates.

"Overall, we found marine fluorescence to be quite rare in the Arctic, in both invertebrate and vertebrate lineages," said John Sparks, a curator in the American Museum of Natural History's Department of Ichthyology and one of the authors of the study. "So we were surprised to find these juvenile snailfish brightly fluorescing in not just one, but two different colors, which is very unusual in a single species."

In 2014, Sparks and colleague David Gruber, a research associate at the Museum and a biology professor at Baruch College, identified more than 180 new species of fishes that biofluoresce, the ability to convert blue wavelengths into green, red, or yellow light. This ability, which could be used for behaviors including communication and mating in some species, is now well documented in tropical fishes that live in regions where there is an even amount of daylight year-round. But in the Arctic, where days can be incredibly long or incredibly short, researchers were interested in seeing firsthand how prolonged periods of darkness affected fishes' ability to biofluoresce.

"The light regime at the poles provides for winter months of near total darkness, where biofluorescence would not be functional," Gruber said. "But given the summer months with the midnight Sun, we hypothesized that it could be present."

In 2019, as part of a Constantine. S. Niarchos Expedition, Sparks and Gruber headed to the iceberg habitats off the coast of Eastern Greenland to test their theory. In addition to finding very little marine fluorescence, they observed that groups of fishes that glow brightly in tropical and temperate regions -- for example, scorpionfishes and flatfishes -- did not fluoresce in the cold waters. But there was an exception: two juvenile specimens of variegated snailfish (Liparis gibbus), the first species shown to biofluoresce in the Arctic. The species glows in both green and red, a rare example of multiple fluorescent colors emitted from a single organism. In addition, the authors report red biofluorescence from an adult kelp snailfish (L. tunicatus) collected in the Bering Strait off of Little Diomede Island, Alaska, which was collected and scanned by colleagues at NOAA Fisheries Service.

In the seven years since Sparks and Gruber first reported widespread biofluorescence in fishes, it has been found in a number of new lineages, including mammals like platypuses, opossums, flying squirrels, springhares, and even marine turtles. But its exact function remains a mystery.

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Muscle cramp? Drink electrolytes, not water

 If you reach for water when a muscle cramp strikes, you might want to think again. New research from Edith Cowan University (ECU) has revealed drinking electrolytes instead of pure water can help prevent muscle cramps.

The study, published in the Journal of the International Society of Sports Nutrition, found that people who drank electrolyte enhanced water during and after exercise were less susceptible to muscle cramps than those who drank pure water.

Muscle cramps are a common painful condition affecting many people, including around 39 per cent of marathon runners, 52 per cent of rugby players and 60 per cent of cyclists.

Dilution solution

Lead researcher Professor Ken Nosaka, from ECU's School of Medical and Health Sciences, said the study builds on the evidence that a lack of electrolytes contributes to muscle cramps, not dehydration.

"Many people think dehydration causes muscle cramps and will drink pure water while exercising to prevent cramping," he said.

"We found that people who solely drink plain water before and after exercise could in fact be making them more prone to cramps.

"This is likely because pure water dilutes the electrolyte concentration in our bodies and doesn't replace what is lost during sweating."

When cramp strikes

Professor Nosaka began researching the causes of muscle cramps after regularly suffering from them while playing tennis.

The study involved 10 men who ran on a downhill treadmill in a hot (35ºC) room for 40 to 60 minutes to lose 1.5 to 2 per cent of their body weight through sweat in two conditions.

They drank plain water during and after exercise for one condition and took a water solution containing electrolytes in the other condition.

The participants were given an electrical stimulation on their calves to induce muscle cramp. The lower the frequency of the electrical stimulation required, the more the participant is prone to muscle cramp.

"We found that the electrical frequency required to induce cramp increased when people drank the electrolyte water, but decreased when they consumed plain water," said Professor Nosaka.

"This indicates that muscles become more prone to cramp by drinking plain water, but more immune to muscle cramp by drinking the electrolyte water."

Not all water is equal

Electrolytes are minerals including sodium, potassium, magnesium and chloride. They are essential for muscle health and help the body to absorb water.

Oral rehydration solutions contain electrolytes in specific proportions and can be made with water, salt and sugar. They are commonly found in supermarkets and pharmacies.

Professor Nosaka said electrolytes have many benefits for both athletes and the general population.

"Electrolytes are vital to good health -- they help the body to absorb water more effectively than plain water and replace essential minerals lost through sweat or illness," he said.

"People should consider drinking oral rehydration fluids instead of plain water during moderate to intense exercise, when it's very hot or when you are sick from diarrhoea or vomiting."

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Extinct Caribbean bird's closest relatives hail from Africa, South Pacific

 In a genetic surprise, ancient DNA shows the closest family members of an extinct bird known as the Haitian cave-rail are not in the Americas, but Africa and the South Pacific, uncovering an unexpected link between Caribbean bird life and the Old World.

Like many animals unique to the Caribbean, cave-rails became extinct soon after people settled the islands. The last of three known West Indian species of cave-rails -- flightless, chicken-sized birds -- vanished within the past 1,000 years. Florida Museum of Natural History researchers sought to resolve the group's long-debated ancestry by analyzing DNA from a fossil toe bone of the Haitian cave-rail, Nesotrochis steganinos. But they were unprepared for the results: The genus Nesotrochis is most closely related to the flufftails, flying birds that live in sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar and New Guinea, and the adzebills, large, extinct, flightless birds native to New Zealand.

The study presents the first example of a Caribbean bird whose closest relatives live in the Old World, showcasing the power of ancient DNA to reveal a history erased by humans.

The discovery was "just mind-blowing," said study lead author Jessica Oswald, who began the project as a postdoctoral researcher at the Florida Museum.

"If this study had not happened, we might still be under the assumption that the closest relatives of most things in the Caribbean are on the mainland in the Americas," said Oswald, now a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Nevada, Reno and a Florida Museum research affiliate. "This gives us an understanding of the region's biodiversity that would otherwise be obscured."

Many animals evolved unusual forms on islands, often making it difficult to classify extinct species based on their physical characteristics alone. But advancements in extracting viable DNA from fossils now enables scientists like Oswald to answer longstanding questions with ancient genetic evidence. Oswald described her work as similar to a forensic investigation, tracing the evolutionary backstory of extinct animals by piecing together fragmented, degraded genetic material.

"Understanding where all of these extinct species fit into a larger family tree or evolutionary history gives us insight into what a place looked like before people arrived," she said. "That's why my job is so fun. It's always this whodunit."

Oswald was just starting her ancient DNA work at the Florida Museum when David Steadman, curator of ornithology and study co-author, suggested the Haitian cave-rail as a good candidate for analysis.

Cave-rails share physical characteristics with several types of modern birds, and scientists have conjectured for decades whether they are most closely related to wood rails, coots or swamphens -- birds that all belong to the rail family, part of a larger group known as the Gruiformes. Oswald and Steadman hoped that studying cave-rail DNA would clarify "what the heck this thing is," Oswald said.

When preliminary results indicated the species had a trans-Atlantic connection, Steadman, who has worked in the Caribbean for more than 40 years, was skeptical.

The genetics also showed that the cave-rail isn't a rail at all: While flufftails and adzebills are also members of the Gruiformes, they are in separate families from rails.

"It just didn't seem logical that you'd have to go across the Atlantic to find the closest relative," Steadman said. "But the fact that people had a hard time classifying where Nesotrochis was within the rails -- in hindsight, maybe that should have been a clue. Now I have a much more open mind."

One reason the cave-rail was so difficult to classify is that when birds lose the ability to fly, they often converge on a similar body plan, Steadman said. Flightlessness is a common adaptation in island birds, which face far fewer predators in the absence of humans and invasive species such as dogs, cats, rats and pigs.

"You don't have to outfly or outrun predators, so your flying and running abilities become reduced," Steadman said. "Because island birds spend less energy avoiding predators, they also tend to have a lower metabolic rate and nest on the ground. It's no longer life in the fast lane. They're essentially living in a Corona commercial."

While sheltered from the mass extinctions that swept the mainland, cave-rails were helpless once people touched foot on the islands, having lost their defenses and cautiousness.

"Being flightless and plump was not a great strategy during human colonization of the Caribbean," said study co-author Robert Guralnick, Florida Museum curator of biodiversity informatics.

How did cave-rails get to the Caribbean in the first place? Monkeys and capybara-like rodents journeyed from Africa to the New World about 25-36 million years ago, likely by rafting, and cave-rails may also have migrated during that timespan, Steadman said. He and Oswald envision two probable scenarios: The ancestors of cave-rails either made a long-distance flight across an Atlantic Ocean that was not much narrower than today, or the group was once more widespread across the continents, with more relatives remaining to be discovered in the fossil record.

Other researchers have recently published findings that corroborate the story told by cave-rail DNA: A study of foot features suggested Nesotrochis could be more closely related to flufftails than rails, and other research showed that adzebills are close relatives of the flufftails. Like cave-rails, adzebills are also an example of a flightless island bird extinguished by human hunters.

"Humans have meddled so much in the region and caused so many extinctions, we need ancient DNA to help us sort out what's related to what," Oswald said.

The findings also underscore the value of museum collections, Steadman said. The toe bone Oswald used in her analysis was collected in 1983 by Charles Woods, then the Florida Museum's curator of mammals. At that time, "nobody was thinking about ancient DNA," Steadman said. "It shows the beauty of keeping things well curated in a museum."

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Substantially higher burden of COVID-19 compared to flu, new research shows

 In a paper published in the Journal of General Internal Medicine, physician-researchers at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) assessed the relative impact of COVID-19 on patients hospitalized with the viral infection in March and April 2020, versus patients hospitalized with influenza during the last five flu seasons at the medical center. Overall, the team demonstrated that COVID-19 cases resulted in significantly more weekly hospitalizations, more use of mechanical ventilation and higher mortality rates than influenza.

COVID-19 and influenza are both contagious respiratory viral diseases that can lead to pneumonia and acute respiratory failure in severe cases. However, detailed comparison of the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 and those of influenza are lacking.

"COVID-19 has been compared to influenza both by health care professionals and the lay public, but there's really limited detailed objective data available for comparing and contrasting the impact of these two diseases on patients and hospitals," said corresponding author Michael Donnino, MD, Critical Care and Emergency Medicine physician at BIDMC. "We compared patients admitted to BIDMC with COVID-19 in spring 2020 to patients admitted to BIDMC with influenza during the last five flu seasons. We found that COVID-19 causes more severe disease and is more lethal than influenza."

Donnino and colleagues included a total of 1,634 hospitalized patients in their study, 582 of whom had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and 1,052 of whom had confirmed influenza. The team found that, on average, 210 patients were admitted to BIDMC during each eight-month flu season, compared to the 582 patients with COVID-19 admitted in March and April 2020. While 174 patients with COVID-19 (or 30 percent) received mechanical ventilation during the two-month period, just 84 patients with influenza (or 8 percent) were placed on ventilation over all five seasons of influenza. Likewise, the proportion of patients who died was much higher for COVID-19 than for influenza; 20 percent of admitted patients with COVID-19 died in the two-month period, compared to three percent of patients with influenza over five seasons.

Further analysis revealed that hospitalized patients with COVID-19 tended to be younger than those hospitalized with influenza. Among patients requiring mechanical ventilation, patients with COVID-19 were on ventilation much longer -- a median duration of two weeks -- compared to just over three days for patients with influenza. Moreover, among patients requiring mechanical ventilation, patients with COVID-19 were far less likely to have had pre-existing medical conditions.

"Our data illustrate that 98 percent of deaths of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were directly or indirectly related to their COVID-19 illness, illustrating that patients did not die with COVID but rather from COVID pneumonia or a complication," said Donnino.

The authors note that the stringent social distancing guidance in effect last spring may have impacted these findings by limiting the incidence and lethality of COVID-19 toward the end of April 2020. Conversely, some treatment practices have evolved over the course of the pandemic, potentially improving outcomes for patients with COVID-19.

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How do humpback whales rest?

An international research collaboration has used an omnidirectional camera attached to humpback whale to reveal how these creatures rest underwater. These findings demonstrate how wide-angle lens cameras can be useful tools for illuminating the ecology of difficult-to-observe animals in detail.

The research group consisted of Assistant Professor Takashi Iwata of Kobe University's Graduate School of Maritime Sciences, Researcher Martin Biuw of the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research, Assistant Professor Kagari Aoki and Professor Katsufumi Sato of the Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, and Professor Patrick Miller of the University of St. Andrews.

These research results were published online in Behavioural Processes on February 25, 2021.

Main Points
 

• The researchers attached an omnidirectional (360°) camera to a humpback whale and discovered that these animals rest while drifting underwater. Whales can rest either on the surface or underwater, and it is believed that they choose which of these different environments to rest in depending on the situation.
• The omnidirectional camera recorded a wide range of information on the environment surrounding the tagged whale, revealing that humpback whales rest in groups rather than on their own.
• These results have demonstrated that animal-borne omnidirectional cameras are useful for learning more about animals that are difficult to observe.

Research Background

It is difficult to observe the ecology of marine animals directly as they spend the majority of their lives underwater. However, studies on the ecology of difficult-to-observe marine animals have been recently conducted using a method called bio-logging. This method involves attaching a camera to an animal and recording environmental information related to their behavior and surroundings. Various kinds of data can be recorded and measured, and this information can be used to understand aspects such as animal behavior and diving physiology. Such data includes depth, swimming speed, acceleration (which can be used to understand the animal's posture and detailed movements), vocalizations, heart rate and GPS (Global Positioning System) location data.

Cameras in particular are a powerful tool as they enable researchers to view the individual animal's surroundings, which in turn helps them to understand the animal's behavior. However, the camera's limited field of view has been an issue with animal-borne cameras up until now. For example, research using a camera attached to a humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) revealed that the whale would quickly move away from foraging sites if a competitor was present. However, the competitor was not visible due to the limited scope of the camera, therefore its presence was merely assumed. A camera with a wide-angle lens is therefore necessary to film the animal's entire surroundings.

This research focused on the humpback whale, a species of baleen whale that is found in oceans around the globe. Using bio-logging, researchers have learned more about humpback whales' foraging habits, however little is known about their resting behaviors. Foraging events can be identified from the recorded depth, swimming speed and acceleration (movement) of the whale that are characteristic signs that it is chasing prey. However, researchers have not identified the characteristic signs of resting, and it is not understood what the differences are between resting and swimming slowly. Information about an animal's resting behavior is necessary in order to understand their ecology. For example, if we consider animal behaviors in terms of their time budget, the percentage of time for other activities such as foraging decreases if their resting periods increase. Even though information about resting behaviors is essential for understanding animal ecology, hardly anything is known about baleen whales' resting habits.

This research group used an omnidirectional camera (with a 360° field-of-view on land and a 270° field-of-view underwater) and a behavioral data logger in order to illuminate the resting behavior of humpback whales.

Research Methodology and Findings

RICOH supplied the basic THETA camera module for this research, which was made pressure-resistant and waterproofed using epoxy glue by Little Leonardo Corp., leading to the development of a new type of animal-borne omnidirectional camera. A suction cup tag was made out of buoyant materials that could be attached to the whale. The tag contained an omnidirectional camera, a behavioral data logger and a radio transmitter.

The field study was conducted in January 2016, off the Tromsø coast in Norway. To tag the whale, the researchers approached it in a small vessel (5-6m) and used a 6m pole to attach the tag to the animal. The tag was designed so that it would fall off naturally after several hours and float up to the surface. The tag was then recovered by determining its location via the signal from the transmitter.

The research team were able to tag one individual, obtaining around one hour of video data and approximately eleven hours of behavioral data. From the behavioral data, the researchers discovered that the whale was inactive during the first half of the recorded period and demonstrated active behavior in the latter half.

Based on past research, it was assumed that this active movement in the latter half was foraging activity. The video data was captured during the first half of the behavioral data recording period when the whale did not move much. In this videoed period, the tagged whale's deepest dive was 11m on average and its average swimming speed (cruising speed) was 0.75m/s-1. It has been reported that humpback whales' regular swimming speed is 1.45m/s-1, however the tagged whale was moving much more slowly during this period. Whales usually move their flukes (tails) when they swim but there were no signs that the individual whale moved its fluke in the behavioral data recorded during the videoed period. In the footage, two other whales that are drifting underwater without moving their flukes are visible. It was determined that the tagged individual was also drifting underwater from its slow swimming speed, lack of fluke movement and the continued presence in the video footage of other individuals that were drifting. Seal species, sperm whales and loggerhead turtles are known to drift underwater while they are resting. Therefore, it is believed that the tagged humpback whale in this study was also resting. Previous research has reported that baleen whale species rest on the surface but this study has revealed that they also rest while drifting underwater. It is thought that whales consider factors such as marine conditions and their own physical condition when choosing from the two different resting environments: on the surface or underwater. In addition, the footage from the omnidirectional camera shows that whales rest underwater in a group rather than on their own.

Further Research

Researchers have been using animal-borne cameras as a tool to investigate the ecology of marine animals. For example, a backwards-facing camera attached to a mother seal recorded images of a pup swimming behind her. However, to ascertain the significance of these images (for example, whether or not the mother was teaching the pup how to hunt) it is necessary to use a camera with a wide field of view so that we can obtain knowledge about the surrounding environment. Still camera images of touching behaviors between whales have also been recorded; however, a wide-lens camera would aid researchers in determining the frequency at which this behavior occurs. These examples show how necessary wide-lens cameras, such as omnidirectional cameras, are for investigating the ecology of marine animals. Such cameras enable researchers to record the environment surrounding the tagged animal, enabling them to determine whether other individuals (such as competitors, collaborators, or predators) are present or not, and understand the frequency and distribution of food sources.

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When volcanoes go metal

 What would a volcano -- and its lava flows -- look like on a planetary body made primarily of metal? A pilot study from North Carolina State University offers insights into ferrovolcanism that could help scientists interpret landscape features on other worlds.

Volcanoes form when magma, which consists of the partially molten solids beneath a planet's surface, erupts. On Earth, that magma is mostly molten rock, composed largely of silica. But not every planetary body is made of rock -- some can be primarily icy or even metallic.

"Cryovolcanism is volcanic activity on icy worlds, and we've seen it happen on Saturn's moon Enceladus," says Arianna Soldati, assistant professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State and lead author of a paper describing the work. "But ferrovolcanism, volcanic activity on metallic worlds, hasn't been observed yet."

Enter 16 Psyche, a 140-mile diameter asteroid situated in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Its surface, according to infrared and radar observations, is mainly iron and nickel. 16 Psyche is the subject of an upcoming NASA mission, and the asteroid inspired Soldati to think about what volcanic activity might look like on a metallic world.

"When we look at images of worlds unlike ours, we still use what happens on Earth -- like evidence of volcanic eruptions -- to interpret them," Soldati says. "However, we don't have widespread metallic volcanism on Earth, so we must imagine what those volcanic processes might look like on other worlds so that we can interpret images correctly."

Soldati defines two possible types of ferrovolcanism: Type 1, or pure ferrovolcanism, occurring on entirely metallic bodies; and Type 2, spurious ferrovolcanism, occurring on hybrid rocky-metallic bodies.

In a pilot study, Soldati and colleagues from the Syracuse Lava Project produced Type 2 ferrovolcanism, in which metal separates from rock as the magma forms.

"The Lava Project's furnace is configured for melting rock, so we were working with the metals (mainly iron) that naturally occur within them," Soldati says. "When you melt rock under the extreme conditions of the furnace, some of the iron will separate out and sink to the bottom since it's heavier. By completely emptying the furnace, we were able to see how that metal magma behaved compared to the rock one."

The metallic lava flows travelled 10 times faster and spread more thinly than the rock flows, breaking into a myriad of braided channels. The metal also traveled largely beneath the rock flow, emerging from the leading edge of the rocky lava.

The smooth, thin, braided, widely spread layers of metallic lava would leave a very different impression on a planet's surface than the often thick, rough, rocky flows we find on Earth, according to Soldati.

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The blast that shook the ionosphere

ExA 2020 explosion in Lebanon's port city of Beirut led to a southward-bound, high-velocity atmospheric wave that rivaled ones generated by volcanic eruptions.

Just after 6 p.m. local time (15.00 UTC) on August 4, 2020, more than 2,750 tons worth of unsafely stored ammonium nitrate exploded in Lebanon's port city of Beirut, killing around 200 people, making more than 300,000 temporarily homeless, and leaving a 140-metre-diameter crater in its wake. The blast is considered one of the most powerful non-nuclear, human-made explosions in human history.

Now, calculations by Hokkaido University scientists in Japan have found that the atmospheric wave from the blast led to electron disturbances high in Earth's upper atmosphere. They published their findings in the journal Scientific Reports.

The team of scientists, which included colleagues from the National Institute of Technology Rourkela in India, calculated changes in total electron content in Earth's ionosphere: the part of the atmosphere from around 50 to 965 kilometres in altitude. Natural events like extreme ultraviolet radiation and geomagnetic storms, and human-made activities like nuclear tests, can cause disturbances to the ionosphere's electron content.

"We found that the blast generated a wave that travelled in the ionosphere in a southwards direction at a velocity of around 0.8 kilometres per second," says Hokkaido University Earth and Planetary scientist Kosuke Heki. This is similar to the speed of sound waves travelling through the ionosphere.

The team calculated changes in ionospheric electron content by looking at differences in delays experienced by microwave signals transmitted by GPS satellites to their ground stations. Changes in electron content affect these signals as they pass through the ionosphere and must be regularly taken into consideration to accurately measure GPS positions.

The scientists also compared the magnitude of the ionospheric wave generated by the Beirut blast to similar waves following natural and anthropogenic events. They found that the wave generated by the Beirut blast was slightly larger than a wave generated by the 2004 eruption of Asama Volcano in central Japan, and comparable to ones that followed other recent eruptions on Japanese islands.

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Novel coronavirus circulated undetected months before first COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China

 Using molecular dating tools and epidemiological simulations, researchers at University of California San Diego School of Medicine, with colleagues at the University of Arizona and Illumina, Inc., estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was likely circulating undetected for at most two months before the first human cases of COVID-19 were described in Wuhan, China in late-December 2019.

Writing in the March 18, 2021 online issue of Science, they also note that their simulations suggest that the mutating virus dies out naturally more than three-quarters of the time without causing an epidemic.

"Our study was designed to answer the question of how long could SARS-CoV-2 have circulated in China before it was discovered," said senior author Joel O. Wertheim, PhD, associate professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health at UC San Diego School of Medicine.

"To answer this question, we combined three important pieces of information: a detailed understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 spread in Wuhan before the lockdown, the genetic diversity of the virus in China and reports of the earliest cases of COVID-19 in China. By combining these disparate lines of evidence, we were able to put an upper limit of mid-October 2019 for when SARS-CoV-2 started circulating in Hubei province."

Cases of COVID-19 were first reported in late-December 2019 in Wuhan, located in the Hubei province of central China. The virus quickly spread beyond Hubei. Chinese authorities cordoned off the region and implemented mitigation measures nationwide. By April 2020, local transmission of the virus was under control but, by then, COVID-19 was pandemic with more than 100 countries reporting cases.

SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic coronavirus, believed to have jumped from an unknown animal host to humans. Numerous efforts have been made to identify when the virus first began spreading among humans, based on investigations of early-diagnosed cases of COVID-19. The first cluster of cases -- and the earliest sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes -- were associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, but study authors say the market cluster is unlikely to have marked the beginning of the pandemic because the earliest documented COVID-19 cases had no connection to the market.

Regional newspaper reports suggest COVID-19 diagnoses in Hubei date back to at least November 17, 2019, suggesting the virus was already actively circulating when Chinese authorities enacted public health measures.

In the new study, researchers used molecular clock evolutionary analyses to try to home in on when the first, or index, case of SARS-CoV-2 occurred. "Molecular clock" is a term for a technique that uses the mutation rate of genes to deduce when two or more life forms diverged -- in this case, when the common ancestor of all variants of SARS-CoV-2 existed, estimated in this study to as early as mid-November 2019.

Molecular dating of the most recent common ancestor is often taken to be synonymous with the index case of an emerging disease. However, said co-author Michael Worobey, PhD, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at University of Arizona: "The index case can conceivably predate the common ancestor -- the actual first case of this outbreak may have occurred days, weeks or even many months before the estimated common ancestor. Determining the length of that 'phylogenetic fuse' was at the heart of our investigation."

Based on this work, the researchers estimate that the median number of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in China was less than one until November 4, 2019. Thirteen days later, it was four individuals, and just nine on December 1, 2019. The first hospitalizations in Wuhan with a condition later identified as COVID-19 occurred in mid-December.

Study authors used a variety of analytical tools to model how the SARS-CoV-2 virus may have behaved during the initial outbreak and early days of the pandemic when it was largely an unknown entity and the scope of the public health threat not yet fully realized.

These tools included epidemic simulations based on the virus's known biology, such as its transmissibility and other factors. In just 29.7 percent of these simulations was the virus able to create self-sustaining epidemics. In the other 70.3 percent, the virus infected relatively few persons before dying out. The average failed epidemic ended just eight days after the index case.

"Typically, scientists use the viral genetic diversity to get the timing of when a virus started to spread," said Wertheim. "Our study added a crucial layer on top of this approach by modeling how long the virus could have circulated before giving rise to the observed genetic diversity.

"Our approach yielded some surprising results. We saw that over two-thirds of the epidemics we attempted to simulate went extinct. That means that if we could go back in time and repeat 2019 one hundred times, two out of three times, COVID-19 would have fizzled out on its own without igniting a pandemic. This finding supports the notion that humans are constantly being bombarded with zoonotic pathogens."

Wertheim noted that even as SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in China in the fall of 2019, the researchers' model suggests it was doing so at low levels until at least December of that year.

"Given that, it's hard to reconcile these low levels of virus in China with claims of infections in Europe and the U.S. at the same time," Wertheim said. "I am quite skeptical of claims of COVID-19 outside China at that time."

The original strain of SARS-CoV-2 became epidemic, the authors write, because it was widely dispersed, which favors persistence, and because it thrived in urban areas where transmission was easier. In simulated epidemics involving less dense rural communities, epidemics went extinct 94.5 to 99.6 percent of the time.

The virus has since mutated multiple times, with a number of variants becoming more transmissible.

"Pandemic surveillance wasn't prepared for a virus like SARS-CoV-2," Wertheim said. "We were looking for the next SARS or MERS, something that killed people at a high rate, but in hindsight, we see how a highly transmissible virus with a modest mortality rate can also lay the world low."

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Astronomers see a 'space jellyfish'

 A radio telescope located in outback Western Australia has observed a cosmic phenomenon with a striking resemblance to a jellyfish.

Published today in The Astrophysical Journal, an Australian-Italian team used the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) telescope to observe a cluster of galaxies known as Abell 2877.

Lead author and PhD candidate Torrance Hodgson, from the Curtin University node of the International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research (ICRAR) in Perth, said the team observed the cluster for 12 hours at five radio frequencies between 87.5 and 215.5 megahertz.

"We looked at the data, and as we turned down the frequency, we saw a ghostly jellyfish-like structure begin to emerge," he said.

"This radio jellyfish holds a world record of sorts. Whilst it's bright at regular FM radio frequencies, at 200 MHz the emission all but disappears.

"No other extragalactic emission like this has been observed to disappear anywhere near so rapidly."

This uniquely steep spectrum has been challenging to explain. "We've had to undertake some cosmic archaeology to understand the ancient background story of the jellyfish," said Hodgson.

"Our working theory is that around 2 billion years ago, a handful of supermassive black holes from multiple galaxies spewed out powerful jets of plasma. This plasma faded, went quiet, and lay dormant.

"Then quite recently, two things happened -- the plasma started mixing at the same time as very gentle shock waves passed through the system.

"This has briefly reignited the plasma, lighting up the jellyfish and its tentacles for us to see."

The jellyfish is over a third of the Moon's diameter when observed from Earth, but can only be seen with low-frequency radio telescopes.

"Most radio telescopes can't achieve observations this low due to their design or location," said Hodgson.

The MWA -- a precursor to the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) -- is located at CSIRO's Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory in remote Western Australia.

The site has been chosen to host the low-frequency antennas for the SKA, with construction scheduled to begin in less than a year.

Professor Johnston-Hollitt, Mr Hodgson's supervisor and co-author, said the SKA will give us an unparalleled view of the low-frequency Universe.

"The SKA will be thousands of times more sensitive and have much better resolution than the MWA, so there may be many other mysterious radio jellyfish waiting to be discovered once it's operational.

"We're about to build an instrument to make a high resolution, fast frame-rate movie of the evolving radio Universe. It will show us from the first stars and galaxies through to the present day," she said.

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Scientists uncover warehouse-full of complex molecules never before seen in space

 Scientists have discovered a vast, previously unknown reservoir of new aromatic material in a cold, dark molecular cloud by detecting individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules in the interstellar medium for the first time, and in doing so are beginning to answer a three-decades-old scientific mystery: how and where are these molecules formed in space?

"We had always thought polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were primarily formed in the atmospheres of dying stars," said Brett McGuire, Assistant Professor of Chemistry at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the Project Principal Investigator for GOTHAM, or Green Bank Telescope (GBT) Observations of TMC-1: Hunting Aromatic Molecules. "In this study, we found them in cold, dark clouds where stars haven't even started forming yet."

Aromatic molecules, and PAHs -- shorthand for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons -- are well known to scientists. Aromatic molecules exist in the chemical makeup of human beings and other animals, and are found in food and medicines. As well, PAHs are pollutants formed from the burning of many fossil fuels and are even amongst the carcinogens formed when vegetables and meat are charred at high temperatures. "Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are thought to contain as much as 25-percent of the carbon in the universe," said McGuire, who is also a research associate at the Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian (CfA). "Now, for the first time, we have a direct window into their chemistry that will let us study in detail how this massive reservoir of carbon reacts and evolves through the process of forming stars and planets."

Scientists have suspected the presence of PAHs in space since the 1980s but the new research, detailed in nine papers published over the past seven months, provides the first definitive proof of their existence in molecular clouds. To search out the elusive molecules, the team focused the 100m behemoth radio astronomy GBT on the Taurus Molecular Cloud, or TMC-1 -- a large, pre-stellar cloud of dust and gas located roughly 450 light-years from Earth that will someday collapse in on itself to form stars -- and what they found was astonishing: not only were the accepted scientific models incorrect, but there was a lot more going on in TMC-1 than the team could have imagined.

"From decades of previous modeling, we believed that we had a fairly good understanding of the chemistry of molecular clouds," said Michael McCarthy, an astrochemist and Acting Deputy Director of CfA, whose research group made the precise laboratory measurements that enabled many of these astronomical detections to be established with confidence. "What these new astronomical observations show is these molecules are not only present in molecular clouds, but at quantities which are orders of magnitude higher than standard models predict."

McGuire added that previous studies revealed only that there were PAH molecules out there, but not which specific ones. "For the last 30 years or so, scientists have been observing the bulk signature of these molecules in our galaxy and other galaxies in the infrared, but we couldn't see which individual molecules made up that mass. With the addition of radio astronomy, instead of seeing this large mass that we can't distinguish, we're seeing individual molecules."

Much to their surprise, the team didn't discover just one new molecule hiding out in TMC-1. Detailed in multiple papers, the team observed 1-cyanonaphthalene, 1-cyano-cyclopentadiene, HC11N, 2-cyanonaphthalene, vinylcyanoacetylene, 2-cyano-cyclopentadiene, benzonitrile, trans-(E)-cyanovinylacetylene, HC4NC, and propargylcyanide, among others. "It's like going into a boutique shop and just browsing the inventory on the front-end without ever knowing there was a back room. We've been collecting little molecules for 50 years or so and now we have discovered there's a back door. When we opened that door and looked in, we found this giant warehouse of molecules and chemistry that we did not expect," said McGuire. "There it was, all the time, lurking just beyond where we had looked before."

McGuire and other scientists at the GOTHAM project have been "hunting" for molecules in TMC-1 for more than two years, following McGuire's initial detection of benzonitrile in 2018. The results of the project's latest observations may have ramifications in astrophysics for years to come. "We've stumbled onto a whole new set of molecules unlike anything we've previously been able to detect, and that is going to completely change our understanding of how these molecules interact with each other. It has downstream ramifications," said McGuire, adding that eventually these molecules grow large enough that they begin to aggregate into the seeds of interstellar dust. "When these molecules get big enough that they're the seeds of interstellar dust, these have the possibility then to affect the composition of asteroids, comets, and planets, the surfaces on which ices form, and perhaps in turn even the locations where planets form within star systems."

The discovery of new molecules in TMC-1 also has implications for astrochemistry, and while the team doesn't yet have all of the answers, the ramifications here, too, will last for decades. "We've gone from one-dimensional carbon chemistry, which is very easy to detect, to real organic chemistry in space in the sense that the newly discovered molecules are ones that a chemist knows and recognizes, and can produce on Earth," said McCarthy. "And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Whether these organic molecules were synthesized there or transported there, they exist, and that knowledge alone is a fundamental advance in the field."

Before the launch of GOTHAM in 2018, scientists had cataloged roughly 200 individual molecules in the Milky Way's interstellar medium. These new discoveries have prompted the team to wonder, and rightly so, what's out there. "The amazing thing about these observations, about this discovery, and about these molecules, is that no one had looked, or looked hard enough," said McCarthy. "It makes you wonder what else is out there that we just haven't looked for."

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