Raindrops also keep fallin' on exoplanets

One day, humankind may step foot on another habitable planet. That planet may look very different from Earth, but one thing will feel familiar -- the rain.

In a recent paper, Harvard researchers found that raindrops are remarkably similar across different planetary environments, even planets as drastically different as Earth and Jupiter. Understanding the behavior of raindrops on other planets is key to not only revealing the ancient climate on planets like Mars but identifying potentially habitable planets outside our solar system.

"The lifecycle of clouds is really important when we think about planet habitability," said Kaitlyn Loftus, a graduate student in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and lead author of the paper. "But clouds and precipitation are really complicated and too complex to model completely. We're looking for simpler ways to understand how clouds evolve, and a first step is whether cloud droplets evaporate in the atmosphere or make it to the surface as rain."

"The humble raindrop is a vital component of the precipitation cycle for all planets," said Robin Wordsworth, Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) and senior author of the paper. "If we understand how individual raindrops behave, we can better represent rainfall in complex climate models."

An essential aspect of raindrop behavior, at least to climate modelers, is whether or not the raindrop makes it to the surface of the planet because water in the atmosphere plays a big role in planetary climate. To that end, size matters. Too big and the drop will break apart due to insufficient surface tension, regardless of whether it's water, methane or superheated, liquid iron as on an exoplanet called WASP-76b. Too small and the drop will evaporate before hitting the surface.

Loftus and Wordsworth identified a Goldilocks zone for raindrop size using just three properties: drop shape, falling speed, and evaporation speed.

Drop shapes are the same across different rain materials and primarily depend on how heavy the drop is. While many of us may picture a traditional tear-shaped droplet, raindrops are actually spherical when small, becoming squashed as they grow larger until they transition into a shape like the top of a hamburger bun. Falling speed depends on this shape as well as gravity and the thickness of the surrounding air.

Evaporation speed is more complicated, influenced by atmospheric composition, pressure, temperature, relative humidity and more.

By taking all of these properties into account, Loftus and Wordsworth found that across a wide range of planetary conditions, the math of raindrop falling means only a very small fraction of the possible drop sizes in a cloud can reach the surface.

"We can use this behavior to guide us as we model cloud cycles on exoplanets," said Loftus.

"The insights we gain from thinking about raindrops and clouds in diverse environments are key to understanding exoplanet habitability," said Wordsworth. "In the long term, they can also help us gain a deeper understanding of the climate of Earth itself."

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Hubble spots double quasars in merging galaxies

 NASA's Hubble Space Telescope is "seeing double." Peering back 10 billion years into the universe's past, Hubble astronomers found a pair of quasars that are so close to each other they look like a single object in ground-based telescopic photos, but not in Hubble's crisp view.

The researchers believe the quasars are very close to each other because they reside in the cores of two merging galaxies. The team went on to win the "daily double" by finding yet another quasar pair in another colliding galaxy duo.

A quasar is a brilliant beacon of intense light from the center of a distant galaxy that can outshine the entire galaxy. It is powered by a supermassive black hole voraciously feeding on inflating matter, unleashing a torrent of radiation.

"We estimate that in the distant universe, for every 1,000 quasars, there is one double quasar. So finding these double quasars is like finding a needle in a haystack," said lead researcher Yue Shen of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

The discovery of these four quasars offers a new way to probe collisions among galaxies and the merging of supermassive black holes in the early universe, researchers say.

Quasars are scattered all across the sky and were most abundant 10 billion years ago. There were a lot of galaxy mergers back then feeding the black holes. Therefore, astronomers theorize there should have been many dual quasars during that time.

"This truly is the first sample of dual quasars at the peak epoch of galaxy formation with which we can use to probe ideas about how supermassive black holes come together to eventually form a binary," said research team member Nadia Zakamska of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland.

The team's results appeared in the April 1 online issue of the journal Nature Astronomy.

Shen and Zakamska are members of a team that is using Hubble, the European Space Agency's Gaia space observatory, and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, as well as several ground-based telescopes, to compile a robust census of quasar pairs in the early universe.

The observations are important because a quasar's role in galactic encounters plays a critical part in galaxy formation, the researchers say. As two close galaxies begin to distort each other gravitationally, their interaction funnels material into their respective black holes, igniting their quasars.

Over time, radiation from these high-intensity "light bulbs" launch powerful galactic winds, which sweep out most of the gas from the merging galaxies. Deprived of gas, star formation ceases, and the galaxies evolve into elliptical galaxies.

"Quasars make a profound impact on galaxy formation in the universe," Zakamska said. "Finding dual quasars at this early epoch is important because we can now test our long-standing ideas of how black holes and their host galaxies evolve together."

Astronomers have discovered more than 100 double quasars in merging galaxies so far. However, none of them is as old as the two double quasars in this study.

The Hubble images show that quasars within each pair are only about 10,000 light-years apart. By comparison, our Sun is 26,000 light-years from the supermassive black hole in the center of our galaxy.

The pairs of host galaxies will eventually merge, and then the quasars also will coalesce, resulting in an even more massive, single solitary black hole.

Finding them wasn't easy. Hubble is the only telescope with vision sharp enough to peer back to the early universe and distinguish two close quasars that are so far away from Earth. However, Hubble's sharp resolution alone isn't good enough to find these dual light beacons.

Astronomers first needed to figure out where to point Hubble to study them. The challenge is that the sky is blanketed with a tapestry of ancient quasars that flared to life 10 billion years ago, only a tiny fraction of which are dual. It took an imaginative and innovative technique that required the help of the European Space Agency's Gaia satellite and the ground-based Sloan Digital Sky Survey to compile a group of potential candidates for Hubble to observe.

Located at Apache Point Observatory in New Mexico, the Sloan telescope produces three-dimensional maps of objects throughout the sky. The team pored through the Sloan survey to identify the quasars to study more closely.

The researchers then enlisted the Gaia observatory to help pinpoint potential double-quasar candidates. Gaia measures the positions, distances, and motions of nearby celestial objects very precisely. But the team devised a new, innovative application for Gaia that could be used for exploring the distant universe. They used the observatory's database to search for quasars that mimic the apparent motion of nearby stars. The quasars appear as single objects in the Gaia data. However, Gaia can pick up a subtle, unexpected "jiggle" in the apparent position of some of the quasars it observes.

The quasars aren't moving through space in any measurable way, but instead their jiggle could be evidence of random fluctuations of light as each member of the quasar pair varies in brightness. Quasars flicker in brightness on timescales of days to months, depending on their black hole's feeding schedule.

This alternating brightness between the quasar pair is similar to seeing a railroad crossing signal from a distance. As the lights on both sides of the stationary signal alternately flash, the sign gives the illusion of "jiggling."

When the first four targets were observed with Hubble, its crisp vision revealed that two of the targets are two close pairs of quasars. The researchers said it was a "light bulb moment" that verified their plan of using Sloan, Gaia, and Hubble to hunt for the ancient, elusive double powerhouses.

Team member Xin Liu of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign called the Hubble confirmation a "happy surprise." She has long hunted for double quasars closer to Earth using different techniques with ground-based telescopes. "The new technique can not only discover dual quasars much further away, but it is much more efficient than the methods we've used before," she said.

Their Nature Astronomy article is a "proof of concept that really demonstrates that our targeted search for dual quasars is very efficient," said team member Hsiang-Chih Hwang, a graduate student at Johns Hopkins University and the principal investigator of the Hubble program. "It opens a new direction where we can accumulate a lot more interesting systems to follow up, which astronomers weren't able to do with previous techniques or datasets."

The team also obtained follow-up observations with the National Science Foundation NOIRLab's Gemini telescopes. "Gemini's spatially-resolved spectroscopy can unambiguously reject interlopers due to chance superpositions from unassociated star-quasar systems, where the foreground star is coincidentally aligned with the background quasar," said team member Yu-Ching Chen, a graduate student at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Although the team is convinced of their result, they say there is a slight chance that the Hubble snapshots captured double images of the same quasar, an illusion caused by gravitational lensing. This phenomenon occurs when the gravity of a massive foreground galaxy splits and amplifies the light from the background quasar into two mirror images. However, the researchers think this scenario is highly unlikely because Hubble did not detect any foreground galaxies near the two quasar pairs.

Galactic mergers were more plentiful billions of years ago, but a few are still happening today. One example is NGC 6240, a nearby system of merging galaxies that has two and possibly even three supermassive black holes. An even closer galactic merger will occur in a few billion years when our Milky Way galaxy collides with neighboring Andromeda galaxy. The galactic tussle would likely feed the supermassive black holes in the core of each galaxy, igniting them as quasars.

Future telescopes may offer more insight into these merging systems. NASA's James Webb Space Telescope, an infrared observatory scheduled to launch later this year, will probe the quasars' host galaxies. Webb will show the signatures of galactic mergers, such as the distribution of starlight and the long streamers of gas pulled from the interacting galaxies.

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Exploring comet thermal history: Burnt-out comet covered with talcum powder

 The world's first ground-based observations of the bare nucleus of a comet nearing the end of its active life revealed that the nucleus has a diameter of 800 meters and is covered with large grains of phyllosilicate; on Earth large grains of phyllosilicate are commonly available as talcum powder. This discovery provides clues to piece together the history of how this comet evolved into its current burnt-out state.

Comet nuclei are difficult to observe because when they enter the inner Solar System, where they are easy to observe from Earth, they heat up and release gas and dust which form a coma obscuring the nuclei. When Comet P/2016 BA14 (PANSTARRS) was discovered in January 2016 it was first mistaken for an asteroid, but subsequent observations revealed weak cometary activity. It is believed that after many trips through the inner Solar System, this comet has burnt off almost all of its ice and is now nearing the end of its cometary life.

On March 22, 2016, this comet passed within 3.6 million kilometers of Earth, only 9 times farther than the Moon. A team of astronomers from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) and Koyama Astronomical Observatory of Kyoto Sangyo University used this unique opportunity to observe the comet with the Subaru Telescope about 30 hours before its closest approach to Earth. They successfully observed the nucleus with minimal interference from dust grains in the coma. Previously, the surface composition of a cometary nucleus has only been observed by a few "in-situ" observations by space missions.

Because the team observed thermal infrared radiation, the same region of the infrared used by contactless thermometers, they were able to find evidence that the nucleus is 800 meters in diameter and covered with organic molecules and large grains of phyllosilicate. This is the first time hydrous silicate minerals such as talc have been found in a comet. Comparison with laboratory measurements of various minerals revealed that the hydrous silicate minerals on the surface of P/2016 BA14 have been heated to more than about 330 degrees Celsius in the past. Since the surface temperature of P/2016 BA14 cannot reach higher than about 130 degrees Celsius in its current orbit, the comet may have been in an orbit closer to the Sun in the past.

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Dark Energy Survey physicists open new window into dark energy

An analysis by Dark Energy Survey physicists yields more precise estimates of the average density of matter as well as its propensity to clump together -- two key parameters that help physicists probe the nature of dark matter and dark energy.

The universe is expanding at an ever-increasing rate, and while no one is sure why, researchers with the Dark Energy Survey (DES) at least had a strategy for figuring it out: They would combine measurements of the distribution of matter, galaxies and galaxy clusters to better understand what's going on.

Reaching that goal turned out to be pretty tricky, but now a team led by researchers at the Department of Energy's SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University and the University of Arizona have come up with a solution. Their analysis, published April 6 in Physical Review Letters, yields more precise estimates of the average density of matter as well as its propensity to clump together -- two key parameters that help physicists probe the nature of dark matter and dark energy, the mysterious substances that make up the vast majority of the universe.

"It is one of the best constraints from one of the best data sets to date," says Chun-Hao To, a lead author on the new paper and a graduate student at SLAC and Stanford working with Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology Director Risa Wechsler.

An early goal

When DES set out in 2013 to map an eighth of the sky, the goal was to gather four kinds of data: the distances to certain types of supernovae, or exploding stars; the distribution of matter in the universe; the distribution of galaxies; and the distribution of galaxy clusters. Each tells researchers something about how the universe has evolved over time.

Ideally, scientists would put all four data sources together to improve their estimates, but there's a snag: The distributions of matter, galaxies, and galaxy clusters are all closely related. If researchers don't take these relationships into account, they will end up "double counting," placing too much weight on some data and not enough on others, To says.

To avoid mishandling all this information, To, University of Arizona astrophysicist Elisabeth Krause and colleagues have developed a new model that could properly account for the connections in the distributions of all three quantities: matter, galaxies, and galaxy clusters. In doing so, they were able to produce the first-ever analysis to properly combine all these disparate data sets in order to learn about dark matter and dark energy.

Improving estimates

Adding that model into the DES analysis has two effects, To says. First, measurements of the distributions of matter, galaxies and galaxy clusters tend to introduce different kinds of errors. Combining all three measurements makes it easier to identify any such errors, making the analysis more robust. Second, the three measurements differ in how sensitive they are to the average density of matter and its clumpiness. As a result, combining all three can improve the precision with which the DES can measure dark matter and dark energy.

In the new paper, To, Krause and colleagues applied their new methods to the first year of DES data and sharpened the precision of previous estimates for matter's density and clumpiness.

Now that the team can incorporate matter, galaxies and galaxy clusters simultaneously in their analysis, adding in supernova data will be relatively straightforward, since that kind of data is not as closely related with the other three, To says.

"The immediate next step," he says, "is to apply the machinery to DES Year 3 data, which has three times larger coverage of the sky." This is not as simple as it sounds: While the basic idea is the same, the new data will require additional efforts to improve the model to keep up with the higher quality of the newer data, To says.

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Skin deep: Aquatic skin adaptations of whales and hippos evolved independently

 A new study shows that the similarly smooth, nearly hairless skin of whales and hippopotamuses evolved independently. The work suggests that their last common ancestor was likely a land-dwelling mammal, uprooting current thinking that the skin came fine-tuned for life in the water from a shared amphibious ancestor. The study is published today in the journal Current Biology and was led by researchers at the American Museum of Natural History; University of California, Irvine; University of California, Riverside; Max Planck Institute of Molecular Cell Biology and Genetics; and the LOEWE-Centre for Translational Biodiversity Genomics (Germany).

"How mammals left terra firma and became fully aquatic is one of the most fascinating evolutionary stories, perhaps rivaled only by how animals traded water for land in the first place or by the evolution of flight," said John Gatesy, a senior research scientist in the American Museum of Natural History's Division of Vertebrate Zoology and a corresponding author on the study. "Our latest findings contradict the current dogma in the field -- that relatives of the amphibious hippo might have been part of the transition as mammals re-entered life in the water."

Despite their contrasting appearances, fully aquatic cetaceans -- the group that includes whales, dolphins, and porpoises -- and semi-aquatic hippopotamuses are each other's closest living relatives and share a common ancestor that lived about 55 million years ago. They also share a number of characteristics that are odd for most mammals: they give birth and nurse underwater, and lack scrotal testes and sebaceous glands (that secrete oily sebum) as well as most of their hair. Since these traits are rarely found in other mammals, one would assume that they were already present in the common ancestor of hippos and cetaceans. But how and when cetacean ancestors became fully aquatic remains a subject of intense debate.

Paleontological studies on transitional extinct cetaceans suggest that entry into water was a gradual process that included amphibious phases. So did hippos and cetaceans develop adaptations for an aquatic lifestyle independently? Or was their common ancestor already amphibious, and from there, cetaceans diverged to become fully aquatic?

"The simplest hypothesis is that the ancestor of whales and hippos was already amphibious, but evolution isn't always the shortest distance between two points," said the study's lead author Mark Springer, a biology professor at the University of California, Riverside.

To help resolve this question, the researchers looked to the animals' skin, which shows profound evolutionary changes in response to aquatic life.

"When a group of animals becomes aquatic, skin becomes much more streamlined and uniform throughout," said Maksim Plikus, a co-corresponding author and a skin biologist from the University of California, Irvine. "Complex derivatives like hairs, nails, or sweat glands are no longer needed, and in fact, can become a hinderance to life under water, so those go away. And it loses the barrier function performed by the outer layer of skin, which in terrestrial mammals, is vital to keeping water from evaporating out of the body and preventing pathogens from getting in."

The researchers compared the anatomy of hippo and cetacean skin based on histology and used genomic screens to compile a comprehensive list of "skin genes" that have been inactivated in both hippos and cetaceans. This was aided by examining -- for the first time -- the genome of the pygmy hippo, Choeropsis liberiensis, one of only two living hippo species.

"When you look at the molecular signatures, there is a striking and clear answer," said study co-corresponding author and evolutionary genomicist Michael Hiller, from the Max Planck Institute of Molecular Cell Biology and Genetics and the LOEWE-Centre for Translational Biodiversity Genomics in Germany. "Our results strongly support the idea that 'aquatic' skin traits found in both hippos and cetaceans evolved independently. And not only that, we can see that the gene losses in the hippo lineage happened much later than in the cetacean lineage."

These gene results are in line with examinations of the skin itself: Unlike whales, hippos actually do have a very specialized kind of sweat gland that produces "blood sweat," an orange-colored substance that is speculated to have natural anti-microbial and sunscreen properties. And while cetaceans only have a few whiskers, hippos are fully whiskered but also have sparse body hairs, most prominent on their ears and the tip of their tail. The latter are used when hippos defecate, during which they quickly spin their tail and the brush-like hairs help to pulverize the feces all around as a way to mark territory. In addition, cetacean skin is much thicker than hippo skin, and hippos are alone in having hooves.

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Less than a nanometer thick, stronger and more versatile than steel

 Scientists create stable nanosheets containing boron and hydrogen atoms with potential applications in nanoelectronics and quantum information technology.

What's thinner than thin? One answer is two-dimensional materials -- exotic materials of science with length and width but only one or two atoms in thickness. They offer the possibility of unprecedented boosts in device performance for electronic devices, solar cells, batteries and medical equipment.

In collaboration with Northwestern University and the University of Florida, scientists from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory report in Science magazine a breakthrough involving a 2D material called borophane, a sheet of boron and hydrogen a mere two atoms in thickness.

One of the most exciting developments in materials science in recent decades has been a 2D sheet of carbon (graphene), which is one atom thick and 200 times stronger than steel. A similarly promising and newer material is an atom-thick sheet of boron, called borophene -- with an "e." A multi-institutional team, including researchers in Argonne's Center for Nanoscale Materials (a DOE Office of Science User Facility), first synthesized borophene in 2015.

While graphene is simply one atomic layer out of the many same layers in the common material graphite, borophene has no equivalent parent structure and is very difficult to prepare. What's more, the rapid reaction of borophene with air means it is very unstable and changes form readily.

"Borophene by itself has all kinds of problems," said Mark Hersam, Professor of Materials Science and Engineering at Northwestern University. "But when we mix borophene with hydrogen, the product suddenly becomes much more stable and attractive for use in the burgeoning fields of nanoelectronics and quantum information technology."

The research team grew borophene on a silver substrate then exposed it to hydrogen to form the borophane. They then unraveled the complex structure of borophane by combining a scanning tunneling microscope with a computer-vision based algorithm that compares theoretical simulations of structures with experimental measurements. Computer vision is a branch of artificial intelligence that trains high performance computers to interpret and understand the visual world.

Even though the borophane material is only two atoms thick, its structure is quite complex because of the many possible arrangements for the boron and hydrogen atoms. "We have tackled a significant challenge in determining the atomic structures from scanning tunneling microscopy images and computational modeling at the atomic scale with the help of computer vision," said Argonne's Maria Chan, nanoscientist at the Center for Nanoscale Materials. Given the success in unraveling this complex structure, the team's automated analytical technique should be applicable in identifying other complex nanostructures in the future.

"What is really encouraging from our results is that we found a borophane nanosheet on a silver substrate to be quite stable, unlike borophene," said Pierre Darancet, nanoscientist at Argonne's Center for Nanoscale Materials. "This means it should be easily integrated with other materials in the construction of new devices for optoelectronics, devices combining light with electronics." Such light-controlling and light-emitting devices could be incorporated into telecommunications, medical equipment and more.

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Scientists scour genes of 53,000+ people to better battle dangerous diseases

A new analysis of the entire genetic makeup of more than 53,000 people offers a bonanza of valuable insights into heart, lung, blood and sleep disorders, paving the way for new and better ways to treat and prevent some of the most common causes of disability and death.

The analysis from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program examines the complete genomes of 53,831 people of diverse backgrounds on different continents. Most are from minority groups, which have been historically underrepresented in genetic studies. The increased representation should translate into better understanding of how heart, lung, blood and sleep disorders affect minorities and should help reduce longstanding health disparities.

"The Human Genome Project has generated a lot of promises and opportunities for applying genomics to precision medicine, and the TOPMed program is a major step in this direction," said Stephen S. Rich, PhD, a genetics researcher at the University of Virginia School of Medicine who helped lead the project. "An important feature of TOPMed is not only publishing the genomic data on 53,000 people with massive amounts of data related to heart, lung, blood and sleep disorders but also the great diversity of the participants who donated their blood and data."

Historic Genome Analysis

The groundbreaking work identified 400 million genetic variants, of which more than 78% had never been described. Nearly 97% were extremely rare, occurring in less than 1% of people. This sheds light on both how genes mutate and on human evolution itself, the researchers say.

Of the groups studied, people of African descent had the greatest genetic variability, the researchers found. The resulting data is the best ever produced on people of African ancestry, the scientists report in the journal Nature.

The work also offers important new insights into certain gene variants that can reduce people's ability to benefit from prescription drugs. This can vary by race and ethnic group.

"TOPMed is an important and historic effort to include under-represented minority participants in genetic studies," said Rich, who served on the project's Executive Committee and chaired the Steering Committee. "The work of TOPMed should translate not only into better scientific knowledge but increase diversity at all levels -- scientists, trainees, participants -- in work to extend personalized medicine for everyone."

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Masks, ventilation stop COVID spread better than social distancing, study shows

 A new study from the University of Central Florida suggests that masks and a good ventilation system are more important than social distancing for reducing the airborne spread of COVID-19 in classrooms.

The research, published recently in the journal Physics of Fluids, comes at a critical time when schools and universities are considering returning to more in-person classes in the fall.

"The research is important as it provides guidance on how we are understanding safety in indoor environments," says Michael Kinzel, an assistant professor in UCF's Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and study co-author.

"The study finds that aerosol transmission routes do not display a need for six feet social distancing when masks are mandated," he says. "These results highlight that with masks, transmission probability does not decrease with increased physical distancing, which emphasizes how mask mandates may be key to increasing capacity in schools and other places."

In the study, the researchers created a computer model of a classroom with students and a teacher, then modeled airflow and disease transmission, and calculated airborne-driven transmission risk.

The classroom model was 709 square feet with 9-foot-tall ceilings, similar to a smaller-size, university classroom, Kinzel says. The model had masked students -- any one of whom could be infected -- and a masked teacher at the front of the classroom.

The researchers examined the classroom using two scenarios -- a ventilated classroom and an unventilated one -- and using two models, Wells-Riley and Computational Fluid Dynamics. Wells-Riley is commonly used to assess indoor transmission probability and Computational Fluid Dynamics is often used to understand the aerodynamics of cars, aircraft and the underwater movement of submarines.

Masks were shown to be beneficial by preventing direct exposure of aerosols, as the masks provide a weak puff of warm air that causes aerosols to move vertically, thus preventing them from reaching adjacent students, Kinzel says.

Additionally, a ventilation system in combination with a good air filter reduced the infection risk by 40 to 50% compared to a classroom with no ventilation. This is because the ventilation system creates a steady current of air flow that circulates many of the aerosols into a filter that removes a portion of the aerosols compared to the no-ventilation scenario where the aerosols congregate above the people in the room.

These results corroborate recent guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that recommend reducing social distancing in elementary schools from six to three feet when mask use is universal, Kinzel says.

"If we compare infection probabilities when wearing masks, three feet of social distancing did not indicate an increase in infection probability with respect to six feet, which may provide evidence for schools and other businesses to safely operate through the rest of the pandemic," Kinzel says.

"The results suggest exactly what the CDC is doing, that ventilation systems and mask usage are most important for preventing transmission and that social distancing would be the first thing to relax," the researcher says.

When comparing the two models, the researchers found that Wells-Riley and Computational Fluid Dynamics generated similar results, especially in the non-ventilated scenario, but that Wells-Riley underpredicted infection probability by about 29 percent in the ventilated scenario.

As a result, they recommend some of the additional complex effects captured in Computational Fluid Dynamics be applied to Wells-Riley to develop a more complete understanding of risk of infection in a space, says Aaron Foster, a doctoral student in UCF's Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and the study's lead author.

"While the detailed Computational Fluid Dynamics results provided new insights into the risk variation and distance relationships, they also validated the more commonly used Wells-Riley models as capturing the majority of the benefit of ventilation with reasonable accuracy," Foster says. "This is important since these are publicly available tools that anyone can use to reduce risk."

The research is part of a larger overall effort to control airborne disease transmission and better understand factors related to being a super-spreader. The researchers are also testing the effects of masks on aerosol and droplet transmission distance. The work is funded in part by the National Science Foundation.

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African elephants' range is just 17 percent of what it could be

 A study reported in the journal Current Biology on April 1 has both good news and bad news for the future of African elephants. While about 18 million square kilometers of Africa -- an area bigger than the whole of Russia -- still has suitable habitat for elephants, the actual range of African elephants has shrunk to just 17%of what it could be due to human pressure and the killing of elephants for ivory.

"We looked at every square kilometer of the continent," says lead author Jake Wall of the Mara Elephant Project in Kenya. "We found that 62% of those 29.2 million square kilometers is suitable habitat."

The findings suggest that, if released from human pressures, including the threat of being killed for their ivory, elephants still have great potential for recovery into areas where the human footprint is light. They note that those 18 million square kilometers include many areas where there is still room for peaceful coexistence between humans and elephants as well as others where that prospect is clearly not realistic.

Like many wildlife species, it's long been clear that African elephant populations and their geographic range were shrinking due to killing for ivory, habitat loss, and the growth of human populations. But African savannah and forest elephants can live in many environments, from semi-deserts to tropical swamp forests. Wall's team wanted to better understand how elephants are using the space that's available to them and what's driving their ranging patterns.

To analyze the suitability of habitats over the entire continent at a kilometer-level scale, Wall and his colleagues drew on data from GPS-tracking collars fitted to 229 elephants across Africa by Save the Elephants and its partners over a 15-year period. Using Google Earth Engine, a satellite imagery computing platform, they looked at the vegetation, tree cover, surface temperature, rainfall, water, slope, aggregate human influence, and protected areas in the areas the elephants traversed. This allowed them to determine which habitats can support elephants and the extremes of conditions that they currently can tolerate.

"Combining three powerful tools -- GPS telemetry, continent-wide remote sensing at a fine resolution, and a suite of analytical techniques -- has allowed us to see what factors now control the movements and lives of these two hugely ecologically important species -- and where, if circumstances change, they could range more widely across their historical African home," said Samantha Strindberg of the Wildlife Conservation Society.

The researchers uncovered vast areas of potentially suitable habitat for elephants in the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The researchers note that forests in those areas recently held hundreds of thousands of elephants but today hold only about 5,000 to 10,000. The study also highlighted the extreme habitats that African elephants do not visit.

"The major no-go areas include the Sahara, Danakil, and Kalahari deserts, as well as urban centers and high mountaintops," said Iain Douglas-Hamilton, the founder of Save the Elephants. "That gives us an idea of what the former range of elephants might have been. However, there's a dearth of information about the status of African elephants between the end of Roman times and the arrival of the first European colonizers."

The tracking data also show that elephants living in protected areas tend to have smaller home ranges. The researchers suggest that's probably because they feel unsafe ranging into unprotected lands. The study notes that approximately 57% of the current elephant range is outside of protected areas, highlighting the limited space presently reserved for their safety. To secure long-term survival of elephants, the researchers say that habitat protection, protection of elephants themselves from illegal killing, and an ethic of human-elephant coexistence will be essential.

"Elephants are generalist mega-herbivores that can occupy fringe habitats," Wall says. "Their range may have shrunk, but if we gave them the chance, they could spread back to former parts of it."

Unfortunately, trends are headed in the wrong direction. "The human footprint is increasing at an accelerated rate and expected to double by 2050, with between 50% and 70% of the planet already experiencing anthropogenic disturbance," the researchers write. "Fragmentation of wildlife habitats by humans has resulted in only 7% of wildlife habitat patches being larger than 100 km2. Development scenarios that accommodate the spatial needs of wildlife leaving large, low-human impact areas of intact habitat, and especially formally protected areas, are urgently required. In the face of increasing human pressures, proactive landscape planning at the local, national, and continental scales are critical, as well as fostering an ethic of human elephant coexistence, if the future of elephants is to be secured."

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Evidence of Antarctic glacier's tipping point confirmed

 Researchers have confirmed for the first time that Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica could cross tipping points, leading to a rapid and irreversible retreat which would have significant consequences for global sea level.

Pine Island Glacier is a region of fast-flowing ice draining an area of West Antarctica approximately two thirds the size of the UK. The glacier is a particular cause for concern as it is losing more ice than any other glacier in Antarctica.

Currently, Pine Island Glacier together with its neighbouring Thwaites glacier are responsible for about 10% of the ongoing increase in global sea level.

Scientists have argued for some time that this region of Antarctica could reach a tipping point and undergo an irreversible retreat from which it could not recover. Such a retreat, once started, could lead to the collapse of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which contains enough ice to raise global sea level by over three metres.

While the general possibility of such a tipping point within ice sheets has been raised before, showing that Pine Island Glacier has the potential to enter unstable retreat is a very different question.

Now, researchers from Northumbria University have shown, for the first time, that this is indeed the case.

Their findings are published in leading journal, The Cryosphere.

Using a state-of-the-art ice flow model developed by Northumbria's glaciology research group, the team have developed methods that allow tipping points within ice sheets to be identified.

For Pine Island Glacier, their study shows that the glacier has at least three distinct tipping points. The third and final event, triggered by ocean temperatures increasing by 1.2C, leads to an irreversible retreat of the entire glacier.

The researchers say that long-term warming and shoaling trends in Circumpolar Deep Water, in combination with changing wind patterns in the Amundsen Sea, could expose Pine Island Glacier's ice shelf to warmer waters for longer periods of time, making temperature changes of this magnitude increasingly likely.

The lead author of the study, Dr Sebastian Rosier, is a Vice-Chancellor's Research Fellow in Northumbria's Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences. He specialises in the modelling processes controlling ice flow in Antarctica with the goal of understanding how the continent will contribute to future sea level rise.

Dr Rosier is a member of the University's glaciology research group, led by Professor Hilmar Gudmundsson, which is currently working on a major £4million study to investigate if climate change will drive the Antarctic Ice Sheet towards a tipping point.

Dr Rosier explained: "The potential for this region to cross a tipping point has been raised in the past, but our study is the first to confirm that Pine Island Glacier does indeed cross these critical thresholds.

"Many different computer simulations around the world are attempting to quantify how a changing climate could affect the West Antarctic Ice Sheet but identifying whether a period of retreat in these models is a tipping point is challenging.

"However, it is a crucial question and the methodology we use in this new study makes it much easier to identify potential future tipping points."

Hilmar Gudmundsson, Professor of Glaciology and Extreme Environments worked with Dr Rosier on the study. He added: "The possibility of Pine Island Glacier entering an unstable retreat has been raised before but this is the first time that this possibility is rigorously established and quantified.

"This is a major forward step in our understanding of the dynamics of this area and I'm thrilled that we have now been able to finally provide firm answers to this important question.

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