Carbon source found on surface of Jupiter's moon Europa

Jupiter's moon Europa is one of a handful of worlds in our solar system that could potentially harbor conditions suitable for life. Previous research has shown that beneath its water-ice crust lies a salty ocean of liquid water with a rocky seafloor. However, planetary scientists had not confirmed if that ocean contained the chemicals needed for life, particularly carbon.

Astronomers using data from NASA's James Webb Space Telescope have identified carbon dioxide in a specific region on the icy surface of Europa. Analysis indicates that this carbon likely originated in the subsurface ocean and was not delivered by meteorites or other external sources. Moreover, it was deposited on a geologically recent timescale. This discovery has important implications for the potential habitability of Europa's ocean.

"On Earth, life likes chemical diversity -- the more diversity, the better. We're carbon-based life. Understanding the chemistry of Europa's ocean will help us determine whether it's hostile to life as we know it, or if it might be a good place for life," said Geronimo Villanueva of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, lead author of one of two independent papers describing the findings.

"We now think that we have observational evidence that the carbon we see on Europa's surface came from the ocean. That's not a trivial thing. Carbon is a biologically essential element," added Samantha Trumbo of Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, lead author of the second paper analyzing these data.

NASA plans to launch its Europa Clipper spacecraft, which will perform dozens of close flybys of Europa to further investigate whether it could have conditions suitable for life, in October 2024.

A Surface-Ocean Connection

Webb finds that on Europa's surface, carbon dioxide is most abundant in a region called Tara Regio -- a geologically young area of generally resurfaced terrain known as "chaos terrain." The surface ice has been disrupted, and there likely has been an exchange of material between the subsurface ocean and the icy surface.

"Previous observations from the Hubble Space Telescope show evidence for ocean-derived salt in Tara Regio," explained Trumbo. "Now we're seeing that carbon dioxide is heavily concentrated there as well. We think this implies that the carbon probably has its ultimate origin in the internal ocean."

"Scientists are debating how much Europa's ocean connects to its surface. I think that question has been a big driver of Europa exploration," said Villanueva. "This suggests that we may be able to learn some basic things about the ocean's composition even before we drill through the ice to get the full picture."

Both teams identified the carbon dioxide using data from the integral field unit of Webb's Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec). This instrument mode provides spectra with a resolution of 200 x 200 miles (320 x 320 kilometers) on the surface of Europa, which has a diameter of 1,944 miles, allowing astronomers to determine where specific chemicals are located.

Carbon dioxide isn't stable on Europa's surface. Therefore, the scientists say it's likely that it was supplied on a geologically recent timescale -- a conclusion bolstered by its concentration in a region of young terrain.

"These observations only took a few minutes of the observatory's time," said Heidi Hammel of the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, a Webb interdisciplinary scientist leading Webb's Cycle 1 Guaranteed Time Observations of the solar system. "Even with this short period of time, we were able to do really big science. This work gives a first hint of all the amazing solar system science we'll be able to do with Webb."

Searching for a Plume

Villanueva's team also looked for evidence of a plume of water vapor erupting from Europa's surface. Researchers using NASA's Hubble Space Telescope reported tentative detections of plumes in 2013, 2016, and 2017. However, finding definitive proof has been difficult.

The new Webb data shows no evidence of plume activity, which allowed Villanueva's team to set a strict upper limit on the rate of material potentially being ejected. The team stressed, however, that their non-detection does not rule out a plume.

"There is always a possibility that these plumes are variable and that you can only see them at certain times. All we can say with 100% confidence is that we did not detect a plume at Europa when we made these observations with Webb," said Hammel.

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New recipes for origin of life may point way to distant, inhabited planets

Life on a faraway planet -- if it's out there -- might not look anything like life on Earth. But there are only so many chemical ingredients in the universe's pantry, and only so many ways to mix them. A team led by scientists at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has exploited those limitations to write a cookbook of hundreds of chemical recipes with the potential to give rise to life.

Their ingredient list could focus the search for life elsewhere in the universe by pointing out the most likely conditions -- planetary versions of mixing techniques, oven temperatures and baking times -- for the recipes to come together.

The process of progressing from basic chemical ingredients to the complex cycles of cell metabolism and reproduction that define life, the researchers say, requires not only a simple beginning but also repetition.

"The origin of life really is a something-from-nothing process," says Betül Kaçar, a NASA-supported astrobiologist and UW-Madison professor of bacteriology. "But that something can't happen just once. Life comes down to chemistry and conditions that can generate a self-reproducing pattern of reactions."

Chemical reactions that produce molecules that encourage the same reaction to happen again and again are called autocatalytic reactions. In a new study published Sept. 18 in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, Zhen Peng, a postdoctoral researcher in the Kaçar laboratory, and collaborators compiled 270 combinations of molecules -- involving atoms from all groups and series across the periodic table -- with the potential for sustained autocatalysis.

"It was thought that these sorts of reactions are very rare," says Kaçar. "We are showing that it's actually far from rare. You just need to look in the right place."

The researchers focused their search on what are called comproportionation reactions. In these reactions, two compounds that include the same element with different numbers of electrons, or reactive states, combine to create a new compound in which the element is in the middle of the starting reactive states.

To be autocatalytic, the outcome of the reaction also needs to provide starting materials for the reaction to occur again, so the output becomes a new input says Zach Adam, a co-author of the study and a UW-Madison geoscientist studying the origins of life on Earth. Comproportionation reactions result in multiple copies of some of the molecules involved, providing materials for the next steps in autocatalysis.

"If those conditions are right, you can start with relatively few of those outputs," Adam says. "Every time you take a turn of the cycle you spit out at least one extra output which speeds up the reaction and makes it happen even faster."

Autocatalysis is like a growing population of rabbits. Pairs of rabbits come together, produce litters of new rabbits, and then the new rabbits grow up to pair off themselves and make even more rabbits. It doesn't take many rabbits to soon have many more rabbits.

Looking for floppy ears and fuzzy tails out in the universe, however, probably isn't a winning strategy. Instead, Kaçar hopes chemists will pull ideas from the new study's recipe list and test them out in pots and pans simulating extraterrestrial kitchens.

"We will never definitively know what exactly happened on this planet to generate life. We don't have a time machine," Kaçar says. "But, in a test tube, we can create multiple planetary conditions to understand how the dynamics to sustain life can evolve in the first place."

Kaçar leads a NASA-supported consortium called MUSE, for Metal Utilization & Selection Across Eons. Her lab will focus on reactions including the elements molybdenum and iron, and she is excited to see what others cook up from the most exotic and unusual parts of the new recipe book.

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Shape-changing smart speaker lets users mute different areas of a room

In virtual meetings, it's easy to keep people from talking over each other. Someone just hits mute. But for the most part, this ability doesn't translate easily to recording in-person gatherings. In a bustling cafe, there are no buttons to silence the table beside you.

The ability to locate and control sound -- isolating one person talking from a specific location in a crowded room, for instance -- has challenged researchers, especially without visual cues from cameras.

A team led by researchers at the University of Washington has developed a shape-changing smart speaker, which uses self-deploying microphones to divide rooms into speech zones and track the positions of individual speakers. With the help of the team's deep-learning algorithms, the system lets users mute certain areas or separate simultaneous conversations, even if two adjacent people have similar voices. Like a fleet of Roombas, each about an inch in diameter, the microphones automatically deploy from, and then return to, a charging station. This allows the system to be moved between environments and set up automatically. In a conference room meeting, for instance, such a system might be deployed instead of a central microphone, allowing better control of in-room audio.

The team published its findings Sept. 21 in Nature Communications.

"If I close my eyes and there are 10 people talking in a room, I have no idea who's saying what and where they are in the room exactly. That's extremely hard for the human brain to process. Until now, it's also been difficult for technology," said co-lead author Malek Itani, a UW doctoral student in the Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering. "For the first time, using what we're calling a robotic 'acoustic swarm,' we're able to track the positions of multiple people talking in a room and separate their speech."

Previous research on robot swarms has required using overhead or on-device cameras, projectors or special surfaces. The UW team's system is the first to accurately distribute a robot swarm using only sound.

The team's prototype consists of seven small robots that spread themselves across tables of various sizes. As they move from their charger, each robot emits a high frequency sound, like a bat navigating, using this frequency and other sensors to avoid obstacles and move around without falling off the table. The automatic deployment allows the robots to place themselves for maximum accuracy, permitting greater sound control than if a person set them. The robots disperse as far from each other as possible since greater distances make differentiating and locating people speaking easier. Today's consumer smart speakers have multiple microphones, but clustered on the same device, they're too close to allow for this system's mute and active zones.

"If I have one microphone a foot away from me, and another microphone two feet away, my voice will arrive at the microphone that's a foot away first. If someone else is closer to the microphone that's two feet away, their voice will arrive there first," said co-lead authorTuochao Chen, a UW doctoral student in the Allen School. "We developed neural networks that use these time-delayed signals to separate what each person is saying and track their positions in a space. So you can have four people having two conversations and isolate any of the four voices and locate each of the voices in a room."

The team tested the robots in offices, living rooms and kitchens with groups of three to five people speaking. Across all these environments, the system could discern different voices within 1.6 feet (50 centimeters) of each other 90% of the time, without prior information about the number of speakers. The system was able to process three seconds of audio in 1.82 seconds on average -- fast enough for live streaming, though a bit too long for real-time communications such as video calls.

As the technology progresses, researchers say, acoustic swarms might be deployed in smart homes to better differentiate people talking with smart speakers. That could potentially allow only people sitting on a couch, in an "active zone," to vocally control a TV, for example.

Researchers plan to eventually make microphone robots that can move around rooms, instead of being limited to tables. The team is also investigating whether the speakers can emit sounds that allow for real-world mute and active zones, so people in different parts of a room can hear different audio. The current study is another step toward science fiction technologies, such as the "cone of silence" in "Get Smart" and"Dune," the authors write.

Of course, any technology that evokes comparison to fictional spy tools will raise questions of privacy. Researchers acknowledge the potential for misuse, so they have included guards against this: The microphones navigate with sound, not an onboard camera like other similar systems. The robots are easily visible and their lights blink when they're active. Instead of processing the audio in the cloud, as most smart speakers do, the acoustic swarms process all the audio locally, as a privacy constraint. And even though some people's first thoughts may be about surveillance, the system can be used for the opposite, the team says.

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Jellyfish, with no central brain, shown to learn from past experience

Even without a central brain, jellyfish can learn from past experiences like humans, mice, and flies, scientists report for the first time on September 22 in the journal Current Biology. They trained Caribbean box jellyfish (Tripedalia cystophora) to learn to spot and dodge obstacles. The study challenges previous notions that advanced learning requires a centralized brain and sheds light on the evolutionary roots of learning and memory.

No bigger than a fingernail, these seemingly simple jellies have a complex visual system with 24 eyes embedded in their bell-like body. Living in mangrove swamps, the animal uses its vision to steer through murky waters and swerve around underwater tree roots to snare prey. Scientists demonstrated that the jellies could acquire the ability to avoid obstacles through associative learning, a process through which organisms form mental connections between sensory stimulations and behaviors.

"Learning is the pinnacle performance for nervous systems," says first author Jan Bielecki of Kiel University, Germany. To successfully teach jellyfish a new trick, he says "it's best to leverage its natural behaviors, something that makes sense to the animal, so it reaches its full potential."

The team dressed a round tank with gray and white stripes to simulate the jellyfish's natural habitat, with gray stripes mimicking mangrove roots that would appear distant. They observed the jellyfish in the tank for 7.5 minutes. Initially, the jelly swam close to these seemingly far stripes and bumped into them frequently. But by the end of the experiment, the jelly increased its average distance to the wall by about 50%, quadrupled the number of successful pivots to avoid collision and cut its contact with the wall by half. The findings suggest that jellyfish can learn from experience through visual and mechanical stimuli.

"If you want to understand complex structures, it's always good to start as simple as you can," says senior author Anders Garm of the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. "Looking at these relatively simple nervous systems in jellyfish, we have a much higher chance of understanding all the details and how it comes together to perform behaviors."

The researchers then sought to identify the underlying process of jellyfish's associative learning by isolating the animal's visual sensory centers called rhopalia. Each of these structures houses six eyes and generates pacemaker signals that govern the jellyfish's pulsing motion, which spikes in frequency when the animal swerves from obstacles.

The team showed the stationary rhopalium moving gray bars to mimic the animal's approach to objects. The structure did not respond to light gray bars, interpreting them as distant. However, after the researchers trained the rhopalium with weak electric stimulation when the bars approach, it started generating obstacle-dodging signals in response to the light gray bars. These electric stimulations mimicked the mechanical stimuli of a collision. The findings further showed that combining visual and mechanical stimuli is required for associative learning in jellyfish and that the rhopalium serves as a learning center.

Next, the team plans to dive deeper into the cellular interactions of jellyfish nervous systems to tease apart memory formation. They also plan to further understand how the mechanical sensor in the bell works to paint a complete picture of the animal's associative learning.

Read more at Science Daily

Astronomers discover newborn galaxies with the James Webb Space Telescope

With the launch of the James Webb Space Telescope, astronomers are now able to peer so far back in time that we are approaching the epoch where we think that the first galaxies were created. Throughout most of the history of the Universe, galaxies seemingly tend to follow a tight relation between how many stars they have formed, and how many heavy elements they have formed. But for the first time we now see signs that this relation between the amount of stars and elements does not hold for the earliest galaxies. The reason is likely that these galaxies simply are in the process of being created, and have not yet had the time to create the heavy elements.

The Universe is teeming with galaxies -- immense collections of stars and gas -- and as we peer deep into the cosmos, we see them near and far. Because the light has spent more time reaching us, the farther away a galaxy is, we are essentially looking back through time, allowing us to construct a visual narrative of their evolution throughout the history of the Universe.

Observations have shown us that galaxies through the last 12 billion years -- that is, 5/6 of the age of the Universe -- have been living their life in a form of equilibrium: There appears to be a fundamental, tight relation between on one hand how many stars they have formed, and on the other hand how many heavy elements they have formed. In this context, "heavy elements," means everything heavier than hydrogen and helium.

This relation makes sense, because the Universe consisted originally only of these two lightest elements. All heavier elements, such as carbon, oxygen, and iron, was created later by the stars.

James Webb peers deeper

The very first galaxies should therefore be "unpolluted" by heavy elements. But until recently we haven't been able to look so far back in time. In addition to being far away, the reason is that the longer light travels through space, the redder it becomes. For the most distant galaxies you have to look all the way into the infrared part of the spectrum, and only with the launch of James Webb did we have a telescope big and sensitive enough to see so far.

And the space telescope did not disappoint: Several has James Webb broken its own record for the most distant galaxy, and now it finally seems that we are reaching the epoch where some of the very first galaxies were created.

In a new study, published today in the scientific journal Nature Astronomy, af team of astronomers from the Danish research center Cosmic Dawn Center at the Niels Bohr Institute and DTU Space in Copenhagen, has discovered what seems indeed to be some of the very first galaxies which are still in the process of being formed.

"Until recently it has been near-impossible to study how the first galaxies are formed in the early Universe, since we simply haven't had the adequate instrumentation. This has now changed completely with the launch of James Webb," says Kasper Elm Heintz, leader of the study and assistant professor at the Cosmic Dawn Center.

Fundamental relation breaks down

The relationship between the total stellar mass of the galaxy and the amount of heavy elements is a bit more complex than that. How fast the galaxy produces new stars also has something to say. But if you correct for that, you get a beautiful, linear relationship: The more massive the galaxy, the more heavy elements.

But this relation is now being challenged by the latest observations.

"When we analyzed the light from 16 of these first galaxies, we saw that they had significantly less heavy elements, compared to what you'd expect from their stellar masses and the amount of new stars they produced," says Kasper Elm Heintz.

In fact the galaxies turned out to have, on average, four times less amounts of heavy elements that in the later Universe. These results are in stark contrast to the current model where galaxies evolve in a form of equilibrium throughout most of the history of the Universe.

Predicted by theories

The result is not entirely surprising though. Theoretical models of galaxy formation, based on detailed computer programs, do predict something similar. But now we've seen it!

The explanation, as proposed by the autors in the article, is simply that we are witnessing galaxies in the process of being created. Gravity has gathered the first clumps of gas, which have begun to form stars.

If the galaxies then lived their lives undisturbed, the stars would quickly enrich them with heavy elements. But in between the galaxies at that time were large amounts of fresh, unpolluted gas, streaming down to the galaxies faster than the stars can keep up.

"The result gives us the first insight into the earliest stages of galaxy formation which appear to be more intimately connected with the gas in between the galaxies than we thought.

This is one of the first James Webb observations on this topic, so we're still waiting to see what the larger, more comprehensive observations that are currently being carried out can tell us.

Read more at Science Daily

Alarming results from world first study of two decades of global smoke pollution

The world's first study of the increase in pollution from landscape fires across the globe over the past two decades reveals that over 2 billion people are exposed to at least one day of potentially health-impacting environmental hazard annually -- a figure that has increased by 6.8 per cent in the last ten years.

The study highlights the severity and scale of the landscape fire-sourced air pollution, its increased impact on the world's population and associated rise in public health risk. Exposure to fire-sourced air pollution has many adverse health impacts, including increased mortality and morbidity and a global worsening of cardiorespiratory conditions and mental health.

The study, published today (20 September) in Nature led by Australian scientists, estimated the global daily air pollution from all fires from 2000 to 2019 -- finding that 2.18 billion people were exposed to at least one day of substantial landscape fire air pollution in each year, with each person in the world having on average 9.9 days of exposure per year, an increase of 2.1 per cent in the last decade. It also found that exposure levels in low-income countries were about four-fold higher than in high income countries.

Led by Professors Yuming Guo and Shanshan Li, from Monash University's School of Population Health and Preventive Medicine, the study also found that the exposure levels of PM2.5 were particularly high in Central Africa, Southeast Asia, South America and Siberia. The study also looked at global landscape fire-sourced ozone, an important fire-related pollutant has only been estimated for United States.

In the study, landscape fires refer to any fires burning in natural and cultural landscapes, e.g. natural and planted forest, shrub, grass, pastures, agricultural lands and peri-urban areas, including both planned or controlled fires (e.g., prescribed burns, agricultural fires) and wildfires (defined as uncontrolled or unplanned fires burning in wildland vegetation).

The comprehensive assessment of the global population exposures to fire-sourced PM2.5 and ozone during 2000-2019 was calculated using a machine learning approach with inputs from chemical transport models, ground-based monitoring stations, and gridded weather data.

The recent pollution from the Canadian wildfires that spread smoke across North America highlighted the increase in severity and frequency of landscape fires due to climate change. According to Professor Guo, no study to date has looked at the long-range effect of this increase in landscape fires globally and wildfires often impact remote areas where there are few or no air quality monitoring stations. In addition, in many low-income countries, there are no air quality monitoring stations even in urban areas.

"The exposure to air pollution caused by landscape fire smoke travelling hundreds and sometimes even thousands of kilometres can affect much larger populations, and cause much larger public health risks," he said.

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Scientists regenerate neurons that restore walking in mice after paralysis from spinal cord injury

In a new study in mice, a team of researchers from UCLA, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, and Harvard University have uncovered a crucial component for restoring functional activity after spinal cord injury. The neuroscientists have shown that re-growing specific neurons back to their natural target regions led to recovery, while random regrowth was not effective.

In a 2018 study published in Nature, the team identified a treatment approach that triggers axons -- the tiny fibers that link nerve cells and enable them to communicate -- to regrow after spinal cord injury in rodents. But even as that approach successfully led to the regeneration of axons across severe spinal cord lesions, achieving functional recovery remained a significant challenge.

For the new study, published this week in Science, the team aimed to determine whether directing the regeneration of axons from specific neuronal subpopulations to their natural target regions could lead to meaningful functional restoration after spinal cord injury in mice. They first used advanced genetic analysis to identify nerve cell groups that enable walking improvement after a partial spinal cord injury.

The researchers then found that merely regenerating axons from these nerve cells across the spinal cord lesion without specific guidance had no impact on functional recovery. However, when the strategy was refined to include using chemical signals to attract and guide the regeneration of these axons to their natural target region in the lumbar spinal cord, significant improvements in walking ability were observed in a mouse model of complete spinal cord injury.

"Our study provides crucial insights into the intricacies of axon regeneration and requirements for functional recovery after spinal cord injuries," said Michael Sofroniew, MD, PhD, professor of neurobiology at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA and a senior author of the new study. "It highlights the necessity of not only regenerating axons across lesions but also of actively guiding them to reach their natural target regions to achieve meaningful neurological restoration."

The authors say understanding that re-establishing the projections of specific neuronal subpopulations to their natural target regions holds significant promise for the development of therapies aimed at restoring neurological functions in larger animals and humans. However, the researchers also acknowledge the complexity of promoting regeneration over longer distances in non-rodents, necessitating strategies with intricate spatial and temporal features. Still, they conclude that applying the principles laid out in their work "will unlock the framework to achieve meaningful repair of the injured spinal cord and may expedite repair after other forms of central nervous system injury and disease."

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Astronomers find abundance of Milky Way-like Galaxies in early Universe, rewriting cosmic evolution theories

Galaxies from the early Universe are more like our own Milky Way than previously thought, flipping the entire narrative of how scientists think about structure formation in the Universe, according to new research published today.

Using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), an international team of researchers including those at The University of Manchester and University of Victoria in Canada discovered that galaxies like our own Milky Way dominate throughout the universe and are surprisingly common.

These galaxies go far back in the Universe's history with many of these galaxies forming 10 billion years ago or longer.

The Milky Way is a typical 'disk' galaxy, which a shape similar to a pancake or compact disk, rotating about its centre and often containing spiral arms. These galaxies are thought to be the most common in the nearby Universe and might be the types of galaxies where life can develop given the nature of their formation history.

However, astronomers previously considered that these types of galaxies were too fragile to exist in the early Universe when galaxy mergers were more common, destroying what we thought was their delicate shapes.

The new discovery, published today in the Astrophysical Journal, finds that these 'disk' galaxies are ten times more common than what astronomers believed based on previous observations with the Hubble Space Telescope.

Christopher Conselice, Professor of Extragalactic Astronomy at The University of Manchester, said: "Using the Hubble Space Telescope we thought that disk galaxies were almost non-existent until the Universe was about six billion years old, these new JWST results push the time these Milky Way-like galaxies form to almost the beginning of the Universe."

The research completely overturns the existing understanding of how scientists think our Universe evolves, and the scientists say new ideas need to be considered.

Lead author, Leonardo Ferreira from the University of Victoria, said: "For over 30 years it was thought that these disk galaxies were rare in the early Universe due to the common violent encounters that galaxies undergo. The fact that JWST finds so many is another sign of the power of this instrument and that the structures of galaxies form earlier in the Universe, much earlier in fact, than anyone had anticipated. "

It was once thought that disk galaxies such as the Milky Way were relatively rare through cosmic history, and that they only formed after the Universe was already middle aged.

Previously, astronomers using the Hubble Space Telescope believed that galaxies had mostly irregular and peculiar structures that resemble mergers. However, the superior abilities of JWST now allows us to see the true structure of these galaxies for the first time.

The researchers say that this is yet another sign that 'structure' in the Universe forms much quicker than anyone had anticipated.

Professor Conselice continues: "These JWST results show that disk galaxies like our own Milky Way, are the most common type of galaxy in the Universe. This implies that most stars exist and form within these galaxies which is changing our complete understanding of how galaxy formation occurs. These results also suggest important questions about dark matter in the early Universe which we know very little about."

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How to tackle the global deforestation crisis

Imagine if France, Germany, and Spain were completely blanketed in forests -- and then all those trees were quickly chopped down. That's nearly the amount of deforestation that occurred globally between 2001 and 2020, with profound consequences.

Deforestation is a major contributor to climate change, producing between 6 and 17 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to a 2009 study. Meanwhile, because trees also absorb carbon dioxide, removing it from the atmosphere, they help keep the Earth cooler. And climate change aside, forests protect biodiversity.

"Climate change and biodiversity make this a global problem, not a local problem," says MIT economist Ben Olken. "Deciding to cut down trees or not has huge implications for the world."

But deforestation is often financially profitable, so it continues at a rapid rate. Researchers can now measure this trend closely: In the last quarter-century, satellite-based technology has led to a paradigm change in charting deforestation. New deforestation datasets, based on the Landsat satellites, for instance, track forest change since 2000 with resolution at 30 meters, while many other products now offer frequent imaging at close resolution.

"Part of this revolution in measurement is accuracy, and the other part is coverage," says Clare Balboni, an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics (LSE). "On-site observation is very expensive and logistically challenging, and you're talking about case studies. These satellite-based data sets just open up opportunities to see deforestation at scale, systematically, across the globe."

Balboni and Olken have now helped write a new paper providing a road map for thinking about this crisis. The open-access article, "The Economics of Tropical Deforestation," appears this month in the Annual Review of Economics. The co-authors are Balboni, a former MIT faculty member; Aaron Berman, a PhD candidate in MIT's Department of Economics; Robin Burgess, an LSE professor; and Olken, MIT's Jane Berkowitz Carlton and Dennis William Carlton Professor of Microeconomics. Balboni and Olken have also conducted primary research in this area, along with Burgess.

So, how can the world tackle deforestation? It starts with understanding the problem.

Replacing forests with farms

Several decades ago, some thinkers, including the famous MIT economist Paul Samuelson in the 1970s, built models to study forests as a renewable resource; Samuelson calculated the "maximum sustained yield" at which a forest could be cleared while being regrown. These frameworks were designed to think about tree farms or the U.S. national forest system, where a fraction of trees would be cut each year, and then new trees would be grown over time to take their place.

But deforestation today, particularly in tropical areas, often looks very different, and forest regeneration is not common.

Indeed, as Balboni and Olken emphasize, deforestation is now rampant partly because the profits from chopping down trees come not just from timber, but from replacing forests with agriculture. In Brazil, deforestation has increased along with agricultural prices; in Indonesia, clearing trees accelerated as the global price of palm oil went up, leading companies to replace forests with palm tree orchards.

All this tree-clearing creates a familiar situation: The globally shared costs of climate change from deforestation are "externalities," as economists say, imposed on everyone else by the people removing forest land. It is akin to a company that pollutes into a river, affecting the water quality of residents.

"Economics has changed the way it thinks about this over the last 50 years, and two things are central," Olken says. "The relevance of global externalities is very important, and the conceptualization of alternate land uses is very important." This also means traditional forest-management guidance about regrowth is not enough. With the economic dynamics in mind, which policies might work, and why?

The search for solutions

As Balboni and Olken note, economists often recommend "Pigouvian" taxes (named after the British economist Arthur Pigou) in these cases, levied against people imposing externalities on others. And yet, it can be hard to identify who is doing the deforesting.

Instead of taxing people for clearing forests, governments can pay people to keep forests intact. The UN uses Payments for Environmental Services (PES) as part of its REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) program. However, it is similarly tough to identify the optimal landowners to subsidize, and these payments may not match the quick cash-in of deforestation. A 2017 study in Uganda showed PES reduced deforestation somewhat; a 2022 study in Indonesia found no reduction; another 2022 study, in Brazil, showed again that some forest protection resulted.

"There's mixed evidence from many of these [studies]," Balboni says. These policies, she notes, must reach people who would otherwise clear forests, and a key question is, "How can we assess their success compared to what would have happened anyway?"

Some places have tried cash transfer programs for larger populations. In Indonesia, a 2020 study found such subsidies reduced deforestation near villages by 30 percent. But in Mexico, a similar program meant more people could afford milk and meat, again creating demand for more agriculture and thus leading to more forest-clearing.

At this point, it might seem that laws simply banning deforestation in key areas would work best -- indeed, about 16 percent of the world's land overall is protected in some way. Yet the dynamics of protection are tricky. Even with protected areas in place, there is still "leakage" of deforestation into other regions.

Still more approaches exist, including "nonstate agreements," such as the Amazon Soy Moratorium in Brazil, in which grain traders pledged not to buy soy from deforested lands, and reduced deforestation without "leakage."

Also, intriguingly, a 2008 policy change in the Brazilian Amazon made agricultural credit harder to obtain by requiring recipients to comply with environmental and land registration rules. The result? Deforestation dropped by up to 60 percent over nearly a decade.

Politics and pulp

Overall, Balboni and Olken observe, beyond "externalities," two major challenges exist. One, it is often unclear who holds property rights in forests. In these circumstances, deforestation seems to increase. Two, deforestation is subject to political battles.

For instance, as economist Bard Harstad of Stanford University has observed, environmental lobbying is asymmetric. Balboni and Olken write: "The conservationist lobby must pay the government in perpetuity … while the deforestation-oriented lobby need pay only once to deforest in the present." And political instability leads to more deforestation because "the current administration places lower value on future conservation payments."

Even so, national political measures can work. In the Amazon from 2001 to 2005, Brazilian deforestation rates were three to four times higher than on similar land across the border, but that imbalance vanished once the country passed conservation measures in 2006. However, deforestation ramped up again after a 2014 change in government. Looking at particular monitoring approaches, a study of Brazil's satellite-based Real-Time System for Detection of Deforestation (DETER), launched in 2004, suggests that a 50 percent annual increase in its use in municipalities created a 25 percent reduction in deforestation from 2006 to 2016.

How precisely politics matters may depend on the context. In a 2021 paper, Balboni and Olken (with three colleagues) found that deforestation actually decreased around elections in Indonesia. Conversely, in Brazil, one study found that deforestation rates were 8 to 10 percent higher where mayors were running for re-election between 2002 and 2012, suggesting incumbents had deforestation industry support.

"The research there is aiming to understand what the political economy drivers are," Olken says, "with the idea that if you understand those things, reform in those countries is more likely."

Looking ahead, Balboni and Olken also suggest that new research estimating the value of intact forest land intact could influence public debates. And while many scholars have studied deforestation in Brazil and Indonesia, fewer have examined the Democratic Republic of Congo, another deforestation leader, and sub-Saharan Africa.

Deforestation is an ongoing crisis. But thanks to satellites and many recent studies, experts know vastly more about the problem than they did a decade or two ago, and with an economics toolkit, can evaluate the incentives and dynamics at play.

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Migratory birds can be taught to adjust to climate change

One result of climate change is that spring is arriving earlier. However, migratory birds are not keeping up with these developments and arrive too late for the peak in food availability when it is time for breeding. By getting the birds to fly a little further north, researchers in Lund, Sweden, and the Netherlands have observed that these birds can give their chicks a better start in life.

Global warming is causing problems for birds in Sweden and elsewhere. Warmer springs mean that caterpillars hatch, grow and pupate earlier compared with just a few decades ago. This has consequences for birds that cannot eat caterpillars that have entered the pupal stage. Therefore, when the food supply runs out at an ever earlier time in the spring, more and more chicks starve during the breeding season. This is a big problem for migratory birds that spend winters in Africa, as they do not know how early spring arrives in Sweden. Could the problem be solved if the migratory birds simply came home and started breeding earlier?

"It seems that our non-migratory birds are doing this to a certain extent. But, of course, they are present and can feel how early spring will come. We thought that perhaps the migratory birds could fly further north until they find a place with suitable well-developed caterpillars," says Jan-Åke Nilsson, biology researcher at Lund University in Sweden.

To test this in practice, the researchers decided to help some Pied Flycatchers along the way. The biologists caught Pied Flycatchers that had arrived prior to breeding in the Netherlands. The birds were then driven during the night to Vombs Fure, an area of pine forest outside Lund in Skåne, where they were released. The peak of caterpillar availability in Skåne is about two weeks later than in the Netherlands -- a distance of around 600 kilometres that a Pied Flycatcher could cover in just two nights.

"The birds that were given a lift from the Netherlands to Skåne synchronised very well with the food peak! As they started to breed about 10 days earlier the "Swedish" Pied Flycatchers they had a dramatically better breeding success than the Swedish ones as well as a better success than the Pied Flycatchers that remained in the Netherlands," says Jan-Åke Nilsson.

In addition, it was shown that the chicks of the Dutch Pied Flycatchers that had received migration assistance did not stop in the Netherlands when they returned after their first spring migration. Instead, they continued on to the area of pine forest outside Lund where they were born. Furthermore, they arrived earlier than the Swedish Pied Flycatchers and thereby had more well-fed chicks at Vombs Fure the year after the researchers gave the Pied Flycatchers a helping hand to find Skåne.

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